1Morocco vs HaitiWorld Cup
2026-06-21
BETHaiti Win
17.00
17.75
-0.2pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
99d ago
17.00
→
Expected Closing
17.75
Expected CLV
-0.2pp
Why
Haiti's odds have drifted significantly, creating a large positive closing edge of 22.47 percentage points. The model probability of 28.35% is much higher than the market's 5.88%, indicating strong value. The steam score of 99 and sharp repricing signal further support this bet. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical data could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-06-17
Pass
Ranked 52/86 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 53/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
Pass
Ranked 8/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
Tunisia shows a massive positive closing edge of 31.83 percentage points, with a model probability of 40.92% compared to the market's 9.09%. Strong steam and sharp repricing signals highlight market inefficiency. Main risk: Tunisia's lower ELO rating compared to the Netherlands could reflect a true skill gap.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 39/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
Pass
Ranked 62/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 8/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
The market has heavily steamed St. Albans Saints, pushing their odds from 1.7 to 2.05. However, the model probability (34.7%) is significantly lower than the market's implied probability (48.78%), indicating overvaluation. With a negative closing edge of -14.08 and no significant xG or Elo advantage, fading Altona Magic (away) aligns with contrarian principles. Main risk: St. Albans Saints' form may justify the market steam.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.05
2026-06-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=67, breadth=44%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=54.0h)
2026-06-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=65, breadth=36%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=29.9h)
Olympique Safi's odds have drifted from 1.95 to 2.45 despite strong market steam (97 steam score). The model probability (33.65%) is well below the market's implied probability (40.82%), suggesting overpricing. Elo and xG metrics also favor no clear advantage for Yacoub El Mansour. Fading the away side capitalizes on potential mispricing. Main risk: Market steam may reflect insider knowledge or lineup changes.
