Forfar Athletic shows a strong closing edge of 22.01 percentage points and a significant model probability of 33.77% compared to the market's 11.76%. The steam score is high at 92, indicating strong market activity. The match has low volatility, which reduces uncertainty. Main risk: The slight Elo disadvantage (-17.4) and the drift in odds suggest some market skepticism about Forfar's chances.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-07-11
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
—
Closing
@ 5.46
2Stirling Albion vs Dundee Utd0-1
✗ Incorrect
League Cup
2026-07-11
BETStirling Albion Win
13.00
13.18
-0.1pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
80d ago
13.00
→
Expected Closing
13.18
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Stirling Albion has an exceptional closing edge of 23.34 percentage points and a model probability of 31.03% compared to the market's 7.69%. The steam score of 85 and low volatility support the bet. Main risk: The significant Elo disadvantage (-101.3) could indicate a mismatch in team quality.
Linfield has the highest closing edge of 24.08 percentage points and a strong model probability of 39.46% compared to the market's 15.38%. The steam score of 84 and high market activity further validate the bet. Main risk: The high volatility and significant Elo disadvantage (190.7) could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
1Kaspiy vs Ordabasy3-2
✗ Incorrect
Premier League
2026-07-11
BETDraw
4.00
4.52
-2.9pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
80d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
4.52
Expected CLV
-2.9pp
Why
The closing edge of 4.63pp is within acceptable limits for a pattern replay, supported by a historical CLV positive rate of 52%. The market state shows sharp-led repricing, and the odds movement aligns with the model's probability. Main risk: Moderate pattern similarity (56.7%) could indicate less robust historical alignment.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size63
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+28.1%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-11
Candidate pick
@ 4.00
—
Closing
@ 4.52
2CRB vs GoiasSerie B
2026-07-11
FADEDraw
3.50
3.51
-0.1pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
80d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
3.51
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
The closing edge is significantly negative at -8.17pp, indicating a strong overreaction in the market. The model probability is much lower than the market probability, and the historical pattern similarity is weak at 45%. Main risk: Market drift could reverse, but the negative edge makes this unlikely.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size63
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+28.1%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=56, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=92.8h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=68, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=68.8h, hist_n=537, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-11
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
2026-07-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.50
2026-07-12
Pass
Ranked 12/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
80d ago
3.25
→
Expected Closing
2.28
Expected CLV
+13.1pp
Why
The market has heavily drifted against Qingdao Youth Island, with a significant move from 2.62 to 3.25 and a sharp drop in model probability (15.68% vs. 30.77% market). The strong drift signal and negative closing edge suggest the market is overreacting to Qingdao's chances. Main risk: Qingdao's form may still outperform the model's low probability.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.25
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=57, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=58.4h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=34.4h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
80d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
1.45
Expected CLV
+53.6pp
Why
Qingdao Jonoon's odds have drifted from 4.75 to 6.5, with a strong drift signal and a negative closing edge. The model probability (11.07%) is lower than the market's 15.38%, suggesting the market is overpricing Qingdao Jonoon's chances. Main risk: Qingdao Jonoon's xG differential of 1.82 could still pose a threat.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=105.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=81.8h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Pass
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-11
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
2026-07-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.50
2026-07-12
Pass
Ranked 4/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.93). Main risk: N/A.
