Poisson Calculator

What is Poisson Distribution in Sports Betting?

Poisson distribution is a statistical model used to predict the probability of specific events occurring within a fixed time period. In sports betting, it's particularly useful for analyzing prop bets based on counting statistics like goals, points, assists, or rebounds.

This calculator uses the Poisson formula to determine the probability of exactly, at least, or at most a certain number of events occurring, helping you evaluate the value of over/under and prop bets.

Expected Average Enter the expected average number of events

Proposition Enter the number of events to calculate probability for

Exactly K

At Least K

At Most K

How to Use This Calculator

The Poisson Calculator helps you estimate the probability of specific events occurring in sports betting. This is particularly useful for prop bets based on counting statistics.

Enter the expected average number of events (e.g., average number of goals, points, etc.)
Enter the number of events you want to calculate the probability for
The calculator will show you three probabilities:
- Exactly K: Probability of exactly K events occurring
- At Least K: Probability of K or more events occurring
- At Most K: Probability of K or fewer events occurring

Example: If a player averages 2.5 three-pointers per game, you can use this calculator to find the probability of them making exactly 3 three-pointers in a game, or the probability of them making at least 3 three-pointers.

Tips & Best Practices

Use season averages or recent form averages for more accurate predictions.
Poisson works best for independent events like goals, assists, or rebounds.
Consider external factors like injuries, weather, or game importance that may affect averages.
Compare calculated probabilities with sportsbook odds to identify value in prop bets.