Market Movements - Live Market Moves
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Monitor bookmaker line movement, market consensus, and late odds shifts before kickoff.
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hortaleza vs Sevilla | Sevilla | Draw ↓ -10.5% | -55.0 pp | Data Integrity Review Required |
| Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander | Racing Santander | Ribadesella CF ↓ -33.3% | -52.4 pp | Data Integrity Review Required |
| Palmeiras U20 vs Paysandu PA U20 | Palmeiras U20 | Paysandu PA U20 ↑ +90.0% | -47.9 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Køge vs Barcelona W | Barcelona W | Køge ↓ -19.6% | -47.2 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Benfica vs GIL Vicente | Benfica | GIL Vicente ↑ +65.2% | -36.6 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Gloria Bistriţa vs FCSB | FCSB | Gloria Bistriţa ↓ -7.1% | -32.9 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Al Ain vs Ajman | Al Ain | Draw ↓ -1.8% | -27.3 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Groningen vs Emmen | Groningen | Emmen ↑ +14.3% | -25.9 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Ávila vs Unionistas de Salamanca | Unionistas de Salamanca | ↑ +20.0% | 📉 Strong drift | 8/9 | Steam Score: 85 A+ |
| Palmeiras U20 vs Paysandu PA U20 | Paysandu PA U20 | ↑ +90.0% | 📉 Strong drift | 7/7 | Steam Score: 84 A+ |
| Xerez vs Cadiz | Cadiz | ↑ +25.7% | 📉 Strong drift | 9/10 | Steam Score: 81 A+ |
| Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | ↑ +30.0% | 📉 Strong drift | 7/8 | Steam Score: 80 A+ |
| Benfica vs GIL Vicente | GIL Vicente | ↑ +65.2% | 📉 Strong drift | 10/10 | Steam Score: 79 A+ |
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| Match(32) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Ávila vs Unionistas de Salamanca Copa del Rey · Thu 19:00 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 2.0 |
2.4
since pub · 20h 44m |
↑ +20.0%
2.0
2.4
🐢 Slow drift over 20h 44m 2.45 → 2.00 → 2.40 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
8/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +20.0%
Dafabet
↑ +7.5%
Betano
↑ +5.9%
1xBet
↑ +4.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +4.8%
BetVictor
↑ +4.5%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +4.5%
William Hill
↑ +2.2%
|
Steam Score:
85
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +44/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 8/9 books lengthened Unionistas de Salamanca together (20.0% drift, score 85) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Palmeiras U20 vs Paysandu PA U20 Copa do Brasil U20 · Thu 21:30 | Paysandu PA U20 | 10.0 |
19.0
kickoff in 22m |
↑ +90.0%
10.0
19.0
🐢 Slow drift over 25h 44m 29.00 → 10.00 → 19.00 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
7/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +90.0%
Betano
↑ +85.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +85.7%
Dafabet
↑ +73.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +49.2%
1xBet
↑ +46.7%
William Hill
↑ +11.5%
|
Steam Score:
84
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest move today | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/7 books lengthened Paysandu PA U20 together (90.0% drift, score 84) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Xerez vs Cadiz Copa del Rey · Thu 20:00 | Cadiz | 1.67 |
2.1
since pub · 44h 21m |
↑ +25.7%
1.67
2.1
🐢 Slow drift over 44h 21m 2.10 → 1.55 → 2.10 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
9/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +25.7%
Dafabet
↑ +22.6%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +17.9%
Betano
↑ +17.6%
Marathonbet
↑ +17.3%
1xBet
↑ +17.1%
William Hill
↑ +14.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +14.3%
BetVictor
↑ +5.9%
|
Steam Score:
81
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/10 books lengthened Cadiz together (25.7% drift, score 81) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik Liga Alef · Thu 19:15 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 5.0 |
6.5
since pub · 33h 44m |
↑ +30.0%
5.0
6.5
🐢 Slow drift over 33h 44m 7.90 → 4.80 → 6.50 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
7/8
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +34.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +33.9%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +30.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +25.2%
BetVictor
↑ +25.0%
Betano
↑ +25.0%
Dafabet
↑ +25.0%
|
Steam Score:
80
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +26/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/8 books lengthened Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel together (30.0% drift, score 80) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Benfica vs GIL Vicente Taça da Liga · Thu 20:45 | GIL Vicente | 5.75 |
9.5
since pub · 49h 3m |
↑ +65.2%
5.75
9.5
🐢 Slow drift over 49h 3m 10.05 → 5.03 → 9.50 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
10/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +65.2%
BetVictor
↑ +58.3%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +50.0%
William Hill
↑ +50.0%
SBO Sharp
↑ +49.7%
Marathonbet
↑ +45.9%
1xBet
↑ +44.3%
Dafabet
↑ +42.4%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +35.6%
Betano
↑ +35.4%
|
Steam Score:
79
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 10/10 books lengthened GIL Vicente together (65.2% drift, score 79) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense Copa del Rey · Thu 19:30 | UD Ourense | 1.8 |
2.45
since pub · 48h 17m |
↑ +36.1%
1.8
2.45
🐢 Slow drift over 48h 17m 2.48 → 1.80 → 2.45 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
9/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +36.1%
Dafabet
↑ +18.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +13.0%
1xBet
↑ +12.9%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +12.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +11.6%
William Hill
↑ +7.0%
Betano
↑ +5.5%
BetVictor
↑ +2.3%
|
Steam Score:
76
A+
Strong multi-book steam
Broad multi-book drift — odds lengthened across sportsbooks (market fade). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityHigh confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/10 books lengthened UD Ourense together (36.1% drift, score 76) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Køge vs Barcelona W UEFA Champions League Women · Thu 20:00 | Køge | 51.0 |
41.0
since pub · 87h 45m |
↓ -19.6%
51.0
41.0
🐢 Slow drift over 87h 45m 81.00 → 36.00 → 41.00 |
📈 Steam |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
4/7
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↓ -26.8%
William Hill
↓ -24.7%
Betano
↓ -20.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -19.6%
|
Steam Score:
74
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +43/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Køge (19.6%, 4/7) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Manchester City W vs Paris Saint Germain W UEFA Champions League Women · Thu 20:00 | Paris Saint Germain W | 5.0 |
6.0
since pub · 87h 45m |
↑ +20.0%
5.0
6.0
🐢 Slow drift over 87h 45m 6.50 → 5.00 → 6.00 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
9/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +20.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +17.8%
William Hill
↑ +16.0%
1xBet
↑ +15.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +14.8%
BetVictor
↑ +13.0%
Dafabet
↑ +11.1%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +9.1%
Betano
↑ +5.6%
|
Steam Score:
70
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +44/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/10 books lengthened Paris Saint Germain W together (20.0% drift, score 70) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| ACV vs AFC Amsterdam KNVB Beker · Thu 19:00 | AFC Amsterdam | 1.83 |
2.1
since pub · 32h 31m |
↑ +14.8%
1.83
2.1
🐢 Slow drift over 32h 31m 2.17 → 1.83 → 2.10 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +14.8%
Betano
↑ +14.6%
BetVictor
↑ +12.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.6%
Dafabet
↑ +12.6%
Marathonbet
↑ +9.1%
1xBet
↑ +9.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +7.7%
William Hill
↑ +7.5%
|
Steam Score:
66
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +33/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on AFC Amsterdam (14.8%, 9/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander Copa del Rey · Thu 20:00 | Ribadesella CF | 51.0 |
34.0
since pub · 8h 48m |
↓ -33.3%
51.0
34.0
↔ Gradual move over 8h 48m 51.00 → 23.00 → 34.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
3/7
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -33.3%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -21.7%
William Hill
↓ -12.2%
|
Steam Score:
65
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +13/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Largest underdog steam | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Ribadesella CF (33.3%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Serie A · Thu 23:00 | Vasco DA Gama | 3.6 |
4.2
kickoff in 112m |
↑ +16.7%
3.6
4.2
🐢 Slow drift over 157h 57m 4.30 → 3.40 → 4.20 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
9/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +17.1%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +16.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +15.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +15.7%
Betano
↑ +14.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +14.3%
1xBet
↑ +12.1%
Dafabet
↑ +12.0%
William Hill
↑ +11.8%
|
Steam Score:
61
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +37/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/9 books lengthened Vasco DA Gama together (16.7% drift, score 61) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos National 1 · Thu 19:45 | Thionville Lusitanos | 3.5 |
5.0
since pub · 157h 42m |
↑ +42.9%
3.5
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 157h 42m 5.25 → 3.50 → 5.00 |
📉 Strong drift | Bet365 |
7/10
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +42.9%
Betano
↑ +17.3%
William Hill
↑ +15.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.5%
1xBet
↑ +11.1%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +11.1%
Dafabet
↑ +7.1%
|
Steam Score:
60
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 7/10 books lengthened Thionville Lusitanos together (42.9% drift, score 60) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| Groningen vs Emmen KNVB Beker · Thu 20:00 | Emmen | 5.25 |
6.0
since pub · 32h 31m |
↑ +14.3%
5.25
6.0
🐢 Slow drift over 32h 31m 7.00 → 5.25 → 6.00 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: SBO |
8/10
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +16.7%
SBO Sharp
↑ +16.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +14.3%
1xBet
↑ +8.4%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.3%
Dafabet
↑ +6.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +5.5%
Betano
↑ +5.4%
|
Steam Score:
58
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +32/45
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Emmen (14.3%, 8/10) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima Primera División · Thu 20:30 | Sporting Cristal | 2.35 |
2.7
since pub · 87h 33m |
↑ +14.9%
2.35
2.7
🐢 Slow drift over 87h 33m 2.85 → 2.27 → 2.70 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
10/10
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +20.0%
Dafabet
↑ +18.3%
Marathonbet
↑ +17.6%
William Hill
↑ +17.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +14.9%
Betano
↑ +14.9%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +14.3%
SBO Sharp
↑ +13.2%
1xBet
↑ +12.2%
BetVictor
↑ +10.2%
|
Steam Score:
56
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +33/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Highest consensus move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Sporting Cristal (14.9%, 10/10) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Purmersteijn vs Gemert KNVB Beker · Thu 19:00 | Purmersteijn | 1.91 |
2.1
since pub · 32h 31m |
↑ +9.9%
1.91
2.1
🐢 Slow drift over 32h 31m 2.20 → 1.91 → 2.10 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
8/8
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +10.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +9.9%
Dafabet
↑ +9.1%
1xBet
↑ +8.9%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +8.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +7.5%
William Hill
↑ +7.3%
Betano
↑ +6.2%
|
Steam Score:
55
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -5
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Purmersteijn (9.9%, 8/8) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Everton vs Newcastle League Cup · Thu 19:45 | Everton | 2.2 |
2.35
since pub · 159h |
↑ +6.8%
2.2
2.35
🐢 Slow drift over 159h 2.44 → 2.08 → 2.35 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
8/10
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +8.5%
BetVictor
↑ +7.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +7.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.8%
SBO Sharp
↑ +6.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +5.7%
1xBet
↑ +5.6%
William Hill
↑ +4.5%
|
Steam Score:
50
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +15/45
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Pinnacle led repricing on Everton (6.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Gloria Bistriţa vs FCSB Cupa României · Thu 19:30 | Gloria Bistriţa | 7.0 |
6.5
since pub · 36h 50m |
↓ -7.1%
7.0
6.5
🐢 Slow drift over 36h 50m 11.50 → 5.61 → 6.50 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
7/10
Books moving same direction
Betano
↓ -42.6%
1xBet
↓ -36.7%
Dafabet
↓ -36.4%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -30.0%
Marathonbet
↓ -26.5%
William Hill
↓ -26.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -7.1%
|
Steam Score:
48
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +16/45
Book synchronization: +21/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Gloria Bistriţa (7.1%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Hortaleza vs Sevilla Copa del Rey · Thu 20:00 | Draw | 19.0 |
17.0
since pub · 8h 48m |
↓ -10.5%
19.0
17.0
↔ Gradual move over 8h 48m 29.00 → 11.00 → 17.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
2/6
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -10.5%
Betano
↓ -2.2%
|
Steam Score:
38
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +23/45
Book synchronization: +10/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Draw (10.5%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro Serie A · Thu 22:30 | Atletico-MG | 2.4 |
2.62
kickoff in 82m |
↑ +9.2%
2.4
2.62
🐢 Slow drift over 159h 2.74 → 2.34 → 2.62 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
10/10
Books moving same direction
Dafabet
↑ +11.6%
Betano
↑ +11.3%
1xBet
↑ +10.5%
BetVictor
↑ +9.6%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +9.6%
SBO Sharp
↑ +9.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +9.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +9.2%
William Hill
↑ +9.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +7.5%
|
Steam Score:
38
C
Limited conviction
Modest lengthening — treat as drift tracking rather than steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +20/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Atletico-MG (9.2%, 10/10) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Fiorentina vs Atalanta Serie A · Thu 19:45 | Draw | 3.4 |
3.7
since pub · 158h 23m |
↑ +8.8%
3.4
3.7
🐢 Slow drift over 158h 23m 3.86 → 3.10 → 3.70 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/10
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +16.1%
SBO Sharp
↑ +12.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +8.8%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +7.6%
Marathonbet
↑ +6.1%
Betano
↑ +5.7%
1xBet
↑ +4.9%
Dafabet
↑ +4.2%
William Hill
↑ +2.9%
|
Steam Score:
34
C
Limited conviction
Modest lengthening — treat as drift tracking rather than steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +19/45
Book synchronization: +27/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Draw (8.8%, 9/10) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Tigres FC vs Real Cartagena Primera B · Thu 21:00 | Tigres FC | 2.7 |
3.0
since pub · 23h 51m |
↑ +11.1%
2.7
3.0
🐢 Slow drift over 23h 51m 3.34 → 2.68 → 3.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
1/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +11.1%
|
Steam Score:
31
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +24/45
Book synchronization: +3/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Tigres FC (11.1%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Nouadhibou vs SNIM Premier League · Thu 19:50 | Nouadhibou | 1.73 |
1.73
since pub · 33h 44m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 1.75 → 1.62 → 1.73 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
7/7
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +1.9%
1xBet
↑ +1.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +1.8%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Betano
+0.0%
Betfair Sharp
+0.0%
William Hill
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
30
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Nouadhibou (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 7.7% — price repriced then reverted. |
| America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC Primera A · Thu 23:30 | Draw | 3.6 |
4.0
kickoff in 2h 22m |
↑ +11.1%
3.6
4.0
🐢 Slow drift over 1863h 42m 4.50 → 1.03 → 4.00 |
↘ Drift | Bet365 |
7/13
Books moving same direction
Betano
↑ +15.1%
888Sport
↑ +14.3%
William Hill
↑ +11.8%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +11.1%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +10.0%
1xBet
↑ +3.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +3.2%
|
Steam Score:
29
C
Limited conviction
Modest lengthening — treat as drift tracking rather than steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +24/45
Book synchronization: +16/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -20
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Draw (11.1%, 7/13) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna Copa del Rey · Thu 20:00 | Auriense | 41.0 |
41.0
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 41.00 → 28.00 → 41.00 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity | Bet365 |
3/3
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
William Hill
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
26
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Auriense (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 37.7% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Fajr Sepasi vs Tractor Sazi Persian Gulf Pro League · Thu 13:15 | Fajr Sepasi | 4.82 |
4.82
since pub · 60h 36m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 4.82 → 4.55 → 4.82 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity | 1xBet |
2/2
Books moving same direction
1xBet
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
24
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 46% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Illiquid | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Fajr Sepasi (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 5.8% — price repriced then reverted. |