Market Movements - Live Market Moves
Track real-time closing odds movement across major football sportsbooks. Compare opening lines, current market prices, steam moves, and sharp betting activity to identify potential Closing Line Value (CLV) opportunities.
Monitor bookmaker line movement, market consensus, and late odds shifts before kickoff.
📊 Top Edge Today
Largest fair-vs-market gaps before kickoff — AI value side vs where money is flowing.
| Match | AI Edge | Market Move | Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marino vs Finland | Finland | San Marino ↑ +23.8% | -49.5 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Slovakia vs Moldova | Slovakia | Draw ↑ +27.3% | -41.7 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| Iceland vs Estonia | Iceland | Estonia ↑ +10.0% | -36.2 pp | Model Breakdown Risk |
| USA vs Peru | USA | Peru ↓ -10.7% | -27.1 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Albania vs Belarus | Albania | Albania ↑ +2.0% | -26.0 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Canada vs Chile | Canada | Chile ↓ -4.8% | -20.7 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg | Luxembourg | Luxembourg ↑ +4.6% | +16.7 pp | Strong Disagreement |
| Longford Town vs Cork City | Cork City | Longford Town ↑ +6.7% | -14.0 pp | Strong Market Ahead |
🔥 Top market moves
The biggest market moves and sportsbook repricing detected in this window.
| Match | Side | Move | Signal | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia vs Moldova | Draw | ↑ +27.3% | 📉 Strong drift | 9/9 | Steam Score: 74 A |
| San Marino vs Finland | San Marino | ↑ +23.8% | 📉 Strong drift | 8/8 | Steam Score: 74 A |
| USA vs Peru | Peru | ↓ -10.7% | 📈 Steam | 7/9 | Steam Score: 63 A |
| Goias vs Atletico Goianiense | Atletico Goianiense | ↓ -9.0% | 📈 Steam | 6/9 | Steam Score: 56 B |
| Czech Republic vs Croatia | Czech Republic | ↑ +4.8% | ⚡ Sharp-led move | 9/9 | Steam Score: 52 B |
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| Match(20) | Side | Open | Current | Move | Signal | Ref book | Market Breadth? Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. Number of sportsbooks confirming the same directional move. | Steam Score? Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. Measures how aggressively odds moved across sharp sportsbooks. | Context | Market state | CLV Validation? Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. Opening vs closing on the largest-move side — descriptive only, not strategy performance. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovakia vs Moldova UEFA Nations League · Sat 18:45 | Draw | 5.5 |
7.0
kickoff in 18h 19m |
↑ +27.3%
5.5
7.0
🐢 Slow drift over 93h 21m 7.70 → 4.53 → 7.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +54.0%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +52.0%
1xBet
↑ +39.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +31.5%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +28.8%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +27.3%
Betano
↑ +24.5%
William Hill
↑ +20.8%
SBO Sharp
↑ +13.2%
|
Steam Score:
74
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 9/9 books lengthened Draw together (27.3% drift, score 74) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| San Marino vs Finland UEFA Nations League · Sat 16:00 | San Marino | 21.0 |
26.0
kickoff in 15h 34m |
↑ +23.8%
21.0
26.0
🐢 Slow drift over 93h 21m 50.00 → 15.88 → 26.00 |
📉 Strong drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
8/8
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +69.2%
1xBet
↑ +47.1%
William Hill
↑ +41.4%
BetVictor
↑ +34.8%
SBO Sharp
↑ +27.2%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +23.8%
Betano
↑ +20.8%
Marathonbet
↑ +12.5%
|
Steam Score:
74
A
Strong sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +45/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +14/14
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 10% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | 8/8 books lengthened San Marino together (23.8% drift, score 74) — broad market fade, not a single-book blip. |
| USA vs Peru Friendlies · Sat 20:30 | Peru | 7.0 |
6.25
since pub · 21h 43m |
↓ -10.7%
7.0
6.25
🐢 Slow drift over 21h 43m 7.65 → 5.20 → 6.25 |
📈 Steam |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
7/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↓ -25.7%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -11.5%
Betfair Sharp
↓ -11.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -10.7%
Betano
↓ -10.3%
Marathonbet
↓ -7.6%
1xBet
↓ -7.5%
|
Steam Score:
63
A
Strong sharp signal
Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityStrong confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +24/45
Book synchronization: +23/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Peru (10.7%, 7/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Goias vs Atletico Goianiense Serie B · Sat 21:30 | Atletico Goianiense | 3.1 |
2.82
kickoff in 21h 4m |
↓ -9.0%
3.1
2.82
🐢 Slow drift over 103h 51m 3.39 → 2.81 → 2.82 |
📈 Steam |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
6/9
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -12.7%
1xBet
↓ -11.6%
Marathonbet
↓ -10.5%
Betano
↓ -10.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -9.0%
William Hill
↓ -6.5%
|
Steam Score:
56
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +20/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +10/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Multi-book steam on Atletico Goianiense (9.0%, 6/9) — aligned shortening, not a single-book blip. |
| Czech Republic vs Croatia UEFA Nations League · Sat 18:45 | Czech Republic | 3.1 |
3.25
kickoff in 18h 19m |
↑ +4.8%
3.1
3.25
🐢 Slow drift over 117h 14m 3.50 → 2.86 → 3.25 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↑ +13.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +12.9%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +11.2%
1xBet
↑ +10.5%
Marathonbet
↑ +8.9%
SBO Sharp
↑ +6.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +4.8%
Betano
↑ +4.8%
William Hill
↑ +3.3%
|
Steam Score:
52
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +11/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Czech Republic (4.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| England vs Spain UEFA Nations League · Sat 18:45 | England | 2.75 |
3.1
kickoff in 18h 19m |
↑ +12.7%
2.75
3.1
🐢 Slow drift over 117h 14m 3.40 → 2.60 → 3.10 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +30.8%
BetVictor
↑ +19.6%
1xBet
↑ +14.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +12.7%
Marathonbet
↑ +10.2%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +9.4%
Betano
↑ +8.2%
SBO Sharp
↑ +8.1%
William Hill
↑ +5.5%
|
Steam Score:
51
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +28/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on England (12.7%, 9/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Faroe Islands vs Kazakhstan UEFA Nations League · Sat 16:00 | Kazakhstan | 3.25 |
3.4
kickoff in 15h 34m |
↑ +4.6%
3.25
3.4
🐢 Slow drift over 93h 21m 3.50 → 2.62 → 3.40 |
⚡ Sharp-led move |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +33.1%
1xBet
↑ +24.0%
Marathonbet
↑ +21.8%
BetVictor
↑ +21.5%
William Hill
↑ +18.3%
SBO Sharp
↑ +9.9%
Betano
↑ +6.3%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +4.6%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +3.1%
|
Steam Score:
51
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +10/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Betfair led repricing on Kazakhstan (4.6%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Iceland vs Estonia UEFA Nations League · Sat 16:00 | Estonia | 10.0 |
11.0
kickoff in 15h 34m |
↑ +10.0%
10.0
11.0
🐢 Slow drift over 93h 21m 12.50 → 6.76 → 11.00 |
↘ Drift |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
9/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +47.1%
1xBet
↑ +33.3%
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +31.9%
Marathonbet
↑ +30.7%
BetVictor
↑ +29.4%
Betano
↑ +25.0%
William Hill
↑ +25.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +10.0%
SBO Sharp
↑ +4.3%
|
Steam Score:
45
B
Moderate sharp signal
Noticeable drift — odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam). Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +22/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +8/8
Slow Drift Duration: -15
Volatility adjustment: -10
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Top 25% move | Market drift | Waiting for Close | Multi-book drift on Estonia (10.0%, 9/9) — aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side. |
| Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki III Liga - Group 1 · Sat 14:00 | Draw | 3.8 |
3.68
since pub · 7h 46m |
↓ -3.2%
3.8
3.68
↔ Gradual move over 7h 46m |
↗ Market support | 1xBet |
1/1
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↓ -3.2%
|
Steam Score:
44
C
Limited conviction
Noticeable line movement, though without clear sharp-book leadership. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence signal — treat as tracking only.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +7/45
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
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— | Illiquid | Waiting for Close | Market support on Draw (3.2%) — 1/1 books shortening the line. |
| Canada vs Chile Friendlies · Sat 23:00 | Chile | 5.25 |
5.0
since pub · 21h 43m |
↓ -4.8%
5.25
5.0
🐢 Slow drift over 21h 43m 5.50 → 4.53 → 5.00 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
6/9
Books moving same direction
BetVictor
↓ -8.0%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -4.8%
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -4.2%
1xBet
↓ -3.9%
Marathonbet
↓ -2.9%
Betano
↓ -2.0%
|
Steam Score:
42
B
Moderate sharp signal
A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityMedium confidence signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +11/45
Book synchronization: +20/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Chile (4.8%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Slovenia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League · Sat 13:00 | Slovenia | 2.55 |
2.45
kickoff in 12h 34m |
↓ -3.9%
2.55
2.45
🐢 Slow drift over 117h 14m 2.70 → 2.43 → 2.45 |
⚡ Sharp-led move | Bet365 |
5/9
Books moving same direction
Betano
↓ -4.8%
Marathonbet
↓ -4.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -3.9%
William Hill
↓ -3.8%
1xBet
↓ -3.3%
|
Steam Score:
36
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +9/45
Book synchronization: +17/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Signal conviction: +5/5
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Sharp repricing | Waiting for Close | Bet365 led repricing on Slovenia (3.9%) — sharp book moved before wider follow-through. |
| Olimpia Zambrów vs Pelikan Łowicz III Liga - Group 1 · Sat 13:00 | Olimpia Zambrów | 2.9 |
2.9
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line |
— Tracking | Bet365 |
3/4
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Betano
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
28
C
Limited conviction
Movement is modest or fragmented — treat as tracking rather than strong steam. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence signal — treat as tracking only.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +22/30
Books reacting: +6/10
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— | Discovery | Waiting for Close | Stable line on Olimpia Zambrów — tracking only (0.0% vs. open). |
| Osasco Audax U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 Paulista - U20 · Sat 18:00 | Osasco Audax U20 | 2.4 |
2.4
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 2.55 → 2.40 → 2.40 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
4/4
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +0.8%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Betfair Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
28
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +30/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Osasco Audax U20 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 6.1% — price repriced then reverted. |
| The Strongest vs Guabirá Copa de la División Profesional · Sat 21:15 | The Strongest | 1.27 |
1.27
since pub · 117m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 1.32 → 1.15 → 1.27 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity | Bet365 |
5/6
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +0.8%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
BetVictor
+0.0%
Betano
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
25
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +25/30
Books reacting: +10/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on The Strongest (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 13.8% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife Serie B · Sat 19:30 | Sport Recife | 2.8 |
3.0
kickoff in 19h 4m |
↑ +7.1%
2.8
3.0
🐢 Slow drift over 75h 51m 3.25 → 2.70 → 3.00 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
2/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +7.1%
BetVictor
↑ +5.6%
|
Steam Score:
23
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +16/45
Book synchronization: +8/30
Books reacting: +4/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Sport Recife (swing 3.25 → 2.70 → 3.00) — net 7.1% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Hungary U19 vs Bulgaria U19 Friendlies · Sat 14:00 | Hungary U19 | 1.8 |
1.8
since pub · <1m |
+0.0%
— Stable line 1.90 → 1.80 → 1.80 |
ℹ️ Low-intensity market activity |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Pinnacle |
4/5
Books moving same direction
1xBet
↑ +1.6%
Bet365 Sharp
+0.0%
Marathonbet
+0.0%
Pinnacle Sharp
+0.0%
|
Steam Score:
22
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Book synchronization: +24/30
Books reacting: +8/10
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Net move flat on Hungary U19 (0.0%), but intraday swing reached 5.4% — price repriced then reverted. |
| Longford Town vs Cork City First Division · Sat 18:30 | Longford Town | 3.75 |
4.0
kickoff in 18h 4m |
↑ +6.7%
3.75
4.0
🐢 Slow drift over 39h 44m 4.39 → 3.54 → 4.00 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
1/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +6.7%
|
Steam Score:
16
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +15/45
Book synchronization: +4/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Longford Town (swing 4.39 → 3.54 → 4.00) — net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Albania vs Belarus UEFA Nations League · Sat 18:45 | Albania | 1.5 |
1.53
kickoff in 18h 19m |
↑ +2.0%
1.5
1.53
— Stable line 1.55 → 1.40 → 1.53 |
⚠️ Volatile market |
Bet365
Sharp-led move: Betfair |
3/9
Books moving same direction
Betfair Sharp
↑ +10.0%
BetVictor
↑ +4.8%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +2.0%
|
Steam Score:
16
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +4/45
Book synchronization: +10/30
Books reacting: +6/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Albania (swing 1.55 → 1.40 → 1.53) — net 2.0% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Operario-PR vs Ceara Serie B · Sat 19:30 | Operario-PR | 2.15 |
2.05
kickoff in 19h 4m |
↓ -4.7%
2.15
2.05
🐢 Slow drift over 45h 26m 2.20 → 2.05 → 2.05 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
1/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -4.7%
|
Steam Score:
12
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +10/45
Book synchronization: +4/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Operario-PR (swing 2.20 → 2.05 → 2.05) — net 4.7% but intraday chop is elevated. |
| Bulgaria vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League · Sat 16:00 | Luxembourg | 3.25 |
3.4
kickoff in 15h 34m |
↑ +4.6%
3.25
3.4
🐢 Slow drift over 93h 21m 4.15 → 2.99 → 3.40 |
⚠️ Volatile market | Bet365 |
1/9
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +4.6%
|
Steam Score:
11
C
Limited conviction
Price swings look choppy — volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal. Why It Matters
Historically:
50-60 = 20% beat the closing line
60-70 = 64% beat the closing line
70+ = 71% beat the closing line
Key drivers
ReliabilityLow confidence — elevated volatility undermines the signal.
Score breakdown
Move magnitude: +10/45
Book synchronization: +3/30
Books reacting: +2/10
Sharp-book leadership: +6/6
Volatility adjustment: -10
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— | Volatile | Waiting for Close | Volatile two-way pricing on Luxembourg (swing 4.15 → 2.99 → 3.40) — net 4.6% but intraday chop is elevated. |
