Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie B / Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife

Prediction Audit: Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Sep 26, 2026 - 19:30
3 1.30
1 1.13
xG Accuracy: 60%
Sport Recife Sport Recife

AI correctly predicted the Nautico Recife win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Nautico Recife Nautico Recife ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Nautico Recife -2.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nautico Recife 39.1% 41.4% -2.2 pp Aligned
Draw 30.6% 29.6% +1.0 pp Aligned
Sport Recife 30.3% 29.1% +1.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Nautico Recife win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Nautico Recife win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nautico Recife 39.1% · Draw 30.6% · Sport Recife 30.3%
    • xG · Nautico Recife 1.30 — Sport Recife 1.13
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nautico Recife 2.33 · Draw 3.26 · Sport Recife 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Nautico Recife 41.4% · Draw 29.6% · Sport Recife 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nautico Recife 2.33 · Draw 3.26 · Sport Recife 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Nautico Recife 41.4% · Draw 29.6% · Sport Recife 29.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nautico Recife win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 88/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 03:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10119277

Closing Odds 2.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nautico Recife win · Nautico Recife 3–1 Sport Recife
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie B
  • Fixture: Nautico Recife vs Sport Recife
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.1% · Draw 30.6% · Away 30.3%
  • xG (showing): Nautico Recife 1.3 — Sport Recife 1.13 (total xG ≈ 2.43)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 53.0% · Probability edge: +3.2 pts · Est. EV: +4.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.9% · No 49.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B Serie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
2 Juventude 30 15 8 7 53
3 Fortaleza EC 30 14 10 6 52
4 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 51
5 Criciuma 30 14 8 8 50
6 Atletico Goianiense 30 13 10 7 49
7 CRB 30 14 6 10 48
8 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 48
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 44
10 Cuiaba 30 10 13 7 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 42
12 São Bernardo 30 11 9 10 42
13 Athletic Club 30 10 12 8 42
14 Nautico Recife 30 11 8 11 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32
17 Avai 30 8 6 16 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 28
19 America Mineiro 30 4 5 21 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 49 27 +22 51
2 CRB 30 45 41 +4 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 Operario-PR 30 43 38 +5 48
5 São Bernardo 30 40 31 +9 42
6 Sport Recife 30 40 32 +8 44
7 Londrina 30 39 43 -4 28
8 Nautico Recife 30 38 37 +1 41
9 Atletico Goianiense 30 37 27 +10 49
10 Athletic Club 30 36 33 +3 42
11 Fortaleza EC 30 35 26 +9 52
12 Ceara 30 33 39 -6 36
13 Juventude 30 32 19 +13 53
14 Botafogo SP 29 32 36 -4 32
15 Criciuma 30 31 27 +4 50
16 Cuiaba 30 30 25 +5 43
17 Goias 30 30 36 -6 42
18 Avai 30 30 41 -11 30
19 America Mineiro 30 21 50 -29 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 17 62 -45 13
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Novorizontino 30 17.2 9.2 +8.0 51
2 Fortaleza EC 30 16.8 10.1 +6.7 52
3 Cuiaba 30 12.3 7.0 +5.3 43
4 Atletico Goianiense 30 15.2 11.1 +4.1 49
5 Avai 30 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 30 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 30 10.2 8.0 +2.2 53
9 Criciuma 30 10.0 8.1 +1.9 50
10 Sport Recife 30 13.7 12.6 +1.1 44
11 Londrina 30 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 30 12.6 12.6 0.0 42
13 Botafogo SP 29 13.7 13.8 -0.1 32
14 Nautico Recife 30 15.3 16.1 -0.8 41
15 Goias 30 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operario-PR 30 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceara 30 9.1 14.2 -5.1 36
18 America Mineiro 30 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 30 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 29 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13
Serie B Brazil. Serie B Predictions