1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Fortaleza EC
- Model probability
- 48.1%
- Market probability
- 52.8%
- Difference
- -4.7 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -12.2%
No Value Edge
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife Prediction
Model and market gates cleared for a Primary position.
Primary Bet
6.9/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Consensus EV
+7.3%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
4.7 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
65/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 48.1% |
| Market (no-vig) | 52.8% |
| Difference | +4.7 pp |
Market aligns with model lean
Why This Clears Primary Decision Gate
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+7.3%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Fortaleza EC
Risk factors
- ✗Market moved against Nautico Recife4.33 → 4.75 · ↑ +9.7%
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+13% EV → consensus +7.3%
- ✓No blocking risk gates for Primary
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Nautico Recife · ↑ +9.7%
Breadth
4/8
Books moving same direction
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +9.7%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +9.7%
BetVictor
↑ +3.1%
Marathonbet
↑ +2.8%
Move Score
37 (C)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseMarket drift
StatusDrift
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 49.9%
- Market probability (Over)
- 45.0%
- Difference
- +4.9 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -1.5%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 54.0%
- Market probability
- 48.1%
- Difference
- +5.9 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -2.2%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 54.0%
BTTS No 46.0%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 11.9%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 12.3%
- Difference
- -0.4 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -3.6%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 11.9%
- 1-0 11.1%
- 2-1 9.5%
- 2-0 8.9%
- 0-1 7.4%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 4.75
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Fortaleza EC at 48.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Fortaleza EC as the value side (48.1%)
- Market broadly agrees with the direction
- Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates
Action
Compare best available odds before sizing.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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