1Jordan vs ArgentinaWorld Cup
2026-06-28
BETJordan Win
19.00
19.00
+0.0pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
93d ago
19.00
→
Expected Closing
19.00
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Jordan shows a massive positive closing edge of 34.04 percentage points and strong steam signals, indicating significant market interest despite high volatility. The model probability of 39.3% far exceeds the market's 5.26%, suggesting value. Main risk: Argentina's superior Elo rating and potential market overreaction to steam.
KPV-j has a strong closing edge of 20.41 percentage points and a model probability of 39.46%, significantly higher than the market's 19.05%. The steam score of 96 supports the bet, and the low volatility reduces risk. Main risk: Moderate Elo advantage for PKKU could challenge the model's edge.
Norrby IF has a strong closing edge of 30.77 percentage points and a model probability of 48.16%, far exceeding the market's 17.39%. The sharp-led signal and pattern similarity of 45% further validate the value. Main risk: Elo and xG disadvantages could limit upside.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-06-23
Pass
Ranked 24/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 32/151 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.62). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 45/115 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.62). Main risk: N/A.
1BIT vs Tai'an Tiankuang1-1
✓ Correct
League Two
2026-06-28
FADEDraw
3.25
3.35
-0.9pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
93d ago
3.25
→
Expected Closing
3.35
Expected CLV
-0.9pp
Why
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative closing edge (-1.13pp), suggesting overreaction to sharp-led signals. Historical CLV is marginally positive (52%), but the pattern similarity is moderate (60%). Main risk: The low volatility and sharp-led signals could still align with a draw outcome.
The sharp-led market repricing and significant odds drop (-12.3%) suggest an overreaction. Despite a strong model edge (7.99pp) and historical CLV (52%), the pattern similarity is low (50%), reducing confidence in the replayability of this scenario. Main risk: Sharp-led signals may still align with the draw outcome.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size83
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+29.5%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.64
2026-06-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%; edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis). (Current: steam=57, breadth=50%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=83.8h)
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%; edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis). (Current: steam=57, breadth=50%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=62.3h)
1Carolina Core vs Huntsville City1-0
✗ Incorrect
MLS Next Pro
2026-06-28
FADEContrarianHuntsville City Win
2.38
2.49
-1.9pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
93d ago
2.38
→
Expected Closing
2.49
Expected CLV
-1.9pp
Why
Carolina Core has seen strong steam with odds drifting from 2.0 to 2.38, but the model probability (31.94%) is below the market's 42.02%. The Elo difference of -92.3 and slightly negative xG differential suggest Carolina Core is overvalued. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Carolina Core's home advantage.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
93d ago
2.35
→
Expected Closing
2.65
Expected CLV
-4.8pp
Why
Universidad de Concepcion has been steamed with odds shortening from 2.1 to 2.35, but the model probability (36.11%) is below the market's 42.55%. The Elo difference slightly favors Universidad de Concepcion, but the xG difference is negligible. Main risk: Universidad de Concepcion's form may justify the market move.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.35
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=48, breadth=78%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=35.1h, hist_n=319, hist_clv_rate=3%)
