Qingdao Jonoon has a strong steam signal and a significant closing edge (+28.97). The model probability (46.36%) is much higher than the market probability (17.39%), and the xG difference (+0.36) suggests potential value. Main risk: Negative elo difference indicates potential team weakness.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-07-01
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/87, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/91, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/101, pre-LLM score 96.52). Main risk: N/A.
9 de Julio Rafaela shows strong steam signals with a significant closing edge (+17.33) and sharp market repricing. Despite high volatility and negative elo/xG differences, the model probability (40.42%) is much higher than the market probability (23.09%), indicating value. Main risk: High volatility and negative team metrics.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-07-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=42.8h, hist_n=282, hist_clv_rate=3%)
Dandenong Thunder has a strong model probability (40.42%) compared to market probability (12.5%), with a substantial closing edge (+27.92). The sharp-led signal and low volatility further support this pick. Main risk: Negative elo and xG differences may indicate weaker team performance.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing, and the steam score is high at 43, indicating significant market activity. However, the closing edge is only 5.67pp, which is below the 8pp threshold, and the historical CLV is slightly positive at 52%. The main risk is that the sharp-led movement could indicate genuine market sentiment, but the low edge and historical pattern suggest a contrarian fade. Main risk: Line may move against the entry after posting.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size73
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+29.6%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.20
2026-06-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-04
Pass
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-06
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=88, breadth=77%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=32.3h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=8.3h, hist_n=548, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The sharp-led market movement and negative closing edge (-3.7pp) suggest overreaction, especially with a significant drop in odds from 3.2 to 3.0. Historical CLV is neutral at 52%, and pattern similarity is relatively low at 46.6%. Main risk: The sharp money could still be correct, but the negative edge and market overreaction justify a fade.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size73
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+29.6%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.00
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=40.5h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=40.1h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=39.7h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=30.8h, hist_n=282, hist_clv_rate=3%)
1Botafogo SP vs AvaiSerie B
2026-07-05
FADEValuation disagreementBotafogo SP Win
4.75
1.90
+31.6pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
86d ago
4.75
→
Expected Closing
1.90
Expected CLV
+31.6pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed Avai, pushing their odds significantly higher. However, the model probability for Avai is much lower than the market's, and the closing edge is deeply negative. This suggests the market may have overreacted to the initial steam. Fading the home side, Botafogo SP, aligns with the contrarian approach. Main risk: Botafogo SP's stronger xG and elo advantage could still dominate.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
Update
@ 4.75
2026-07-02
Replaced with updated pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-07-04
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/10, pre-LLM score 79.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-07-06
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=20.8h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
—
Closing
@ 1.90
2Kaisar vs Irtysh0-0
✗ Incorrect
Premier League
2026-07-05
FADEContrarianKaisar Win
2.62
2.19
+7.5pp
68
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
86d ago
2.62
→
Expected Closing
2.19
Expected CLV
+7.5pp
Why
Irtysh has seen strong steam, but the model probability is close to the market's, and the closing edge is slightly negative. This indicates limited value in the steam move. Fading the home side, Kaisar, leverages the contrarian angle. Main risk: Kaisar's home advantage and slightly better elo rating could prevail.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.62
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=47.5h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=47.1h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=52, breadth=60%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=46.7h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=42, breadth=43%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=37.8h, hist_n=238, hist_clv_rate=4%)
