1Kairat Almaty vs Sutjeska2-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-08
BETSutjeska Win
8.50
13.29
-4.2pp
78
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
84d ago
8.50
→
Expected Closing
13.29
Expected CLV
-4.2pp
Why
Sutjeska shows strong steam (97) and significant closing edge (24.35). The model probability (36.11%) far exceeds the market probability (11.76%), suggesting value. Main risk: Elo difference favors Kairat Almaty, indicating a stronger team on paper.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-07-07
Pass
Ranked 5/52 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.33). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
—
Closing
@ 13.29
2Dila vs Virtus3-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-08
BETVirtus Win
15.00
14.49
+0.2pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
84d ago
15.00
→
Expected Closing
14.49
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Virtus has a high closing edge (25.27) and strong steam (86). The model probability (31.94%) is significantly higher than the market probability (6.67%), indicating value. Main risk: Extremely high odds reflect low market confidence in Virtus.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=62.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-09
Replaced with updated pick
@ 19.00(Candidate pick 15.00)
—
Closing
@ 14.49
3Manta FC vs Orense SC0-0
✗ Incorrect
Liga Pro
2026-07-08
BETManta FC Win
2.87
2.89
-0.2pp
80
⚡
▾
Entry
84d ago
2.87
→
Expected Closing
2.89
Expected CLV
-0.2pp
Why
Manta FC has a strong closing edge (24.4) and a model probability (59.24%) that is much higher than the market probability (34.84%). The xG difference (1.04) supports the pick. Main risk: Moderate Elo disadvantage (-43.1) could impact performance.
1Kairat Almaty vs Sutjeska2-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-08
BETSutjeska Win
8.50
13.29
-4.2pp
85
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
84d ago
8.50
→
Expected Closing
13.29
Expected CLV
-4.2pp
Why
Sutjeska has strong steam and significant closing edge (+24.35). Despite the odds drift, the model probability (36.11%) is much higher than the market probability (11.76%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo difference favors Kairat Almaty, and historical patterns are weak.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-07-07
Pass
Ranked 8/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.97). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
—
Closing
@ 13.29
2Dila vs Virtus3-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-08
BETVirtus Win
15.00
14.49
+0.2pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
84d ago
15.00
→
Expected Closing
14.49
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Virtus shows exceptional closing edge (+25.27) and strong steam. The model probability (31.94%) is significantly higher than the market probability (6.67%), suggesting sharp value. Main risk: Extremely high odds indicate low likelihood of success.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=62.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Soroksar has strong steam and a solid closing edge (+14.26). The model probability (33.31%) is higher than the market probability (19.05%), offering value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Budapest Honved.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.25
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
—
Closing
@ 5.25
4Dinamo Minsk vs SileksUEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-08
BETSileks Win
4.75
7.48
-7.7pp
70
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
84d ago
4.75
→
Expected Closing
7.48
Expected CLV
-7.7pp
Why
Sileks has strong steam and a significant closing edge (+15.54). The model probability (36.59%) is much higher than the market probability (21.05%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Dinamo Minsk.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-07-09
Pass
Ranked 26/33 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.36). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 7.48
5Glentoran vs Rīgas FSUEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-08
FADEGlentoran Win
5.75
4.47
+5.0pp
65
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
84d ago
5.75
→
Expected Closing
4.47
Expected CLV
+5.0pp
Why
Glentoran's odds drift and low steam score (82) suggest overreaction. The closing edge (+20.15) is notable, but Elo and xG differences favor Rīgas FS. Main risk: Market repricing may reflect genuine sharp interest.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
2026-07-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.75
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=49, breadth=100%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=17.3h, hist_n=250, hist_clv_rate=4%)
1Tacoma Stars vs Midlakes United2-1
✗ Incorrect
USL League Two
2026-07-08
FADEContrarianMidlakes United Win
2.30
2.29
+0.2pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
84d ago
2.30
→
Expected Closing
2.29
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed Tacoma Stars, but the model probability (30.58%) is significantly below the market probability (43.48%), indicating overvaluation. Elo and xG differences also favor Midlakes United. Main risk: Tacoma Stars' home advantage and potential sharp action.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.30
2026-07-08
Candidate pick
@ 2.30
—
Closing
@ 2.29
2RKC vs Chicago Dutch Lions4-2
✓ Correct
USL League Two
2026-07-08
FADEValuation disagreementRKC Win
3.30
1.73
+27.5pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
84d ago
3.30
→
Expected Closing
1.73
Expected CLV
+27.5pp
Why
Despite strong steam on Chicago Dutch Lions, the model probability (21.72%) is far below the market probability (30.3%), suggesting the away side is overvalued. However, RKC's superior Elo and xG metrics make fading the home side a reasonable contrarian play. Main risk: Chicago Dutch Lions' potential for late market correction.
Aarhus Fremad has seen strong steam, but the model probability (35.17%) is below the market probability (42.02%), indicating potential overreaction. Elo difference slightly favors Silkeborg, making the away side a fade candidate. Main risk: Aarhus Fremad's recent market momentum and home performance.
