The model missed the final outcome (Tacoma Stars win 2–1).
The model had projected Midlakes United at 39.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Midlakes United Tacoma Stars ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tacoma Stars | 33.3% | 40.2% | -6.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 27.3% | 21.2% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Midlakes United | 39.4% | 38.6% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Tacoma Stars's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Tacoma Stars win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Tacoma Stars. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Midlakes United; match finished Tacoma Stars
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Midlakes United by 6.9 percentage points (46.3% vs model 39.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 08, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tacoma Stars 33.3% · Draw 27.3% · Midlakes United 39.4%
- xG · Tacoma Stars 1.20 — Midlakes United 1.40
-
Jul 08, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tacoma Stars 2.20 · Draw 4.18 · Midlakes United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Tacoma Stars 40.2% · Draw 21.2% · Midlakes United 38.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 08, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tacoma Stars 2.20 · Draw 4.18 · Midlakes United 2.29
- Implied 1X2 · Tacoma Stars 40.2% · Draw 21.2% · Midlakes United 38.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 08, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tacoma Stars win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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