TPV has a significant closing edge of 20.91% and strong steam with a high steam score of 96. The model probability of 34.24% is well above the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: The odds drift suggests market skepticism, and TPV's low implied probability reflects their underdog status.
Amazonas shows strong steam with a steam score of 99 and a closing edge of 10.43%. The model probability of 31.48% exceeds the market probability of 21.05%. Main risk: Moderate edge and Amazonas' slight underdog status in a low-volatility match.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=118.3h)
2026-06-29
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-06-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-06-30
Pass
Ranked 11/44 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.51). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 4.54
3Odense vs Kolding IF2-1
✗ Incorrect
Friendlies Clubs
2026-06-29
BETKolding IF Win
4.10
3.90
+1.2pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
92d ago
4.10
→
Expected Closing
3.90
Expected CLV
+1.2pp
Why
Kolding IF has a strong model edge with a closing edge of 14.1% and a model probability of 38.49%, significantly higher than the market probability of 24.39%. Main risk: Limited steam signal and the friendly nature of the match, which can introduce unpredictability.
1Botafogo PB vs Brusque2-0
✗ Incorrect
Serie C
2026-06-29
BETBrusque Win
3.75
3.27
+3.9pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
92d ago
3.75
→
Expected Closing
3.27
Expected CLV
+3.9pp
Why
Brusque shows strong steam with a significant odds drift from 2.62 to 3.75, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability is higher than market probability, providing closing edge. Main risk: Brusque's low xG difference and Elo rating suggest limited historical advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.75
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 76/84 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.2). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 7/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-28
Pass
Ranked 6/40 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.7). Main risk: N/A.
Amazonas has sharp steam and a strong closing edge of 10.43. The model probability significantly exceeds market probability, and Elo/xG differences slightly favor Amazonas. Main risk: Amazonas' odds drift suggests market skepticism despite steam signals.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=118.3h)
2026-06-29
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-06-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-06-30
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=50, breadth=91%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=22.3h, hist_n=246, hist_clv_rate=4%)
TPV exhibits sharp steam with a massive closing edge of 20.91. The model probability is much higher than market probability, and Elo/xG differences are neutral. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest the market views TPV as a long shot.
Panevėžys shows strong steam and a closing edge of 11.69. The model probability is significantly higher than market probability, and xG difference supports the pick. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors Suduva Marijampole.
Slovan Bratislava has market steam and a closing edge of 6.6. The model probability exceeds market probability, and xG difference is slightly favorable. Main risk: Elo difference heavily favors FK Crvena Zvezda.
The draw option in IA Akranes vs Fram Reykjavik shows a positive historical CLV rate of 52%, indicating a favorable pattern replay. The closing edge is within the acceptable range at 5.5pp, and the market is trailing the model's probability. Main risk: Low volatility could lead to a decisive result, reducing the likelihood of a draw.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size80
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.3%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.14
2026-06-29
Candidate pick
@ 4.14
—
Closing
@ 4.24
2Colombia vs GhanaWorld Cup
2026-06-29
FADEDraw
3.80
4.40
-3.6pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
92d ago
3.80
→
Expected Closing
4.40
Expected CLV
-3.6pp
Why
The draw in Colombia vs Ghana has a negative closing edge of -8.12pp, suggesting overreaction by the market. Historical CLV is neutral, and the sharp-led market state indicates potential inefficiency. Main risk: Market repricing could still align with sharp bettors' insights, making the fade risky.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size80
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.3%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.80
2026-06-29
Candidate pick
@ 3.80
2026-06-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.80
2026-06-30
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=96.3h, hist_n=618, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=99, breadth=100%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=10.0h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=99, breadth=100%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=9.6h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=9.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=0.2h, hist_n=596, hist_clv_rate=2%)
1Cuiaba vs America MineiroSerie B
2026-06-29
FADEValuation disagreementCuiaba Win
4.72
1.86
+32.6pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
92d ago
4.72
→
Expected Closing
1.86
Expected CLV
+32.6pp
Why
America Mineiro's odds have lengthened significantly, showing strong steam on Cuiaba. However, the model probability for America Mineiro (10.39%) is much lower than the market's implied probability (21.19%), and the closing edge is negative (-10.8). This indicates a potential overreaction to the steam on Cuiaba. Main risk: The minimal Elo and xG differences suggest this could still be a close match.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.72
2026-06-29
Candidate pick
@ 4.72
2026-06-29
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.72
2026-06-30
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/7, pre-LLM score 87.8). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 1.86
2Germany vs Paraguay1-1
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-29
FADEValuation disagreementGermany Win
10.00
1.34
+64.6pp
60
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
92d ago
10.00
→
Expected Closing
1.34
Expected CLV
+64.6pp
Why
Austria's odds have shortened significantly, indicating market steam on the away side. However, the model probability (5.15%) is lower than the market's implied probability (7.69%), and the closing edge is negative (-2.54). The market may have overreacted to Austria's steam. Main risk: Spain's significant xG and Elo advantages make them heavy favorites.
