Uzbekistan has a strong model probability of 38.97% compared to the market's 10.0%, resulting in a significant closing edge of 28.97 percentage points. The steam score of 97 and sharp repricing signal indicate strong market support. Main risk: Colombia's higher ELO rating and potential underestimation of their quality.
2026-06-18
Replaced with updated pick
@ 10.00(Candidate pick 8.50)
—
Closing
@ 9.60
2Ecuador vs CuraçaoWorld Cup
2026-06-18
FADEDraw
11.00
8.00
+3.4pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
103d ago
11.00
→
Expected Closing
8.00
Expected CLV
+3.4pp
Why
The draw for Ecuador vs Curaçao has seen extreme odds movement (from 6.0 to 11.0) with a steam score of 99, suggesting market overreaction. Despite a high model probability of 30.57%, the sharp repricing and high volatility make this a contrarian fade. Main risk: The model's strong value signal could still materialize.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
2026-06-14
Pass
Ranked 74/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.92). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
Pass
Ranked 18/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-16
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/60, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-17
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 1/86, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
Candidate pick
@ 11.00
2026-06-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 11.00
2026-06-19
Pass
Ranked 4/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 6/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
Strong money flow with favorable price action. Main risk: line reverses before kickoff.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-06-11
Pass
Uzbekistan's odds have drifted higher, but the steam score and breadth percentage are moderate compared to the other candidate. Additionally, there is no model probability or closing edge data to support a bet. Main risk: Lack of supporting data and limited historical pattern make this fixture less compelling.
2026-06-12
Pass
Uzbekistan's steam indicators are moderate, but the significant elo disadvantage and low market probability reduce confidence in backing the home side. Main risk: Uzbekistan's weak comparative metrics against Colombia.
2026-06-13
Pass
Ranked 50/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.11). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
Pass
Ranked 42/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.11). Main risk: N/A.
1Häcken W vs Rosengård W2-0
✓ Correct
Damallsvenskan
2026-06-18
FADEValuation disagreementHäcken W Win
9.00
1.22
+70.9pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
103d ago
9.00
→
Expected Closing
1.22
Expected CLV
+70.9pp
Why
Rosengård W has seen a significant odds drop from 12.0 to 9.0, driven by sharp-led activity. However, the model probability (5.75%) is well below the market probability (11.11%), suggesting the move is overdone. The xG difference of 2.38 heavily favors Rosengård W, but the sharp repricing appears exaggerated. Main risk: Häcken W's home advantage could still pose a challenge despite market movement.
The market has sharply repriced against Nõmme United II, with their odds drifting from 2.0 to 2.4. However, the model probability (36.11%) is below the market probability (41.67%), indicating no edge on the home side. The steam score of 94 and breadth_pct of 85.7 suggest strong public backing, likely overheating the market. Main risk: Tallinna Kalev's away performance could still outperform expectations.
