1Urozhay vs Tyumen1-0
✗ Incorrect
Second League A - Division A Silver
2026-06-06
FADETyumen Win
6.57
1.37
+57.8pp
75
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
115d ago
6.57
→
Expected Closing
1.37
Expected CLV
+57.8pp
Why
The sharp repricing and strong steam signal suggest significant market movement against Tyumen. Despite Urozhay's lower Elo rating, the model probability indicates value on the home side. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical data make this a contrarian fade.
1Hodonín vs Vítkovice1-2
✓ Correct
3. liga - MSFL
2026-06-06
BETVítkovice Win
6.82
6.85
-0.1pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
115d ago
6.82
→
Expected Closing
6.85
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Vítkovice shows strong steam movement with a significant closing edge of 15.92 percentage points and a model probability of 30.58%, well above the market probability of 14.66%. The low volatility and sharp repricing indicate a favorable market environment. Main risk: Negative Elo difference of -132.5 suggests potential weakness in team quality.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.82
2026-06-06
Candidate pick
@ 6.82
2026-06-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30. (Current: steam=86, breadth=83%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=35.5h)
South Africa has a massive model edge with a probability of 34.24% compared to the market's 11.11%, and the closing edge is an impressive 23.13 percentage points. The low volatility and long time to kickoff reduce immediate market noise. Main risk: Elo difference of -15.6 indicates a slight disadvantage in team strength.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-06-06
Withdrawn before validation
@ 9.00
2026-06-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30. (Current: steam=25, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=135.5h)
2026-06-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30; requires low volatility. (Current: steam=28, breadth=31%, signal=volatile_market, kickoff_in=90.0h)
2026-06-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30. (Current: steam=26, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=66.0h)
2026-06-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30. (Current: steam=10, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=42.0h)
2026-06-11
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥30. (Current: steam=36, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=18.0h)
1Urozhay vs Tyumen1-0
✓ Correct
Second League A - Division A Silver
2026-06-06
BETUrozhay Win
6.57
7.20
-1.3pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
115d ago
6.57
→
Expected Closing
7.20
Expected CLV
-1.3pp
Why
Urozhay has seen a massive steam move with a 125% odds shift and strong market repricing. The closing edge is significant at +22.68 percentage points, and the model probability (37.9%) far exceeds the market probability (15.22%). Despite the negative Elo difference, the xG differential is slightly positive, and the high volatility adds upside potential. Main risk: Limited historical data and high odds volatility could indicate an overreaction.
Leobendorf has seen a moderate steam move, but the closing edge is negative (-7.9 percentage points), and the model probability (37.55%) is slightly lower than the market probability (45.45%). While the Elo and xG differentials are positive, the odds tightening may reflect overconfidence. Main risk: The market may be correctly pricing Leobendorf's edge, making this fade risky.
1Urozhay vs Tyumen1-0
✓ Correct
Second League A - Division A Silver
2026-06-06
BETContrarianUrozhay Win
6.57
7.20
-1.3pp
72
🔥
▾
Entry
115d ago
6.57
→
Expected Closing
7.20
Expected CLV
-1.3pp
Why
Urozhay's odds have drifted significantly, creating a strong positive edge based on the model's probability of 37.9% compared to the market's 15.22%. Despite the negative Elo difference, the xG differential is slightly positive, and the sharp repricing suggests overreaction. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical pattern data.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.57
2026-06-06
Candidate pick
@ 6.57
—
Closing
@ 7.20
2Hodonín vs Vítkovice1-2
✓ Correct
3. liga - MSFL
2026-06-06
BETValuation disagreementVítkovice Win
6.82
6.85
-0.1pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
115d ago
6.82
→
Expected Closing
6.85
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Vítkovice's odds still offer value with a model probability of 30.58% against a market probability of 14.66%. The strong steam signal and positive closing edge support this position. Main risk: Significant negative Elo difference, which could indicate a quality gap.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.82
2026-06-06
Candidate pick
@ 6.82
2026-06-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=86, breadth=83%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=35.5h)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
115d ago
2.20
→
Expected Closing
2.40
Expected CLV
-3.8pp
Why
Leobendorf's odds have shortened despite a negative closing edge and a model probability of 37.55%, which is lower than the market's 45.45%. This suggests market overconfidence in the home side. Main risk: Low volatility and positive Elo difference for Leobendorf.
