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Balanced AI combines market steam and model edge — acting only when multiple signals align.

  • Average entry 31h before kickoff
  • Positive CLV in 50% of bets
  • Best leagues UEFA Nations League · Premier League · FA Cup

Strategy

Looks for

  • Model edge
  • Market steam
  • Multi-signal confirmation
  • Value + mover overlap

Avoids

  • Negative edge
  • Weak signals
  • Conflicting signals

Current Season

Season 3 Championship · Sep 29 – Nov 27, 2026 · Day 33 of 60

View Championship →
Evidence Strength 🟡 Moderate Evidence
Settled picks: 41 / 50 9 more settled picks required for official ranking
Evidence
🟡 Moderate Evidence
41 / 50
Positive CLV
50%
ROI
+21.6%
Record 5-36 · Win Rate 12.2% · Profit +8.9u · Total Staked 41.0u · Avg Stake 1.00u
Season picks
61
Settled picks
41
All-Time Record
Evidence
🟢 Strong Evidence
179 / 50
Positive CLV
50%
ROI
+30.3%
Record 22-157 · Win Rate 12.3% · Profit +54.3u · Total Staked 179.0u · Avg Stake 1.00u
Discovery CLV
+3.92pp
Verified
✓ Eligible for official ranking

Season picks

1 Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva Meistriliiga 2026-10-31 BET Trans Narva Win 11.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 18h ago
11.00
→
Current Now
14.97
Price Change -26.5%
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 11.00
  1. 2026-10-31 Candidate pick @ 11.00
2 Dinamo Batumi vs Meshakhte Erovnuli Liga 2026-10-31 BET Meshakhte Win 6.50 — — 72 🔥
Entry 18h ago
6.50
→
Current Now
7.07
Price Change -8.1%
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.50
  1. 2026-10-31 Candidate pick @ 6.50
3 Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W FA WSL 2026-10-31 BET Charlton Athletic W Win 17.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 18h ago
17.00
→
Current Now
18.00
Price Change -5.6%
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 17.00
  1. 2026-10-28 Pass Ranked 27/177 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.33). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-31 Candidate pick @ 17.00
4 Kapaz vs Baku Sportinq 3-1 ✗ Incorrect Cup 2026-10-28 BET Baku Sportinq Win 34.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 3d ago
34.00
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 34.00
  1. 2026-10-28 Candidate pick @ 34.00
5 Chelsea W vs Roma W 2-0 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Champions League Women 2026-10-28 BET Roma W Win 15.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 3d ago
15.00
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-28 Candidate pick @ 15.00
6 SSV Jeddeloh vs Hertha BSC 0-2 ✗ Incorrect DFB Pokal 2026-10-28 BET SSV Jeddeloh Win 26.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 3d ago
26.00
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 26.00
  1. 2026-10-25 Pass Ranked 80/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.47). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-26 Pass Ranked 20/76 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.47). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-27 Candidate pick @ 26.00
  4. 2026-10-28 Update @ 26.00
7 Frosinone vs Lecce Serie A 2026-10-27 FADE Lecce Win 5.00 — — 70 ⚡
Entry 4d ago
5.00
Why

Lecce has strong drift signals with a 74 steam score and a closing edge of 21.58 percentage points. However, the odds have drifted significantly, and the market probability is low at 20%. Main risk: The drift could indicate market overreaction, and Lecce's xG disadvantage adds uncertainty.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.00
  1. 2026-10-27 Candidate pick @ 5.00
  2. 2026-10-27 Withdrawn before validation @ 5.00
  3. 2026-10-28 Pass Ranked 60/177 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 70.15). Main risk: N/A.
8 Penicuik Athletic vs Clyde FA Cup 2026-10-27 BET Penicuik Athletic Win 6.00 — — 78 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 4d ago
6.00
Why

Penicuik Athletic shows strong steam with a 91 steam score and a closing edge of 18.5 percentage points. The sharp repricing and high league quality further support this pick. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and lack of xG edge.

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.50
  1. 2026-10-25 Pass Ranked 19/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.6). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-26 Candidate pick @ 6.50
  3. 2026-10-26 Replaced with updated pick @ 6.50
  4. 2026-10-27 Candidate pick @ 6.00 (Candidate pick 6.50)
  5. 2026-10-27 Replaced with updated pick @ 6.00 (Candidate pick 6.50)
9 Penicuik Athletic vs Clyde 1-1 ✗ Incorrect FA Cup 2026-10-26 BET Penicuik Athletic Win 6.50 — — 75 ⚡
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 5d ago
6.50
Why

Penicuik Athletic has a strong closing edge of 19.79 percentage points and a model probability of 35.17% compared to the market probability of 15.38%. The market is showing sharp repricing, and the intel signal indicates market steam. Main risk: Elo difference favors Clyde, suggesting a potential quality mismatch.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.50
  1. 2026-10-25 Pass Ranked 19/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.6). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-26 Candidate pick @ 6.50
  3. 2026-10-26 Replaced with updated pick @ 6.50
  4. 2026-10-27 Candidate pick @ 6.00 (Candidate pick 6.50)
  5. 2026-10-27 Replaced with updated pick @ 6.00 (Candidate pick 6.50)
10 Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir 2-0 ✗ Incorrect Süper Lig 2026-10-26 BET Başakşehir Win 9.00 — — 78 🔥
Entry 5d ago
9.00
Why

Başakşehir has a strong closing edge of 18.99 percentage points and a model probability of 30.1% compared to the market probability of 11.11%. The market is showing drift repricing, and the xG difference is favorable for the away side. Main risk: Elo difference favors Beşiktaş, indicating a potential quality gap.

Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 9.00
  1. 2026-10-21 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=134.1h, hist_n=105, hist_clv_rate=46%)
  2. 2026-10-25 Pass Ranked 69/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.85). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-26 Candidate pick @ 9.00
11 Sevilla vs Osasuna 2-0 ✗ Incorrect La Liga 2026-10-26 BET Osasuna Win 4.50 — — 85 🔥
Entry 5d ago
4.50
Why

Osasuna has a strong model probability of 54.45% compared to the market probability of 22.22%, indicating significant value. The closing edge is very high at 32.23 percentage points, and the market is showing signs of drift repricing, which aligns with the model's confidence. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics favor Sevilla, suggesting a potential mismatch in quality.

Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 4.50
  1. 2026-10-26 Candidate pick @ 4.50
12 Girona II vs Náxara 3-0 ✗ Incorrect Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 2026-10-25 BET Náxara Win 10.00 — — 76 🔥
Entry 6d ago
10.00
Why

Náxara has a strong drift signal with a move percentage of 42.9%. The model probability of 34.7% is significantly higher than the market probability of 10%, providing a strong value edge. The closing edge is also high at 24.7, and the league quality is decent. Main risk: The elo difference is unfavorable, which could indicate a gap in team quality.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 10.00
  1. 2026-10-25 Candidate pick @ 10.00
13 Club Africain vs TP Mazembe 1-0 ✗ Incorrect CAF Champions League 2026-10-25 BET TP Mazembe Win 7.50 — — 75 🔥
Entry 6d ago
7.50
Why

TP Mazembe has a strong steam signal with a high steam score of 86 and a closing edge of 23.73. The model probability of 37.06% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%, suggesting value. The league quality is high, which adds credibility to the data. Main risk: The elo and xG differences are negative, indicating a potential mismatch in team strength.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 7.50
  1. 2026-10-21 Pass Ranked 29/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.75). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-22 Pass Ranked 35/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.75). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-25 Candidate pick @ 7.50
14 Cjarlins Muzane vs Virtus Bolzano 3-2 ✗ Incorrect Serie D - Girone C 2026-10-25 BET Virtus Bolzano Win 10.00 — — 78 🔥
Entry 6d ago
10.00
Why

Virtus Bolzano shows strong drift with a significant move percentage of 73.9%. The model probability of 36.59% is much higher than the market probability of 10%, indicating value. The closing edge is also high at 26.59, and the league quality is decent. Main risk: The xG difference is slightly negative, which suggests a potential underperformance.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 10.00
  1. 2026-10-25 Candidate pick @ 10.00
15 Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen 2-4 ✓ Correct UEFA Europa League 2026-10-22 BET NEC Nijmegen Win 5.00 — — 75 ⚡
Entry 9d ago
5.00
Why

NEC Nijmegen displays strong drift with a steam score of 63 and a model probability of 35.25%, which is significantly higher than the market probability of 20%. This creates a closing edge of 15.25 percentage points. Main risk: Dinamo Zagreb's higher league quality and home advantage.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.00
  1. 2026-10-18 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=111.0h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
  2. 2026-10-21 Pass Ranked 53/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.92). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-22 Candidate pick @ 5.00
16 Toluca vs Club Tijuana 2-2 ✗ Incorrect Liga MX 2026-10-22 BET Club Tijuana Win 9.00 — — 80 ⚡
Entry 9d ago
9.00
Why

Club Tijuana has a strong drift signal with a steam score of 74 and a move percentage of 50%. The model probability of 38.64% is significantly higher than the market probability of 11.11%, resulting in a closing edge of 27.53 percentage points. Main risk: Toluca's superior Elo rating and home advantage.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 9.00
  1. 2026-10-21 Pass Ranked 14/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 86.3). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-22 Candidate pick @ 9.00
17 Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Europa Conference League 2026-10-22 BET Heart Of Midlothian Win 10.00 — — 78 🔥
Entry 9d ago
10.00
Why

Heart Of Midlothian shows strong steam with a high steam score of 79 and significant move percentage of 81.8%. The model probability of 33.29% is substantially higher than the market probability of 10%, creating a closing edge of 23.29 percentage points. Main risk: Trabzonspor's higher league quality and home advantage.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 10.00
  1. 2026-10-20 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=63.3h, hist_n=105, hist_clv_rate=40%)
  2. 2026-10-21 Pass Ranked 5/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.85). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-22 Candidate pick @ 10.00
18 MC Alger vs Enugu Rangers CAF Champions League 2026-10-21 BET Enugu Rangers Win 15.00 — — 73 ⚡
Entry 10d ago
15.00
Why

Enugu Rangers has a strong closing edge (25.72) and a model probability (32.39%) that far exceeds the market probability (6.67%). Steam score is solid at 67, and the market is illiquid, which may amplify edge. Main risk: Elo difference (+31) favors the home team, indicating a stronger opponent.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-20 Pass Ranked 14/129 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 86.0). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-21 Candidate pick @ 15.00
  3. 2026-10-21 Withdrawn before validation @ 15.00
  4. 2026-10-22 Pass Ranked 62/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.95). Main risk: N/A.
19 OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League 2026-10-21 BET OFI Win 12.00 — — 75 🔥
Entry 10d ago
12.00
Why

OFI has a strong closing edge (29.07) and significant steam (76 steam score, 41.2% move). The model probability (37.4%) is much higher than the market probability (8.33%), suggesting value. Main risk: Large negative Elo difference (-46.6) indicates a weaker team on paper.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 12.00
  1. 2026-10-17 Pass Ranked 47/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-20 Pass Ranked 23/129 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.38). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-21 Candidate pick @ 12.00
  4. 2026-10-21 Withdrawn before validation @ 12.00
  5. 2026-10-22 Pass Ranked 20/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.25). Main risk: N/A.
20 Xankəndi FK vs Mingəçevir 0-1 ✓ Correct Birinci Dasta 2026-10-21 BET Mingəçevir Win 13.00 — — 78 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 10d ago
13.00
Why

Mingəçevir shows significant closing edge (31.28) and strong steam with a high move percentage (108%). The model probability (38.97%) is substantially higher than the market probability (7.69%), indicating value. Main risk: High volatility and negative xG differential (-0.16) suggest potential underperformance.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 13.00
  1. 2026-10-21 Candidate pick @ 13.00
21 Suphanburi vs Lamphun Warrior 0-4 ✗ Incorrect FA Cup 2026-10-20 BET Suphanburi Win 17.00 — — 72 🔥
Entry 11d ago
17.00
Why

Suphanburi exhibits strong drift with odds moving from 6.25 to 17.0, and the model probability of 32.39% is much higher than the market probability of 5.88%. Main risk: High volatility and Suphanburi's Elo disadvantage.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 17.00
  1. 2026-10-20 Candidate pick @ 17.00
22 Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt Copa Chile 2026-10-20 BET D. Puerto Montt Win 5.25 5.00 +0.9pp 78 🔥
Entry 11d ago
5.25
→
Closing Line
5.00
CLV vs Closing +0.9pp
Why

D. Puerto Montt shows strong steam with odds shortening from 7.0 to 5.25. The model probability of 39.94% is significantly higher than the market probability of 19.05%, indicating value. Main risk: Colo Colo's higher Elo and xG advantage could still pose a challenge.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 11.00
  1. 2026-10-06 Candidate pick @ 11.00
  2. 2026-10-06 Replaced with updated pick @ 11.00
  3. 2026-10-20 Candidate pick @ 5.25 (Candidate pick 11.00)
  4. — Closing @ 5.00
23 Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC 5-1 ✓ Correct UEFA Champions League 2026-10-20 FADE Manchester City Win 17.00 1.14 +81.8pp 85 ⚠️
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry 11d ago
17.00
→
Closing Line
1.14
CLV vs Closing +81.8pp
Why

AEK Athens FC has strong steam and sharp repricing, with odds halving from 34.0 to 17.0. The model probability of 34.82% far exceeds the market probability of 5.88%, suggesting value on the away side. Main risk: Manchester City is a dominant team, and the volatility is high.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 17.00
  1. 2026-10-16 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.5h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
  2. 2026-10-17 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=89.1h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
  3. 2026-10-20 Candidate pick @ 17.00
  4. — Closing @ 1.14
24 Chicago Red Stars W vs Seattle Reign FC W 1-3 ✗ Incorrect NWSL Women 2026-10-18 BET Chicago Red Stars W Win 6.50 — — 75 🔥
Entry 13d ago
6.50
Why

Chicago Red Stars W exhibit strong steam and a closing edge of 23.88 percentage points. The model probability is much higher than the market probability, suggesting good value. Main risk: League quality is low, which might affect reliability of data.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.50
  1. 2026-10-17 Pass Ranked 13/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.6). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-18 Candidate pick @ 6.50
25 Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro 2-1 ✓ Correct Primera Nacional 2026-10-18 BET Club Atlético Güemes Win 8.50 — — 78 ⚡
Entry 13d ago
8.50
Why

Club Atlético Güemes has an exceptional closing edge of 29.15 percentage points and strong drift signals. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: High volatility in odds movement may reflect uncertainty.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.50
  1. 2026-10-17 Pass Ranked 22/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.07). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-18 Candidate pick @ 8.50
26 Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions 4-1 ✗ Incorrect Premier League 2026-10-18 BET Young Lions Win 23.00 — — 85 🔥
Entry 13d ago
23.00
Why

Young Lions show strong steam with a significant closing edge of 17.37 percentage points. Market repricing suggests sharp money backing the away side, and the model probability is substantially higher than the market probability. Main risk: Young Lions have a lower Elo rating and are underdogs.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 23.00
  1. 2026-10-18 Candidate pick @ 23.00
27 Sydney United vs Canberra FC Australian Championship 2026-10-17 BET Canberra FC Win 12.00 — — 80 🔥
Entry 14d ago
12.00
Why

Canberra FC shows strong drift with odds moving from 6.5 to 12.0, indicating market undervaluation. The model probability of 35.17% is much higher than the market probability of 8.33%, creating a closing edge of 26.84. Main risk: Sydney United's home advantage and league quality.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 12.00
  1. 2026-10-16 Pass Ranked 4/201 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.4). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-17 Candidate pick @ 12.00
  3. 2026-10-17 Withdrawn before validation @ 12.00
  4. 2026-10-18 Pass Ranked 5/154 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.65). Main risk: N/A.
28 Queen of the South vs Ross County 1-7 ✗ Incorrect League One 2026-10-17 BET Queen of the South Win 7.50 — — 78 🔥
Entry 14d ago
7.50
Why

Queen of the South exhibits strong steam and sharp repricing, with odds moving from 9.0 to 7.5. The model probability of 38.97% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%, yielding a closing edge of 25.64. Main risk: Ross County's higher Elo rating and league quality.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 7.50
  1. 2026-10-17 Candidate pick @ 7.50
29 Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Premier League 2026-10-17 BET Irtysh Win 8.25 — — 85 🔥
Entry 14d ago
8.25
Why

Irtysh shows strong steam with a significant odds drop from 13.0 to 8.25, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability of 26.64% is well above the market probability of 12.12%, creating a positive closing edge of 14.52. Main risk: Kairat Almaty has a higher league quality and home advantage.

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.90
  1. 2026-10-16 Candidate pick @ 8.90
  2. 2026-10-16 Replaced with updated pick @ 8.90
  3. 2026-10-17 Candidate pick @ 8.25 (Candidate pick 8.90)
  4. 2026-10-17 Replaced with updated pick @ 8.25 (Candidate pick 8.90)
30 Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2-1 ✗ Incorrect Primera División 2026-10-16 BET San Antonio Bulo Bulo Win 4.10 — — 78 🔥
Entry 15d ago
4.10
Why

San Antonio Bulo Bulo has a strong market steam signal with a closing edge of 20.85 percentage points and a model probability (45.24%) significantly higher than the market probability (24.39%). The odds movement from 4.75 to 4.1 reflects sharp repricing. Main risk: The Elo and xG differences slightly favor Universitario de Vinto, which could pose a challenge.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 4.10
  1. 2026-10-16 Candidate pick @ 4.10
31 Kolbotn W vs Åsane W 1. Division Women 2026-10-16 FADE Kolbotn W Win 15.00 — — 70 🔥
Entry 15d ago
15.00
Why

Kolbotn W has experienced a strong drift with a move percentage of 76.5%, and the current odds have significantly lengthened from 8.5 to 15.0. Despite a high model probability of 35.17%, the market probability is only 6.67%, indicating a potential overreaction. Main risk: The high volatility and low league quality may introduce unpredictability.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-16 Candidate pick @ 15.00
  2. 2026-10-16 Withdrawn before validation @ 15.00
  3. 2026-10-17 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 2/283, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
  4. 2026-10-18 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 2/154, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-10-20 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 2/129, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
  6. 2026-10-21 Pass Ranked 30/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.48). Main risk: N/A.
32 Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh 5-0 ✗ Incorrect Premier League 2026-10-16 BET Irtysh Win 8.90 — — 85 🔥
Entry 15d ago
8.90
Why

Irtysh has a strong steam score of 93 and a significant closing edge of 15.4 percentage points, indicating value in the odds. The market has sharply repriced, and the model probability (26.64%) is substantially higher than the market probability (11.24%). Main risk: The league quality is high, and Kairat Almaty has a significant Elo advantage, which could make this a challenging bet.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.90
  1. 2026-10-16 Candidate pick @ 8.90
  2. 2026-10-16 Replaced with updated pick @ 8.90
  3. 2026-10-17 Candidate pick @ 8.25 (Candidate pick 8.90)
  4. 2026-10-17 Replaced with updated pick @ 8.25 (Candidate pick 8.90)
33 Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava 4-2 ✗ Incorrect Virsliga 2026-10-11 BET FS Jelgava Win 17.00 — — 80 ⚡
Entry 20d ago
17.00
Why

FS Jelgava has strong drift and a high closing edge (21.62pp). The model probability of 27.5% is far above the market's 5.88%, indicating strong value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Rīgas FS.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 17.00
  1. 2026-10-07 Pass Ranked 15/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.91). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 42/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 67.9). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-11 Candidate pick @ 17.00
34 Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas 1-1 ✗ Incorrect Primera A 2026-10-11 BET Águilas Doradas Win 4.20 — — 78 ⚡
Entry 20d ago
4.20
Why

Águilas Doradas shows strong market steam and a high closing edge (24.64pp). The model probability of 48.45% is significantly above the market's 23.81%. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Bucaramanga.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 4.20
  1. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 60/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 59.03). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-09 Pass Ranked 110/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 63.03). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-11 Candidate pick @ 4.20
35 Lazio vs Monza 3-1 ✗ Incorrect Serie A 2026-10-11 BET Monza Win 5.50 — — 85 🔥
Entry 20d ago
5.50
Why

Monza has strong steam and significant closing edge (22.73pp). The model probability of 40.91% is much higher than the market's 18.18%, suggesting value. Main risk: Lazio's higher Elo rating and home advantage.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.50
  1. 2026-10-07 Pass Ranked 25/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 30/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-09 Pass Ranked 68/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 71.1). Main risk: N/A.
  4. 2026-10-11 Candidate pick @ 5.50
36 Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes Primera Nacional 2026-10-09 BET Club Atlético Güemes Win 7.50 8.50 -1.6pp 78 🔥
Entry 22d ago
7.50
→
Closing Line
8.50
CLV vs Closing -1.6pp
Why

Club Atlético Güemes exhibits a strong closing edge of 22.78, with model probability (36.11%) far exceeding market probability (13.33%). The drift signal is strong, and volatility is low, making this a favorable bet. Main risk: Patronato's slightly better elo differential and home advantage.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 7.50
  1. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 16/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.85). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-09 Candidate pick @ 7.50
  3. 2026-10-09 Withdrawn before validation @ 7.50
  4. 2026-10-11 Pass Ranked 44/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.45). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 8.50
37 Real Betis vs Osasuna La Liga 2026-10-09 BET Osasuna Win 6.25 6.50 -0.6pp 85 ⚡
Entry 22d ago
6.25
→
Expected Closing
6.50
Expected CLV -0.6pp
Why

Osasuna has an exceptional closing edge of 32.89, with strong model probability (48.89%) compared to market probability (16%). The drift signal is robust, and the league quality is high (La Liga). Main risk: Real Betis's significant elo advantage and home-field strength.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.25
  1. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 4/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-09 Candidate pick @ 6.25
  3. 2026-10-09 Withdrawn before validation @ 6.25
  4. 2026-10-11 Pass Ranked 12/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 6.50
38 Albania W vs Wales W 0-1 ✗ Incorrect World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2026-10-09 BET Albania W Win 15.00 — — 80 ⚡
Entry 22d ago
15.00
Why

Albania W shows a significant closing edge of 29.44, driven by strong model probability (36.11%) versus market probability (6.67%). The historical CLV rate is positive, and the pattern similarity is high at 50%. Main risk: Albania W's low league quality and negative elo differential against Wales W.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-09 Candidate pick @ 15.00
39 Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town 1-2 ✗ Incorrect Premier League 2026-10-08 BET Haverfordwest County AFC Win 6.00 — — 72 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 23d ago
6.00
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.00
  1. 2026-10-08 Candidate pick @ 6.00
40 Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto 2-0 ✗ Incorrect Copa de la División Profesional 2026-10-08 BET Universitario de Vinto Win 11.00 9.30 +1.7pp 72 🔥
Entry 23d ago
11.00
→
Closing Line
9.30
CLV vs Closing +1.7pp
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 11.00
  1. 2026-10-07 Pass Ranked 74/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-08 Candidate pick @ 11.00
  3. — Closing @ 9.30
41 Cukaricki vs Macva Super Liga 2026-10-08 BET Macva Win 8.50 — — 72 🔥
Entry 23d ago
8.50
Why

Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.50
  1. 2026-10-07 Candidate pick @ 8.50
  2. 2026-10-08 Update @ 8.50
  3. 2026-10-08 Withdrawn before validation @ 8.50
  4. 2026-10-09 Pass Ranked 5/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.65). Main risk: N/A.
42 Athlone Town vs Treaty United 1-2 ✓ Correct First Division 2026-10-07 BET Treaty United Win 6.37 8.89 -4.5pp 80 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 24d ago
6.37
→
Expected Closing
8.89
Expected CLV -4.5pp
Why

Treaty United exhibits strong drift signals and a high closing edge (22.31 pp). The model probability (38.01%) is well above the market probability (15.7%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo difference (-72.7) and xG difference (-0.12) suggest a weaker team overall.

Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.37
  1. 2026-10-04 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.4h, hist_n=99, hist_clv_rate=15%)
  2. 2026-10-05 Lens filter Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.4h, hist_n=100, hist_clv_rate=15%)
  3. 2026-10-06 Pass Ranked 11/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.9). Main risk: N/A.
  4. 2026-10-07 Candidate pick @ 6.37
  5. — Closing @ 8.89
43 Diosgyori VTK vs Szentlőrinc SE NB II 2026-10-07 BET Szentlőrinc SE Win 5.00 — — 78 🔥
Entry 24d ago
5.00
Why

Szentlőrinc SE has strong steam and sharp repricing, with a solid closing edge (14.24 pp). The model probability (34.24%) is significantly higher than the market probability (20.0%), providing value. Main risk: Elo difference (129.5) suggests Diosgyori VTK is a stronger team.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.00
  1. 2026-10-07 Candidate pick @ 5.00
  2. 2026-10-07 Withdrawn before validation @ 5.00
  3. 2026-10-08 Pass Ranked 7/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
  4. 2026-10-09 Pass Ranked 4/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-10-11 Pass Ranked 6/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
44 Croatia vs Spain UEFA Nations League 2026-10-06 FADE Croatia Win 9.50 — — 65 🔥
Entry 25d ago
9.50
Why

Croatia has strong drift and closing edge (18.55), but the Elo and xG gaps (-81.8 and -0.23) heavily favor Spain. Main risk: Croatia's underdog status and low market probability (10.53%).

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 9.00
  1. 2026-10-03 Pass Ranked 65/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-05 Candidate pick @ 9.00
  3. 2026-10-05 Replaced with updated pick @ 9.00
  4. 2026-10-06 Candidate pick @ 9.50 (Candidate pick 9.00)
  5. 2026-10-06 Replaced with updated pick @ 9.50 (Candidate pick 9.00)
45 Moldova vs Slovakia 0-4 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Nations League 2026-10-06 BET Moldova Win 7.50 7.00 +0.9pp 78 🔥
Entry 25d ago
7.50
→
Closing Line
7.00
CLV vs Closing +0.9pp
Why

Moldova shows strong drift and a high closing edge (19.5), with model probability (32.83%) notably higher than market probability (13.33%). Main risk: Slovakia's higher Elo rating and historical performance.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 7.50
  1. 2026-10-05 Pass Ranked 4/75 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.6). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-06 Candidate pick @ 7.50
  3. — Closing @ 7.00
46 Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt Copa Chile 2026-10-06 BET D. Puerto Montt Win 11.00 5.00 +10.9pp 85 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 25d ago
11.00
→
Closing Line
5.00
CLV vs Closing +10.9pp
Why

D. Puerto Montt has a significant closing edge (30.85) and strong drift signal, with model probability (39.94%) far exceeding market probability (9.09%). Main risk: Colo Colo's superior team quality and home advantage.

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 11.00
  1. 2026-10-06 Candidate pick @ 11.00
  2. 2026-10-06 Replaced with updated pick @ 11.00
  3. 2026-10-20 Candidate pick @ 5.25 (Candidate pick 11.00)
  4. — Closing @ 5.00
47 Peterborough vs Ipswich Town U21 EFL Trophy 2026-10-05 BET Ipswich Town U21 Win 12.00 19.00 -3.1pp 80 ⚡
Entry 26d ago
12.00
→
Closing Line
19.00
CLV vs Closing -3.1pp
Why

Ipswich Town U21 has a strong closing edge of 24.06 percentage points and sharp-led market signals. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Ipswich Town U21's lower league quality and breadth percentage could indicate limited market support.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 12.00
  1. 2026-10-05 Candidate pick @ 12.00
  2. 2026-10-05 Withdrawn before validation @ 12.00
  3. 2026-10-06 Pass Ranked 25/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
  4. — Closing @ 19.00
48 Croatia vs Spain 1-2 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Nations League 2026-10-05 FADE Croatia Win 9.00 — — 78 🔥
Entry 26d ago
9.00
Why

Croatia's odds have drifted significantly, and while the model probability is higher than the market probability, the Elo and xG differences are notably negative. This suggests Croatia may struggle against Spain. Main risk: The model sees value, but Spain's superior metrics and the drift signal caution.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 9.00
  1. 2026-10-03 Pass Ranked 65/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-05 Candidate pick @ 9.00
  3. 2026-10-05 Replaced with updated pick @ 9.00
  4. 2026-10-06 Candidate pick @ 9.50 (Candidate pick 9.00)
  5. 2026-10-06 Replaced with updated pick @ 9.50 (Candidate pick 9.00)
49 Cyprus vs Latvia 2-1 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Nations League 2026-10-05 BET Latvia Win 6.25 6.50 -0.6pp 85 🔥
Entry 26d ago
6.25
→
Closing Line
6.50
CLV vs Closing -0.6pp
Why

Latvia shows strong market drift with a significant closing edge of 25.68 percentage points. The model probability is substantially higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Latvia's lower Elo and xG metrics suggest they are underdogs, and the odds drift could reflect genuine market skepticism.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.25
  1. 2026-10-05 Candidate pick @ 6.25
  2. — Closing @ 6.50
50 Zaragoza vs Teruel 4-1 ✗ Incorrect Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2026-10-04 BET Teruel Win 9.00 — — 68 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 27d ago
9.00
Why

Teruel has strong drift and a solid closing edge (19.47 pp). The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, and the league quality is high. However, the Elo difference is slightly negative, which poses a risk. Main risk: Lower historical CLV and potential underperformance due to Elo gap.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 9.00
  1. 2026-10-02 Pass Ranked 18/152 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.0). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-03 Pass Ranked 6/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.4). Main risk: N/A.
  3. 2026-10-04 Candidate pick @ 9.00
51 Rivers United vs Ikorodu City 2-0 ✗ Incorrect NPFL 2026-10-04 FADE Ikorodu City Win 15.00 — — 65 🔥
Entry 27d ago
15.00
Why

Ikorodu City shows strong drift and significant closing edge (30.39 pp), but the odds have doubled, suggesting potential overreaction. Elo and xG metrics are unfavorable for the away side, and the league quality is high, which increases the risk. Main risk: High volatility and potential mispricing due to drift.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-04 Candidate pick @ 15.00
52 Bahamas vs US Virgin Islands 2-3 ✗ Incorrect CONCACAF Nations League 2026-10-04 BET Bahamas Win 6.25 — — 72 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 27d ago
6.25
Why

Bahamas has strong steam and significant closing edge (23.46 pp). The market has sharply repriced, indicating confidence in the home side's chances. While the league quality is high, the historical CLV is weak, which is a concern. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction to market movement.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.25
  1. 2026-10-04 Candidate pick @ 6.25
53 Hong Kong vs Cambodia 2-0 ✗ Incorrect FIFA Asean Cup 2026-10-03 BET Cambodia Win 5.75 — — 70 🔥
Entry 28d ago
5.75
Why

Cambodia shows strong drift with a significant odds movement from 4.1 to 5.75. The model probability of 34.24% is notably higher than the market probability of 17.39%, indicating value. Main risk: Cambodia's lower Elo rating and league quality compared to Hong Kong.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.75
  1. 2026-10-03 Candidate pick @ 5.75
54 Netherlands vs Serbia UEFA Nations League 2026-10-03 BET Serbia Win 17.00 — — 78 ⚡
Entry 28d ago
17.00
Why

Serbia has an exceptional closing edge of 30.64 and a massive odds drift from 1.5 to 17.0, suggesting strong market movement. The model probability of 36.52% is significantly higher than the market probability of 5.88%, presenting a high-value opportunity. Main risk: High volatility and Serbia's lower Elo rating compared to the Netherlands.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-02 Candidate pick @ 15.00
  2. 2026-10-02 Replaced with updated pick @ 15.00
  3. 2026-10-03 Candidate pick @ 17.00 (Candidate pick 15.00)
  4. 2026-10-03 Withdrawn before validation @ 17.00 (Candidate pick 15.00)
  5. 2026-10-04 Pass Ranked 4/112 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
55 Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town 1-0 ✗ Incorrect FA Cup 2026-10-03 BET Chatham Town Win 6.00 — — 85 🔥
Entry 28d ago
6.00
Why

Chatham Town has a strong steam signal with a significant odds drop from 9.0 to 6.0, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability of 37.54% is much higher than the market probability of 16.67%, providing a strong value edge. Main risk: Chatham Town has a lower Elo rating and slight xG disadvantage, which could impact their performance.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.00
  1. 2026-10-03 Candidate pick @ 6.00
56 Nicaragua vs Costa Rica 0-3 ✗ Incorrect CONCACAF Nations League 2026-10-02 FADE Nicaragua Win 8.00 — — 70 🔥
Entry 29d ago
8.00
Why

Nicaragua's odds have drifted sharply, but the model probability is high relative to market probability. However, high volatility and significant elo disadvantage make this a risky bet. Main risk: Nicaragua's weak historical performance against stronger teams like Costa Rica.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.00
  1. 2026-10-01 Pass Ranked 66/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-02 Candidate pick @ 8.00
57 Netherlands vs Serbia UEFA Nations League 2026-10-02 BET Serbia Win 15.00 — — 80 🔥
Entry 29d ago
15.00
Why

Serbia has a massive closing edge and strong drift signal, with model probability significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: High volatility and the Netherlands' strong historical form could pose challenges.

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ○ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-02 Candidate pick @ 15.00
  2. 2026-10-02 Replaced with updated pick @ 15.00
  3. 2026-10-03 Candidate pick @ 17.00 (Candidate pick 15.00)
  4. 2026-10-03 Withdrawn before validation @ 17.00 (Candidate pick 15.00)
  5. 2026-10-04 Pass Ranked 4/112 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
58 Vietnam vs Pakistan 4-2 ✗ Incorrect FIFA Asean Cup 2026-10-02 BET Pakistan Win 12.00 — — 85 🔥
Entry 29d ago
12.00
Why

Pakistan shows strong steam and sharp market repricing, with significant closing edge and model probability far exceeding market probability. Main risk: Pakistan's historical performance and low league quality could limit upside.

🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 12.00
  1. 2026-10-01 Pass Ranked 11/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-10-02 Candidate pick @ 12.00
59 Paris Saint Germain W vs OH Leuven W 5-0 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Champions League Women 2026-10-01 BET OH Leuven W Win 15.00 — — 75 ⚡
Entry 30d ago
15.00
Why

OH Leuven W shows strong drift signals with a high closing edge (28.97) and significant model probability (35.64% vs market 6.67%). The pattern similarity is strong (50%), indicating historical alignment. Main risk: Lower league quality and Elo difference favoring PSG.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 15.00
  1. 2026-10-01 Candidate pick @ 15.00
60 Germany vs Serbia 2-0 ✗ Incorrect UEFA Nations League 2026-10-01 BET Serbia Win 13.00 — — 80 ⚡
Entry 30d ago
13.00
Why

Serbia's odds have drifted significantly (766.7% move_pct), and the closing edge is strong (28.05). The model probability (35.74%) far exceeds the market probability (7.69%), suggesting value. Main risk: High volatility in the market and the Elo difference favoring Germany.

⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 13.00
  1. 2026-10-01 Candidate pick @ 13.00
61 British Virgin Islands vs Montserrat 0-2 ✗ Incorrect CONCACAF Nations League 2026-10-01 BET British Virgin Islands Win 8.50 — — 78 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 30d ago
8.50
Why

The British Virgin Islands show strong drift signals with significant closing edge (23.41) and favorable model probability (35.17% vs market 11.76%). The league quality is high, and the market state indicates repricing. Main risk: The team has a negative Elo difference (-23.2), suggesting weaker historical performance.

🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.50
  1. 2026-10-01 Candidate pick @ 8.50