Balanced AI combines market steam and model edge — acting only when multiple signals align.
-
Average entry
31h before kickoff
-
Positive CLV
in 50% of bets
-
Best leagues
UEFA Nations League · CONCACAF Nations League · Premier League
Strategy
Looks for
- ✓ Model edge
- ✓ Market steam
- ✓ Multi-signal confirmation
- ✓ Value + mover overlap
Avoids
- ✗ Negative edge
- ✗ Weak signals
- ✗ Conflicting signals
Evidence Strength
🟡
Moderate Evidence
Settled picks: 41 / 50
9 more settled picks required for official ranking
Evidence
🟡 Moderate Evidence
41 / 50
Record 5-36
·
Win Rate 12.2%
·
Profit +8.9u
·
Total Staked 41.0u
·
Avg Stake 1.00u
All-Time Record
Evidence
🟢 Strong Evidence
179 / 50
Record 22-157
·
Win Rate 12.3%
·
Profit +54.3u
·
Total Staked 179.0u
·
Avg Stake 1.00u
Season picks
ID
Match
Pick Date
Pick
Odds
Exp Close
CLV
Score
Signal
1
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva
Meistriliiga
2026-10-31
BET
Trans Narva Win
11.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
-
2026-10-31
Candidate pick
@ 11.00
2
Dinamo Batumi vs Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
2026-10-31
BET
Meshakhte Win
6.50
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
-
2026-10-31
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
3
Charlton Athletic W vs Chelsea W
FA WSL
2026-10-31
BET
Charlton Athletic W Win
17.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
-
2026-10-28
Pass
Ranked 27/177 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 84.33). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-31
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
4
Kapaz vs Baku Sportinq
3-1
✗ Incorrect
Cup
2026-10-28
BET
Baku Sportinq Win
34.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
34.00
-
2026-10-28
Candidate pick
@ 34.00
5
Chelsea W vs Roma W
2-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League Women
2026-10-28
BET
Roma W Win
15.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-28
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
6
SSV Jeddeloh vs Hertha BSC
0-2
✗ Incorrect
DFB Pokal
2026-10-28
BET
SSV Jeddeloh Win
26.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
26.00
-
2026-10-25
Pass
Ranked 80/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.47). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-26
Pass
Ranked 20/76 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.47). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-27
Candidate pick
@ 26.00
-
2026-10-28
Update
@ 26.00
7
Frosinone vs Lecce
Serie A
2026-10-27
FADE
Lecce Win
5.00
—
—
70
⚡
▾
Why
Lecce has strong drift signals with a 74 steam score and a closing edge of 21.58 percentage points. However, the odds have drifted significantly, and the market probability is low at 20%. Main risk: The drift could indicate market overreaction, and Lecce's xG disadvantage adds uncertainty.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
-
2026-10-27
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
-
2026-10-27
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.00
-
2026-10-28
Pass
Ranked 60/177 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 70.15). Main risk: N/A.
8
Penicuik Athletic vs Clyde
FA Cup
2026-10-27
BET
Penicuik Athletic Win
6.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Penicuik Athletic shows strong steam with a 91 steam score and a closing edge of 18.5 percentage points. The sharp repricing and high league quality further support this pick. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and lack of xG edge.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
-
2026-10-25
Pass
Ranked 19/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.6). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-26
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
-
2026-10-26
Replaced with updated pick
@ 6.50
-
2026-10-27
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
(Candidate pick 6.50)
-
2026-10-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 6.00
(Candidate pick 6.50)
9
Penicuik Athletic vs Clyde
1-1
✗ Incorrect
FA Cup
2026-10-26
BET
Penicuik Athletic Win
6.50
—
—
75
⚡
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Penicuik Athletic has a strong closing edge of 19.79 percentage points and a model probability of 35.17% compared to the market probability of 15.38%. The market is showing sharp repricing, and the intel signal indicates market steam. Main risk: Elo difference favors Clyde, suggesting a potential quality mismatch.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
-
2026-10-25
Pass
Ranked 19/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.6). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-26
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
-
2026-10-26
Replaced with updated pick
@ 6.50
-
2026-10-27
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
(Candidate pick 6.50)
-
2026-10-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 6.00
(Candidate pick 6.50)
10
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir
2-0
✗ Incorrect
Süper Lig
2026-10-26
BET
Başakşehir Win
9.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Başakşehir has a strong closing edge of 18.99 percentage points and a model probability of 30.1% compared to the market probability of 11.11%. The market is showing drift repricing, and the xG difference is favorable for the away side. Main risk: Elo difference favors Beşiktaş, indicating a potential quality gap.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
-
2026-10-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=134.1h, hist_n=105, hist_clv_rate=46%)
-
2026-10-25
Pass
Ranked 69/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.85). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-26
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
11
Sevilla vs Osasuna
2-0
✗ Incorrect
La Liga
2026-10-26
BET
Osasuna Win
4.50
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Osasuna has a strong model probability of 54.45% compared to the market probability of 22.22%, indicating significant value. The closing edge is very high at 32.23 percentage points, and the market is showing signs of drift repricing, which aligns with the model's confidence. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics favor Sevilla, suggesting a potential mismatch in quality.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
-
2026-10-26
Candidate pick
@ 4.50
12
Girona II vs Náxara
3-0
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
2026-10-25
BET
Náxara Win
10.00
—
—
76
🔥
▾
Why
Náxara has a strong drift signal with a move percentage of 42.9%. The model probability of 34.7% is significantly higher than the market probability of 10%, providing a strong value edge. The closing edge is also high at 24.7, and the league quality is decent. Main risk: The elo difference is unfavorable, which could indicate a gap in team quality.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
10.00
-
2026-10-25
Candidate pick
@ 10.00
13
Club Africain vs TP Mazembe
1-0
✗ Incorrect
CAF Champions League
2026-10-25
BET
TP Mazembe Win
7.50
—
—
75
🔥
▾
Why
TP Mazembe has a strong steam signal with a high steam score of 86 and a closing edge of 23.73. The model probability of 37.06% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%, suggesting value. The league quality is high, which adds credibility to the data. Main risk: The elo and xG differences are negative, indicating a potential mismatch in team strength.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
-
2026-10-21
Pass
Ranked 29/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.75). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-22
Pass
Ranked 35/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.75). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-25
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
14
Cjarlins Muzane vs Virtus Bolzano
3-2
✗ Incorrect
Serie D - Girone C
2026-10-25
BET
Virtus Bolzano Win
10.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Virtus Bolzano shows strong drift with a significant move percentage of 73.9%. The model probability of 36.59% is much higher than the market probability of 10%, indicating value. The closing edge is also high at 26.59, and the league quality is decent. Main risk: The xG difference is slightly negative, which suggests a potential underperformance.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
10.00
-
2026-10-25
Candidate pick
@ 10.00
15
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
2-4
✓ Correct
UEFA Europa League
2026-10-22
BET
NEC Nijmegen Win
5.00
—
—
75
⚡
▾
Why
NEC Nijmegen displays strong drift with a steam score of 63 and a model probability of 35.25%, which is significantly higher than the market probability of 20%. This creates a closing edge of 15.25 percentage points. Main risk: Dinamo Zagreb's higher league quality and home advantage.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
-
2026-10-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=111.0h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
-
2026-10-21
Pass
Ranked 53/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.92). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-22
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
16
Toluca vs Club Tijuana
2-2
✗ Incorrect
Liga MX
2026-10-22
BET
Club Tijuana Win
9.00
—
—
80
⚡
▾
Why
Club Tijuana has a strong drift signal with a steam score of 74 and a move percentage of 50%. The model probability of 38.64% is significantly higher than the market probability of 11.11%, resulting in a closing edge of 27.53 percentage points. Main risk: Toluca's superior Elo rating and home advantage.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
-
2026-10-21
Pass
Ranked 14/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 86.3). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-22
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
17
Trabzonspor vs Heart Of Midlothian
2-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-10-22
BET
Heart Of Midlothian Win
10.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Heart Of Midlothian shows strong steam with a high steam score of 79 and significant move percentage of 81.8%. The model probability of 33.29% is substantially higher than the market probability of 10%, creating a closing edge of 23.29 percentage points. Main risk: Trabzonspor's higher league quality and home advantage.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
10.00
-
2026-10-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=63.3h, hist_n=105, hist_clv_rate=40%)
-
2026-10-21
Pass
Ranked 5/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.85). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-22
Candidate pick
@ 10.00
18
MC Alger vs Enugu Rangers
CAF Champions League
2026-10-21
BET
Enugu Rangers Win
15.00
—
—
73
⚡
▾
Why
Enugu Rangers has a strong closing edge (25.72) and a model probability (32.39%) that far exceeds the market probability (6.67%). Steam score is solid at 67, and the market is illiquid, which may amplify edge. Main risk: Elo difference (+31) favors the home team, indicating a stronger opponent.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-20
Pass
Ranked 14/129 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 86.0). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-21
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-21
Withdrawn before validation
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-22
Pass
Ranked 62/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 68.95). Main risk: N/A.
19
OFI vs Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
2026-10-21
BET
OFI Win
12.00
—
—
75
🔥
▾
Why
OFI has a strong closing edge (29.07) and significant steam (76 steam score, 41.2% move). The model probability (37.4%) is much higher than the market probability (8.33%), suggesting value. Main risk: Large negative Elo difference (-46.6) indicates a weaker team on paper.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
-
2026-10-17
Pass
Ranked 47/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-20
Pass
Ranked 23/129 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.38). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-21
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-21
Withdrawn before validation
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-22
Pass
Ranked 20/141 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.25). Main risk: N/A.
20
Xankəndi FK vs Mingəçevir
0-1
✓ Correct
Birinci Dasta
2026-10-21
BET
Mingəçevir Win
13.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Mingəçevir shows significant closing edge (31.28) and strong steam with a high move percentage (108%). The model probability (38.97%) is substantially higher than the market probability (7.69%), indicating value. Main risk: High volatility and negative xG differential (-0.16) suggest potential underperformance.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
-
2026-10-21
Candidate pick
@ 13.00
21
Suphanburi vs Lamphun Warrior
0-4
✗ Incorrect
FA Cup
2026-10-20
BET
Suphanburi Win
17.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Suphanburi exhibits strong drift with odds moving from 6.25 to 17.0, and the model probability of 32.39% is much higher than the market probability of 5.88%. Main risk: High volatility and Suphanburi's Elo disadvantage.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
-
2026-10-20
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
22
Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt
Copa Chile
2026-10-20
BET
D. Puerto Montt Win
5.25
5.00
+0.9pp
78
🔥
▾
Why
D. Puerto Montt shows strong steam with odds shortening from 7.0 to 5.25. The model probability of 39.94% is significantly higher than the market probability of 19.05%, indicating value. Main risk: Colo Colo's higher Elo and xG advantage could still pose a challenge.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
-
2026-10-06
Candidate pick
@ 11.00
-
2026-10-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 11.00
-
2026-10-20
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
(Candidate pick 11.00)
-
—
Closing
@ 5.00
23
Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC
5-1
✓ Correct
UEFA Champions League
2026-10-20
FADE
Manchester City Win
17.00
1.14
+81.8pp
85
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
CLV vs Closing
+81.8pp
Why
AEK Athens FC has strong steam and sharp repricing, with odds halving from 34.0 to 17.0. The model probability of 34.82% far exceeds the market probability of 5.88%, suggesting value on the away side. Main risk: Manchester City is a dominant team, and the volatility is high.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
-
2026-10-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.5h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
-
2026-10-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=89.1h, hist_n=103, hist_clv_rate=40%)
-
2026-10-20
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
-
—
Closing
@ 1.14
24
Chicago Red Stars W vs Seattle Reign FC W
1-3
✗ Incorrect
NWSL Women
2026-10-18
BET
Chicago Red Stars W Win
6.50
—
—
75
🔥
▾
Why
Chicago Red Stars W exhibit strong steam and a closing edge of 23.88 percentage points. The model probability is much higher than the market probability, suggesting good value. Main risk: League quality is low, which might affect reliability of data.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
-
2026-10-17
Pass
Ranked 13/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.6). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-18
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
25
Club Atlético Güemes vs Almagro
2-1
✓ Correct
Primera Nacional
2026-10-18
BET
Club Atlético Güemes Win
8.50
—
—
78
⚡
▾
Why
Club Atlético Güemes has an exceptional closing edge of 29.15 percentage points and strong drift signals. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: High volatility in odds movement may reflect uncertainty.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
-
2026-10-17
Pass
Ranked 22/283 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.07). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-18
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
26
Tampines Rovers vs Young Lions
4-1
✗ Incorrect
Premier League
2026-10-18
BET
Young Lions Win
23.00
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Young Lions show strong steam with a significant closing edge of 17.37 percentage points. Market repricing suggests sharp money backing the away side, and the model probability is substantially higher than the market probability. Main risk: Young Lions have a lower Elo rating and are underdogs.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
23.00
-
2026-10-18
Candidate pick
@ 23.00
27
Sydney United vs Canberra FC
Australian Championship
2026-10-17
BET
Canberra FC Win
12.00
—
—
80
🔥
▾
Why
Canberra FC shows strong drift with odds moving from 6.5 to 12.0, indicating market undervaluation. The model probability of 35.17% is much higher than the market probability of 8.33%, creating a closing edge of 26.84. Main risk: Sydney United's home advantage and league quality.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
-
2026-10-16
Pass
Ranked 4/201 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.4). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-17
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-17
Withdrawn before validation
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-18
Pass
Ranked 5/154 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 92.65). Main risk: N/A.
28
Queen of the South vs Ross County
1-7
✗ Incorrect
League One
2026-10-17
BET
Queen of the South Win
7.50
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Queen of the South exhibits strong steam and sharp repricing, with odds moving from 9.0 to 7.5. The model probability of 38.97% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%, yielding a closing edge of 25.64. Main risk: Ross County's higher Elo rating and league quality.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
-
2026-10-17
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
29
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh
Premier League
2026-10-17
BET
Irtysh Win
8.25
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Irtysh shows strong steam with a significant odds drop from 13.0 to 8.25, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability of 26.64% is well above the market probability of 12.12%, creating a positive closing edge of 14.52. Main risk: Kairat Almaty has a higher league quality and home advantage.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.90
-
2026-10-16
Candidate pick
@ 8.90
-
2026-10-16
Replaced with updated pick
@ 8.90
-
2026-10-17
Candidate pick
@ 8.25
(Candidate pick 8.90)
-
2026-10-17
Replaced with updated pick
@ 8.25
(Candidate pick 8.90)
30
Universitario de Vinto vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo
2-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera División
2026-10-16
BET
San Antonio Bulo Bulo Win
4.10
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
San Antonio Bulo Bulo has a strong market steam signal with a closing edge of 20.85 percentage points and a model probability (45.24%) significantly higher than the market probability (24.39%). The odds movement from 4.75 to 4.1 reflects sharp repricing. Main risk: The Elo and xG differences slightly favor Universitario de Vinto, which could pose a challenge.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.10
-
2026-10-16
Candidate pick
@ 4.10
31
Kolbotn W vs Åsane W
1. Division Women
2026-10-16
FADE
Kolbotn W Win
15.00
—
—
70
🔥
▾
Why
Kolbotn W has experienced a strong drift with a move percentage of 76.5%, and the current odds have significantly lengthened from 8.5 to 15.0. Despite a high model probability of 35.17%, the market probability is only 6.67%, indicating a potential overreaction. Main risk: The high volatility and low league quality may introduce unpredictability.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-16
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-17
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/283, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-18
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/154, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-20
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/129, pre-LLM score 96.15). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-21
Pass
Ranked 30/167 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.48). Main risk: N/A.
32
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh
5-0
✗ Incorrect
Premier League
2026-10-16
BET
Irtysh Win
8.90
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Irtysh has a strong steam score of 93 and a significant closing edge of 15.4 percentage points, indicating value in the odds. The market has sharply repriced, and the model probability (26.64%) is substantially higher than the market probability (11.24%). Main risk: The league quality is high, and Kairat Almaty has a significant Elo advantage, which could make this a challenging bet.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.90
-
2026-10-16
Candidate pick
@ 8.90
-
2026-10-16
Replaced with updated pick
@ 8.90
-
2026-10-17
Candidate pick
@ 8.25
(Candidate pick 8.90)
-
2026-10-17
Replaced with updated pick
@ 8.25
(Candidate pick 8.90)
33
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava
4-2
✗ Incorrect
Virsliga
2026-10-11
BET
FS Jelgava Win
17.00
—
—
80
⚡
▾
Why
FS Jelgava has strong drift and a high closing edge (21.62pp). The model probability of 27.5% is far above the market's 5.88%, indicating strong value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Rīgas FS.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
17.00
-
2026-10-07
Pass
Ranked 15/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.91). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 42/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 67.9). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-11
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
34
Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
1-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera A
2026-10-11
BET
Águilas Doradas Win
4.20
—
—
78
⚡
▾
Why
Águilas Doradas shows strong market steam and a high closing edge (24.64pp). The model probability of 48.45% is significantly above the market's 23.81%. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Bucaramanga.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.20
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 60/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 59.03). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 110/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 63.03). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-11
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
35
Lazio vs Monza
3-1
✗ Incorrect
Serie A
2026-10-11
BET
Monza Win
5.50
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Monza has strong steam and significant closing edge (22.73pp). The model probability of 40.91% is much higher than the market's 18.18%, suggesting value. Main risk: Lazio's higher Elo rating and home advantage.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
-
2026-10-07
Pass
Ranked 25/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 30/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 68/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 71.1). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-11
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
36
Patronato vs Club Atlético Güemes
Primera Nacional
2026-10-09
BET
Club Atlético Güemes Win
7.50
8.50
-1.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Why
Club Atlético Güemes exhibits a strong closing edge of 22.78, with model probability (36.11%) far exceeding market probability (13.33%). The drift signal is strong, and volatility is low, making this a favorable bet. Main risk: Patronato's slightly better elo differential and home advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 16/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.85). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-09
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
-
2026-10-09
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.50
-
2026-10-11
Pass
Ranked 44/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.45). Main risk: N/A.
-
—
Closing
@ 8.50
37
Real Betis vs Osasuna
La Liga
2026-10-09
BET
Osasuna Win
6.25
6.50
-0.6pp
85
⚡
▾
Why
Osasuna has an exceptional closing edge of 32.89, with strong model probability (48.89%) compared to market probability (16%). The drift signal is robust, and the league quality is high (La Liga). Main risk: Real Betis's significant elo advantage and home-field strength.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 4/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-09
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
-
2026-10-09
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.25
-
2026-10-11
Pass
Ranked 12/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.15). Main risk: N/A.
-
—
Closing
@ 6.50
38
Albania W vs Wales W
0-1
✗ Incorrect
World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe
2026-10-09
BET
Albania W Win
15.00
—
—
80
⚡
▾
Why
Albania W shows a significant closing edge of 29.44, driven by strong model probability (36.11%) versus market probability (6.67%). The historical CLV rate is positive, and the pattern similarity is high at 50%. Main risk: Albania W's low league quality and negative elo differential against Wales W.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-09
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
39
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town
1-2
✗ Incorrect
Premier League
2026-10-08
BET
Haverfordwest County AFC Win
6.00
—
—
72
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
-
2026-10-08
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
40
Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto
2-0
✗ Incorrect
Copa de la División Profesional
2026-10-08
BET
Universitario de Vinto Win
11.00
9.30
+1.7pp
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
-
2026-10-07
Pass
Ranked 74/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-08
Candidate pick
@ 11.00
-
—
Closing
@ 9.30
41
Cukaricki vs Macva
Super Liga
2026-10-08
BET
Macva Win
8.50
—
—
72
🔥
▾
Why
Fits this AI strategy's typical setup. Main risk: unfavorable line movement after entry.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
-
2026-10-07
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
-
2026-10-08
Update
@ 8.50
-
2026-10-08
Withdrawn before validation
@ 8.50
-
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 5/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.65). Main risk: N/A.
42
Athlone Town vs Treaty United
1-2
✓ Correct
First Division
2026-10-07
BET
Treaty United Win
6.37
8.89
-4.5pp
80
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Expected CLV
-4.5pp
Why
Treaty United exhibits strong drift signals and a high closing edge (22.31 pp). The model probability (38.01%) is well above the market probability (15.7%), indicating value. Main risk: Elo difference (-72.7) and xG difference (-0.12) suggest a weaker team overall.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.37
-
2026-10-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.4h, hist_n=99, hist_clv_rate=15%)
-
2026-10-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=113.4h, hist_n=100, hist_clv_rate=15%)
-
2026-10-06
Pass
Ranked 11/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.9). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-07
Candidate pick
@ 6.37
-
—
Closing
@ 8.89
43
Diosgyori VTK vs Szentlőrinc SE
NB II
2026-10-07
BET
Szentlőrinc SE Win
5.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Szentlőrinc SE has strong steam and sharp repricing, with a solid closing edge (14.24 pp). The model probability (34.24%) is significantly higher than the market probability (20.0%), providing value. Main risk: Elo difference (129.5) suggests Diosgyori VTK is a stronger team.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
-
2026-10-07
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
-
2026-10-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.00
-
2026-10-08
Pass
Ranked 7/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-09
Pass
Ranked 4/252 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-11
Pass
Ranked 6/178 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.7). Main risk: N/A.
44
Croatia vs Spain
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-06
FADE
Croatia Win
9.50
—
—
65
🔥
▾
Why
Croatia has strong drift and closing edge (18.55), but the Elo and xG gaps (-81.8 and -0.23) heavily favor Spain. Main risk: Croatia's underdog status and low market probability (10.53%).
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
-
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 65/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
-
2026-10-05
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.00
-
2026-10-06
Candidate pick
@ 9.50
(Candidate pick 9.00)
-
2026-10-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.50
(Candidate pick 9.00)
45
Moldova vs Slovakia
0-4
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-06
BET
Moldova Win
7.50
7.00
+0.9pp
78
🔥
▾
Why
Moldova shows strong drift and a high closing edge (19.5), with model probability (32.83%) notably higher than market probability (13.33%). Main risk: Slovakia's higher Elo rating and historical performance.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
-
2026-10-05
Pass
Ranked 4/75 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.6). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-06
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
-
—
Closing
@ 7.00
46
Colo Colo vs D. Puerto Montt
Copa Chile
2026-10-06
BET
D. Puerto Montt Win
11.00
5.00
+10.9pp
85
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
CLV vs Closing
+10.9pp
Why
D. Puerto Montt has a significant closing edge (30.85) and strong drift signal, with model probability (39.94%) far exceeding market probability (9.09%). Main risk: Colo Colo's superior team quality and home advantage.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
-
2026-10-06
Candidate pick
@ 11.00
-
2026-10-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 11.00
-
2026-10-20
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
(Candidate pick 11.00)
-
—
Closing
@ 5.00
47
Peterborough vs Ipswich Town U21
EFL Trophy
2026-10-05
BET
Ipswich Town U21 Win
12.00
19.00
-3.1pp
80
⚡
▾
Why
Ipswich Town U21 has a strong closing edge of 24.06 percentage points and sharp-led market signals. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Ipswich Town U21's lower league quality and breadth percentage could indicate limited market support.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
-
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 12.00
-
2026-10-06
Pass
Ranked 25/103 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.47). Main risk: N/A.
-
—
Closing
@ 19.00
48
Croatia vs Spain
1-2
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
FADE
Croatia Win
9.00
—
—
78
🔥
▾
Why
Croatia's odds have drifted significantly, and while the model probability is higher than the market probability, the Elo and xG differences are notably negative. This suggests Croatia may struggle against Spain. Main risk: The model sees value, but Spain's superior metrics and the drift signal caution.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
-
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 65/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.9). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
-
2026-10-05
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.00
-
2026-10-06
Candidate pick
@ 9.50
(Candidate pick 9.00)
-
2026-10-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.50
(Candidate pick 9.00)
49
Cyprus vs Latvia
2-1
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-05
BET
Latvia Win
6.25
6.50
-0.6pp
85
🔥
▾
Why
Latvia shows strong market drift with a significant closing edge of 25.68 percentage points. The model probability is substantially higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Latvia's lower Elo and xG metrics suggest they are underdogs, and the odds drift could reflect genuine market skepticism.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
-
2026-10-05
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
-
—
Closing
@ 6.50
50
Zaragoza vs Teruel
4-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera División RFEF - Group 2
2026-10-04
BET
Teruel Win
9.00
—
—
68
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Teruel has strong drift and a solid closing edge (19.47 pp). The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, and the league quality is high. However, the Elo difference is slightly negative, which poses a risk. Main risk: Lower historical CLV and potential underperformance due to Elo gap.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
-
2026-10-02
Pass
Ranked 18/152 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.0). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-03
Pass
Ranked 6/189 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.4). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-04
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
51
Rivers United vs Ikorodu City
2-0
✗ Incorrect
NPFL
2026-10-04
FADE
Ikorodu City Win
15.00
—
—
65
🔥
▾
Why
Ikorodu City shows strong drift and significant closing edge (30.39 pp), but the odds have doubled, suggesting potential overreaction. Elo and xG metrics are unfavorable for the away side, and the league quality is high, which increases the risk. Main risk: High volatility and potential mispricing due to drift.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-04
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
52
Bahamas vs US Virgin Islands
2-3
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Nations League
2026-10-04
BET
Bahamas Win
6.25
—
—
72
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
Bahamas has strong steam and significant closing edge (23.46 pp). The market has sharply repriced, indicating confidence in the home side's chances. While the league quality is high, the historical CLV is weak, which is a concern. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction to market movement.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
-
2026-10-04
Candidate pick
@ 6.25
53
Hong Kong vs Cambodia
2-0
✗ Incorrect
FIFA Asean Cup
2026-10-03
BET
Cambodia Win
5.75
—
—
70
🔥
▾
Why
Cambodia shows strong drift with a significant odds movement from 4.1 to 5.75. The model probability of 34.24% is notably higher than the market probability of 17.39%, indicating value. Main risk: Cambodia's lower Elo rating and league quality compared to Hong Kong.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
-
2026-10-03
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
54
Netherlands vs Serbia
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-03
BET
Serbia Win
17.00
—
—
78
⚡
▾
Why
Serbia has an exceptional closing edge of 30.64 and a massive odds drift from 1.5 to 17.0, suggesting strong market movement. The model probability of 36.52% is significantly higher than the market probability of 5.88%, presenting a high-value opportunity. Main risk: High volatility and Serbia's lower Elo rating compared to the Netherlands.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-02
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-02
Replaced with updated pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-03
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
(Candidate pick 15.00)
-
2026-10-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 17.00
(Candidate pick 15.00)
-
2026-10-04
Pass
Ranked 4/112 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
55
Dorking Wanderers vs Chatham Town
1-0
✗ Incorrect
FA Cup
2026-10-03
BET
Chatham Town Win
6.00
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Chatham Town has a strong steam signal with a significant odds drop from 9.0 to 6.0, indicating sharp market interest. The model probability of 37.54% is much higher than the market probability of 16.67%, providing a strong value edge. Main risk: Chatham Town has a lower Elo rating and slight xG disadvantage, which could impact their performance.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
-
2026-10-03
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
56
Nicaragua vs Costa Rica
0-3
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Nations League
2026-10-02
FADE
Nicaragua Win
8.00
—
—
70
🔥
▾
Why
Nicaragua's odds have drifted sharply, but the model probability is high relative to market probability. However, high volatility and significant elo disadvantage make this a risky bet. Main risk: Nicaragua's weak historical performance against stronger teams like Costa Rica.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.00
-
2026-10-01
Pass
Ranked 66/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-02
Candidate pick
@ 8.00
57
Netherlands vs Serbia
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-02
BET
Serbia Win
15.00
—
—
80
🔥
▾
Why
Serbia has a massive closing edge and strong drift signal, with model probability significantly higher than market probability. Main risk: High volatility and the Netherlands' strong historical form could pose challenges.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
○
Closed
-
○
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-02
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-02
Replaced with updated pick
@ 15.00
-
2026-10-03
Candidate pick
@ 17.00
(Candidate pick 15.00)
-
2026-10-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 17.00
(Candidate pick 15.00)
-
2026-10-04
Pass
Ranked 4/112 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
58
Vietnam vs Pakistan
4-2
✗ Incorrect
FIFA Asean Cup
2026-10-02
BET
Pakistan Win
12.00
—
—
85
🔥
▾
Why
Pakistan shows strong steam and sharp market repricing, with significant closing edge and model probability far exceeding market probability. Main risk: Pakistan's historical performance and low league quality could limit upside.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
-
2026-10-01
Pass
Ranked 11/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.9). Main risk: N/A.
-
2026-10-02
Candidate pick
@ 12.00
59
Paris Saint Germain W vs OH Leuven W
5-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League Women
2026-10-01
BET
OH Leuven W Win
15.00
—
—
75
⚡
▾
Why
OH Leuven W shows strong drift signals with a high closing edge (28.97) and significant model probability (35.64% vs market 6.67%). The pattern similarity is strong (50%), indicating historical alignment. Main risk: Lower league quality and Elo difference favoring PSG.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
-
2026-10-01
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
60
Germany vs Serbia
2-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Nations League
2026-10-01
BET
Serbia Win
13.00
—
—
80
⚡
▾
Why
Serbia's odds have drifted significantly (766.7% move_pct), and the closing edge is strong (28.05). The model probability (35.74%) far exceeds the market probability (7.69%), suggesting value. Main risk: High volatility in the market and the Elo difference favoring Germany.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
-
2026-10-01
Candidate pick
@ 13.00
61
British Virgin Islands vs Montserrat
0-2
✗ Incorrect
CONCACAF Nations League
2026-10-01
BET
British Virgin Islands Win
8.50
—
—
78
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
Why
The British Virgin Islands show strong drift signals with significant closing edge (23.41) and favorable model probability (35.17% vs market 11.76%). The league quality is high, and the market state indicates repricing. Main risk: The team has a negative Elo difference (-23.2), suggesting weaker historical performance.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
-
✓
Pick Generated
-
✓
Market Tracked
-
✓
Closed
-
✓
ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
-
2026-10-01
Candidate pick
@ 8.50