1Vestri vs QarabagUEFA Europa League
2026-07-14
BETVestri Win
19.00
44.74
-3.0pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
77d ago
19.00
→
Expected Closing
44.74
Expected CLV
-3.0pp
Why
Vestri's odds have drifted significantly, creating a high closing edge of 34.2 percentage points. The model probability of 39.46% is much higher than the market's 5.26%, suggesting strong value. Main risk: Vestri's low Elo rating and perceived underdog status against Qarabag.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
19.00
2026-07-13
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
2026-07-13
Replaced with updated pick
@ 15.00
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 19.00
2026-07-14
Withdrawn before validation
@ 19.00
2026-07-15
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/96, pre-LLM score 95.62). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-16
Pass
Ranked 7/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.3). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 1.02
2Levski Sofia vs Borac Banja Luka4-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-14
BETBorac Banja Luka Win
9.00
10.52
-1.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
77d ago
9.00
→
Expected Closing
10.52
Expected CLV
-1.6pp
Why
Borac Banja Luka's odds have drifted sharply, leading to a closing edge of 22.66 percentage points. The model probability of 33.77% is significantly higher than the market's 11.11%. Main risk: Levski Sofia's slight Elo advantage and home-field edge.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-07-11
Pass
Ranked 22/114 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.92). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-13
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/51, pre-LLM score 92.33). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 9.00
—
Closing
@ 10.52
3Real Oruro vs Always Ready0-6
✗ Incorrect
Primera División
2026-07-14
BETReal Oruro Win
3.81
3.14
+5.6pp
90
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
77d ago
3.81
→
Expected Closing
3.14
Expected CLV
+5.6pp
Why
Real Oruro shows an exceptional closing edge of 46.27 percentage points, with the model probability at 72.52% versus the market's 26.25%. The xG difference of 1.83 also supports the pick. Main risk: Real Oruro's Elo disadvantage against Always Ready.
The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a negative move of -6.2% on the draw odds, indicating potential overreaction. Historical CLV is only marginally positive at 52%, and the pattern similarity is moderate at 60%. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could indicate insider information favoring the draw.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size54
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+44.0%
Coverage TierLow
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.75
2026-07-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=52, breadth=89%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=69.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 3.75
2026-07-14
Replaced with updated pick
@ 3.75
2026-07-15
Candidate pick
@ 3.80
—
Closing
@ 4.13
2KuPS vs Vardar Skopje2-3
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-14
FADEDraw
4.00
4.30
-1.7pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
77d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
4.30
Expected CLV
-1.7pp
Why
Although the market is showing sharp-led repricing with a positive move of 6.7%, the closing edge is only 4.65pp. Historical CLV is moderate at 52%, and pattern similarity is below 60%. Main risk: The sharp-led signal may still hold value despite the moderate edge.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size54
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+44.0%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=61.8h, hist_n=245, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=30, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=37.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
The market is experiencing drift repricing with an 8.1% positive move, but the historical CLV rate is only 52%, and pattern similarity is moderate at 56.7%. The closing edge is 4.65pp, which is below the threshold for a confident bet. Main risk: The market drift could still indicate latent value.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size54
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+44.0%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 4.00
2026-07-14
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.00
2026-07-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=47, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=39.8h, hist_n=198, hist_clv_rate=5%)
2026-07-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=49, breadth=77%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=15.5h, hist_n=195, hist_clv_rate=5%)
1Rochedale Rovers vs SD Raiders1-2
✗ Incorrect
Australia Cup
2026-07-14
FADEContrarianRochedale Rovers Win
2.00
2.98
-16.4pp
75
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
77d ago
2.00
→
Expected Closing
2.98
Expected CLV
-16.4pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed SD Raiders, but the model probability for their win is significantly lower than the market's, indicating overreaction. The sharp repricing suggests value on the home side, Rochedale Rovers. Main risk: Rochedale's lower Elo rating and slight xG disadvantage.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.00
2026-07-13
Pass
Ranked 4/5 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 65.13). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 2.00
—
Closing
@ 2.98
2Atletico Grau vs UTC CajamarcaPrimera División
2026-07-14
FADEValuation disagreementAtletico Grau Win
4.20
1.73
+34.0pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
77d ago
4.20
→
Expected Closing
1.73
Expected CLV
+34.0pp
Why
UTC Cajamarca has seen strong steam, but the model probability for their win is far below the market's, suggesting the move is unjustified. The home side, Atletico Grau, is overvalued as a result. Main risk: UTC Cajamarca's poor Elo and xG metrics.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.20
2026-07-14
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-14
Replaced with updated pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-15
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-16
Update
@ 4.20
2026-07-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=55, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=42.9h, hist_n=193, hist_clv_rate=5%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
77d ago
6.25
→
Expected Closing
1.45
Expected CLV
+53.0pp
Why
Qingdao Jonoon's odds have drifted significantly, but the market probability remains higher than the model's. This suggests the home side, Hangzhou Greentown, is overvalued. Main risk: Hangzhou's strong xG advantage and higher Elo rating.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=105.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=81.8h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Pass
Ranked 6/12 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.96). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-11
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
2026-07-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.50
2026-07-12
Pass
Ranked 4/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.93). Main risk: N/A.
