The model missed the final outcome (Vardar Skopje win 2–3).
The model had projected KuPS at 46.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 KuPS Vardar Skopje ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KuPS | 46.7% | 62.4% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.9% | 21.6% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Vardar Skopje | 26.3% | 16.0% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates KuPS's win probability at 62.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.7%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Vardar Skopje win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about KuPS than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned KuPS; match finished Vardar Skopje
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on KuPS by 15.7 percentage points (62.4% vs model 46.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · KuPS 46.7% · Draw 26.9% · Vardar Skopje 26.3%
- xG · KuPS 1.29 — Vardar Skopje 1.31
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · KuPS 1.49 · Draw 4.30 · Vardar Skopje 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · KuPS 62.4% · Draw 21.6% · Vardar Skopje 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · KuPS 1.49 · Draw 4.30 · Vardar Skopje 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · KuPS 62.4% · Draw 21.6% · Vardar Skopje 16.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vardar Skopje win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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UEFA Champions League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Lille | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 21 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Fenerbahce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | +1.7 | 3 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | +1.5 | 3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | +1.1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 6 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | +0.7 | 3 |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 9 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 10 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 0 |
| 11 | Lille | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 12 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 13 | Inter | 1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | -1.1 | 0 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 1 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -1.5 | 0 |
| 15 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 1.5 | 3.2 | -1.7 | 0 |
| 16 | FC Porto | 1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 18 | Bayern München | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 19 | Barcelona | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Manchester United | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Como | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Lens | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | Arsenal | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 26 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 27 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahce | 1 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 29 | Slavia Praha | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Napoli | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Viking | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
