1Irao vs Dinamo Batumi1-4
✗ Incorrect
David Kipiani Cup
2026-07-25
BETIrao Win
4.50
5.92
-5.3pp
72
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
66d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
5.92
Expected CLV
-5.3pp
Why
Irao has seen significant odds movement from 9.0 to 4.5, indicating strong market steam. The model probability of 36.59% exceeds the market probability of 22.22%, suggesting value. The closing edge is positive at 14.37, and the intel signal is strong steam. Main risk: High volatility and the league quality being relatively modest.
Port Melbourne shows strong steam with odds dropping from 10.0 to 8.0, and the model probability of 37.06% is significantly higher than the market probability of 12.5%. The closing edge is very high at 24.56, and the match is imminent, which reduces uncertainty. Main risk: Elo difference is unfavorable, indicating a potential mismatch in team quality.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.00
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 27/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.97). Main risk: N/A.
Weston Bears has experienced sharp odds movement from 26.0 to 8.5, driven by strong steam. The model probability of 39.46% is much higher than the market probability of 11.76%, and the closing edge is excellent at 27.7. Main risk: High volatility and potential overreaction to market signals.
1Irao vs Dinamo Batumi1-4
✗ Incorrect
David Kipiani Cup
2026-07-25
BETIrao Win
4.50
5.92
-5.3pp
85
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
66d ago
4.50
→
Expected Closing
5.92
Expected CLV
-5.3pp
Why
Irao has seen significant odds movement from 9.0 to 4.5, indicating strong market confidence. The model probability of 36.59% is well above the market's 22.22%, providing substantial closing edge. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical pattern support.
Juan Pablo II College shows sharp steam with odds dropping from 3.0 to 2.3. Model probability of 56.46% exceeds market's 43.48%, suggesting value. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and potential overreaction to steam.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.30
2026-07-22
Pass
Ranked 38/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 71.03). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-23
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=62, breadth=64%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=66.6h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
Launceston United's odds have collapsed from 34.0 to 12.0, but the team faces a massive Elo deficit (-201.6). Contrarian fade on Devonport City due to overreaction. Main risk: High volatility and sharp repricing signals.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
12.00
2026-07-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=14%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=147.0h, hist_n=229, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=14%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=122.7h, hist_n=224, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=14%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=98.6h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=14%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=74.4h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-23
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=14%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=50.8h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 9/50 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.38). Main risk: N/A.
1Radnicki NIS vs Cukaricki0-2
✗ Incorrect
Super Liga
2026-07-25
FADEValuation disagreementRadnicki NIS Win
2.88
2.15
+11.8pp
78
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
66d ago
2.88
→
Expected Closing
2.15
Expected CLV
+11.8pp
Why
Cukaricki's odds have drifted from 2.4 to 2.88, reflecting market doubts. The model assigns a low probability (15.82%) compared to the market (34.72%), and the closing edge is significantly negative (-18.9). Main risk: Cukaricki's slight Elo and xG advantages could still pose a threat to the home side.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.88
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 2.88
2026-07-25
Update
@ 2.88
—
Closing
@ 2.15
2São Bernardo vs CearaSerie B
2026-07-25
FADEValuation disagreementSão Bernardo Win
3.50
2.54
+10.8pp
80
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
66d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
2.54
Expected CLV
+10.8pp
Why
Ceara's odds have drifted significantly from 2.9 to 3.5, indicating strong market skepticism despite a positive xG differential of 1.24. The model probability (12.24%) is far below the market probability (28.57%), suggesting an overestimation of Ceara's chances. Main risk: São Bernardo's form and home advantage may not justify the market's confidence.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-07-25
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
2026-07-25
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.50
2026-07-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=64, breadth=69%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=16.7h, hist_n=446, hist_clv_rate=1%)
—
Closing
@ 2.54
3Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Victory4-0
✓ Correct
South Australia State League 1
2026-07-25
FADEValuation disagreementModbury Jets Win
3.50
1.60
+33.9pp
70
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
66d ago
3.50
→
Expected Closing
1.60
Expected CLV
+33.9pp
Why
Adelaide Victory's odds have shortened from 4.1 to 3.5, indicating strong market support. The model probability (27.5%) is close to the market probability (28.57%), but the sharp repricing suggests potential value in fading the home side. Main risk: Adelaide Victory's Elo advantage may not fully translate into a win.
