1Almeria vs Valladolid1-0
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETDraw
5.25
5.18
+0.3pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
5.18
Expected CLV
+0.3pp
Why
The draw market shows strong steam and a significant positive closing edge of 9.51 percentage points. The model probability of 28.56% is well above the market probability of 19.05%, indicating value. Main risk: Low probability outcomes like draws can be volatile.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.25
2026-05-31
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
—
Closing
@ 5.18
2Zaragoza vs Malaga0-2
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETZaragoza Win
5.00
5.21
-0.8pp
88
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
5.21
Expected CLV
-0.8pp
Why
Zaragoza has a massive positive closing edge of 24.79 percentage points and a model probability of 44.79% compared to the market's 20%. Strong steam and favorable xG/elo metrics further support the pick. Main risk: The high odds suggest the market may still undervalue Zaragoza.
Deportivo La Coruna has a positive closing edge of 4.47 percentage points and a model probability of 35.72% compared to the market's 31.25%. Strong steam and a significant elo advantage add confidence. Main risk: Odds drift suggests some market skepticism.
1Athletic Club W vs Alhama W4-1
✓ Correct
Primera División Femenina
2026-05-31
FADEAthletic Club W Win
1.12
1.17
-3.8pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
1.12
→
Expected Closing
1.17
Expected CLV
-3.8pp
Why
Strong steam on Alhama despite long odds shift from 7.0 to 8.5. Market repricing suggests sharp action against the home side. Main risk: Low market probability for the away side.
Sharp steam on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo with significant odds drop from 5.5 to 3.75. Strong intel signal and sharp repricing indicate value. Main risk: Limited historical pattern and slight elo disadvantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.75
2026-05-31
Settled
@ 3.75-3.1pp CLV
—
Closing
@ 4.24
3Almeria vs Valladolid1-0
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETDraw
5.25
5.18
+0.3pp
74
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
5.18
Expected CLV
+0.3pp
Why
Significant closing edge (9.51%) and strong steam on the draw. Market repricing aligns with model probability advantage. Main risk: Draws inherently carry higher volatility.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.25
2026-05-31
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
—
Closing
@ 5.18
4Zaragoza vs Malaga0-2
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETZaragoza Win
5.00
5.21
-0.8pp
82
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
5.21
Expected CLV
-0.8pp
Why
Massive closing edge (24.79%) and strong steam on Zaragoza. Market repricing suggests underestimation of home side's chances. Main risk: High odds indicate market skepticism.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-05-31
Candidate pick
@ 5.00
—
Closing
@ 5.21
5Racing Santander vs Cadiz4-1
✓ Correct
Segunda División
2026-05-31
FADERacing Santander Win
1.40
1.37
+1.6pp
70
⚡
▾
Entry
120d ago
1.40
→
Expected Closing
1.37
Expected CLV
+1.6pp
Why
Steam on Cadiz with odds shift from 7.0 to 8.0. Market repricing and xG advantage for the away side suggest fading the home team. Main risk: Home team has a significant elo advantage.
1Almeria vs Valladolid1-0
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETContrarianDraw
5.25
5.18
+0.3pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
5.18
Expected CLV
+0.3pp
Why
The draw odds have drifted significantly, creating a strong value opportunity with a model probability of 28.56% against a market probability of 19.05%. The closing edge is highly positive at 9.51 percentage points. Main risk: Draw outcomes are inherently volatile and less frequent.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.25
2026-05-31
Candidate pick
@ 5.25
—
Closing
@ 5.18
2AD Ceuta FC vs Albacete1-0
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
FADEValuation disagreementAlbacete Win
2.62
2.64
-0.3pp
78
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
120d ago
2.62
→
Expected Closing
2.64
Expected CLV
-0.3pp
Why
The market has overreacted to steam favoring AD Ceuta FC, despite negative model edge (-4.09 closing edge) and weaker fundamentals (elo and xG differences). Contrarian fade on Albacete is justified. Main risk: AD Ceuta FC's home advantage could still play a role.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.62
2026-05-31
Settled
@ 2.62-0.3pp CLV
—
Closing
@ 2.64
3Zaragoza vs Malaga0-2
✗ Incorrect
Segunda División
2026-05-31
BETContrarianZaragoza Win
5.00
5.21
-0.8pp
88
🔥
▾
Entry
120d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
5.21
Expected CLV
-0.8pp
Why
Zaragoza's odds have drifted sharply, creating a significant value opportunity with a model probability of 44.79% against a market probability of 20.0%. The closing edge is extremely positive at 24.79 percentage points. Main risk: Zaragoza's form and historical volatility.
