Laagri has experienced strong steam with a sharp odds drop from 4.75 to 3.2, indicating significant market support. Despite a slight negative closing edge, the market probability aligns closely with the model probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Paide.
Rizhao Yuqi has seen a sharp odds drop from 4.5 to 3.1, backed by strong steam and high breadth. Elo and xG differences favor Rizhao slightly, supporting the market move. Main risk: Model probability slightly under market probability, suggesting limited value.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-07-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=33.8h, hist_n=230, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Wuhan Three Towns II shows strong steam with odds dropping from 4.33 to 3.1. Market probability aligns closely with model probability, and closing edge is positive. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Guizhou Zhucheng.
Qingdao Red Lions has strong steam and sharp odds movement from 3.75 to 2.8. Elo difference and xG are neutral, and market probability aligns closely with model probability. Main risk: Limited historical pattern similarity for this scenario.
Ulverstone has seen a significant odds drop from 7.0 to 4.0, indicating strong market momentum. Model probability exceeds market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: High volatility in the league and significant Elo difference favoring Glenorchy Knights.
The draw shows a model edge with a closing edge of 5.95pp and a historical CLV positive rate of 52%. However, the market probability is significantly lower than the model probability, suggesting potential overestimation by the model. Additionally, the historical pattern similarity is moderate at 54.1%, which does not strongly support the model's view. Main risk: The model's edge might still materialize if the market is underestimating the draw outcome.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size52
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+38.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.22
2026-07-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=51, breadth=90%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=65.5h, hist_n=230, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-19
Candidate pick
@ 4.22
2026-07-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.22
2026-07-20
Pass
Despite a 6.34pp closing edge and a positive historical CLV rate (52%), the pattern similarity is relatively low (53.3), and the market state indicates the model leads the market. This suggests the edge may not hold. Main risk: The model's edge could materialize if the market fails to adjust.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
72d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.36
Expected CLV
+0.3pp
Why
Farul Constanta has seen significant steam with odds shortening from 4.75 to 3.4, but the model probability (12.81%) is far below the market probability (29.41%), indicating a substantial overreaction. Main risk: Farul Constanta's xG advantage of 1.4 suggests they could outperform expectations.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-07-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=44, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=60.4h, hist_n=193, hist_clv_rate=5%)
