The model missed the final outcome (Laagri win 5–2).
The model had projected Paide at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Paide Laagri ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 5-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laagri | 30.1% | 29.9% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.4% | +5.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Paide | 40.4% | 45.7% | -5.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Paide's win probability at 45.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Laagri win 5–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Paide. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Paide; match finished Laagri
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Paide by 5.3 percentage points (45.7% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Laagri 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Paide 40.5%
- xG · Laagri 1.19 — Paide 1.41
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Laagri 3.10 · Draw 3.80 · Paide 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Laagri 29.9% · Draw 24.4% · Paide 45.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Laagri 3.10 · Draw 3.80 · Paide 2.03
- Implied 1X2 · Laagri 29.9% · Draw 24.4% · Paide 45.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 19, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Laagri win · 5–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Meistriliiga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 81 | 21 | +60 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 55 |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 50 |
| 4 | Paide | 29 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 51 |
| 5 | Nõmme United | 29 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Tammeka | 29 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 29 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 |
