Weston Bears show exceptional closing edge (37.02) and strong model probability (39.46%) compared to market probability (2.44%). The sharp drift signal and significant odds movement indicate value. Main risk: The high odds reflect a low probability of success, and the market is illiquid.
2026-07-26
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.50(Candidate pick 41.00)
—
Closing
@ 9.21
2Santa Fe vs Caracas FC2-0
✗ Incorrect
CONMEBOL Sudamericana
2026-07-23
BETCaracas FC Win
9.50
9.69
-0.2pp
78
⚡
▾
Entry
68d ago
9.50
→
Expected Closing
9.69
Expected CLV
-0.2pp
Why
Caracas FC has a strong model probability (41.82%) versus market probability (10.53%), with a solid closing edge (31.29). The drift signal supports the pick. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Santa Fe, indicating potential underperformance by Caracas FC.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-07-20
Pass
Ranked 13/69 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.77). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 24/120 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-22
Pass
Ranked 37/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 72.35). Main risk: N/A.
Lokomotiv Sofia has a high closing edge (32.34) and strong model probability (47.72%) compared to market probability (15.38%). The drift signal is favorable. Main risk: Elo difference (-23.3) suggests Levski Sofia is the stronger team overall.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-07-20
Pass
Ranked 9/69 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 30/120 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.58). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-22
Pass
Ranked 26/125 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-23
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
2026-07-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.50
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 31/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 59/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.0). Main risk: N/A.
Orlando City SC has seen strong steam with a significant odds drop from 6.0 to 4.33, indicating sharp action. The model probability of 26.73% exceeds the market probability of 23.09%, providing a positive closing edge of 3.64 percentage points. Main risk: San Jose Earthquakes have home advantage and a slight ELO edge.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-07-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=120.8h, hist_n=230, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=97.0h, hist_n=229, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=42, breadth=25%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=48.6h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=54, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=24.4h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-23
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
—
Closing
@ 4.37
2FC Lugano vs Dukagjini1-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-23
BETDukagjini Win
13.00
26.17
-3.9pp
90
🔥
▾
Entry
68d ago
13.00
→
Expected Closing
26.17
Expected CLV
-3.9pp
Why
Dukagjini has experienced a massive odds drop from 21.0 to 13.0, driven by sharp steam. The model probability of 33.31% is significantly higher than the market probability of 7.69%, resulting in a huge closing edge of 25.62 percentage points. Main risk: Dukagjini's lower ELO rating compared to FC Lugano.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
2026-07-23
Candidate pick
@ 13.00
—
Closing
@ 26.17
3Albion FC vs DanubioPrimera División - Apertura
2026-07-23
BETDanubio Win
3.76
3.63
+0.9pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
68d ago
3.76
→
Expected Closing
3.63
Expected CLV
+0.9pp
Why
Danubio has experienced strong drift with odds moving from 3.13 to 3.76, but the model probability of 34.24% still exceeds the market probability of 26.6%, offering a closing edge of 7.64 percentage points. Main risk: Albion FC's potential to perform better at home.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.76
2026-07-23
Candidate pick
@ 3.76
2026-07-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.76
2026-07-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=41, breadth=67%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=64.1h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=60, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=156.7h, hist_n=446, hist_clv_rate=1%)
—
Closing
@ 3.63
4Tromso vs Hradec Králové0-1
✓ Correct
UEFA Europa League
2026-07-23
BETHradec Králové Win
6.50
7.61
-2.2pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
68d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
7.61
Expected CLV
-2.2pp
Why
Hradec Králové has seen a significant odds drift from 4.5 to 6.5, but the model probability of 34.24% is much higher than the market probability of 15.38%, providing a strong closing edge of 18.86 percentage points. Main risk: Tromso's home advantage and better ELO rating.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=55, breadth=92%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=38.9h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
68d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
1.85
Expected CLV
+29.1pp
Why
Odense's odds have drifted significantly, and the market probability (25.0%) is much higher than the model probability (16.08%), suggesting the steam on Odense is unjustified. Viborg's home advantage and superior Elo and xG metrics make them a likely favorite, but the market may have overcorrected. Main risk: Viborg's odds might still represent fair value despite the drift.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 4.00
2026-07-23
Update
@ 4.00
2026-07-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.00
2026-07-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=53, breadth=86%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=15.1h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
—
Closing
@ 1.85
2FC Luzern vs FC ThunSuper League
2026-07-23
FADEValuation disagreementFC Luzern Win
3.10
1.85
+21.8pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
68d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
1.85
Expected CLV
+21.8pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed FC Thun's odds, causing a significant drift in FC Luzern's price. The model probability for FC Thun (22.14%) is much lower than the market probability (32.26%), indicating an overreaction to the steam. Main risk: FC Luzern's slight edge in xG and Elo metrics could still make them a strong contender at home.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-07-23
Candidate pick
@ 3.10
2026-07-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.10
2026-07-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=69, breadth=85%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=40.6h, hist_n=439, hist_clv_rate=1%)
2026-07-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=64, breadth=85%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=15.2h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
