Ulverstone shows exceptional closing edge at 31.8 percentage points and a model probability of 34.24% compared to a market probability of just 2.44%. Despite low league quality, the odds provide significant value. Main risk: The team has a negative xG differential (-0.04), which could limit scoring opportunities.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
41.00
2026-07-01
Pass
Ranked 61/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 61/91 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Pass
Ranked 21/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.7). Main risk: N/A.
The draw option for Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights has a massive closing edge of 24.68 percentage points and a model probability of 29.44% versus a market probability of 4.76%. However, the steam signal is weaker, and draws are inherently volatile. Main risk: Draw outcomes are less predictable and often influenced by late-game dynamics.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
21.00
2026-07-01
Pass
Ranked 57/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 53.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 57/91 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 53.3). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=12.7h, hist_n=283, hist_clv_rate=3%)
The market has sharply repriced towards the draw, but the closing edge is negative (-1.74pp), suggesting limited value. Historical CLV is only marginally positive (52%), and the pattern similarity is moderate (60%). Main risk: The market steam could still reflect genuine sharp interest.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size76
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.20
2026-06-30
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.3h, hist_n=295, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=51.0h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=50.6h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=71, breadth=100%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=50.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-04
Candidate pick
@ 3.20
2026-07-04
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.20
2026-07-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=22, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=17.3h, hist_n=236, hist_clv_rate=4%)
—
Closing
@ 3.62
2Vancouver FC vs York United4-0
✗ Incorrect
Canadian Premier League
2026-07-04
FADEDraw
3.10
3.41
-2.9pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
87d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
3.41
Expected CLV
-2.9pp
Why
Despite sharp-led movement and a high breadth percentage (91.7%), the closing edge is negative (-2.61pp), and the model probability (29.65%) is slightly below market probability (32.26%). Historical CLV is only moderately supportive. Main risk: Potential underestimation of sharp activity.
The market has sharply repriced against Western Sydney Wanderers U23, but the model probability for the home side is significantly lower than the market probability, and the closing edge is deeply negative. This suggests the steam on the home side is overheated. Main risk: The home team could still outperform the model's expectations.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.20
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.5h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=13.1h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=55, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=12.7h, hist_n=240, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-04
Candidate pick
@ 2.20
—
Closing
@ 2.53
2Macara vs LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
2026-07-04
FADEContrarianMacara Win
2.35
3.43
-13.4pp
70
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
87d ago
2.35
→
Expected Closing
3.43
Expected CLV
-13.4pp
Why
LDU de Quito has seen steam, but the model probability for the away side is much lower than the market's, and the closing edge is highly negative. This indicates the market is overestimating the away team's chances. Main risk: LDU de Quito's xG advantage could materialize into a strong performance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.35
2026-07-04
Candidate pick
@ 2.35
2026-07-04
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.35
2026-07-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=62, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=16.8h, hist_n=588, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Melbourne City II has experienced significant steam, but the model probability is lower than the market's, and the closing edge is negative. The large ELO disadvantage for Melbourne City II further supports fading the home side. Main risk: The away team may still perform well despite the ELO gap.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.30
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 2.35
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.35
2026-07-02
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 75.28). Main risk: N/A.
