Uzbekistan offers significant value with a model probability of 46.76% compared to a market probability of 11.76%, resulting in a strong closing edge of 35.0. The xG difference of 0.5 further supports their competitiveness. Main risk: Uzbekistan's lower ELO rating and potential market mispricing.
1Metta / LU vs Super Nova 27-3
✗ Incorrect
1. Liga
2026-06-13
BETSuper Nova 2 Win
11.00
12.17
-0.9pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
11.00
→
Expected Closing
12.17
Expected CLV
-0.9pp
Why
Super Nova 2 has seen significant steam with odds moving from 6.0 to 11.0, indicating strong contrarian value. The model probability of 34.24% far exceeds the market probability of 9.09%. Main risk: High volatility and limited historical data.
Canberra White Eagles show a massive closing edge of 26.29 percentage points, with the model probability of 30.14% dwarfing the market probability of 3.85%. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest a low baseline probability of success.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
26.00
2026-06-13
Candidate pick
@ 26.00
—
Closing
@ 27.58
3Jaro 2 vs JS HerculesKakkonen - Lohko C
2026-06-13
BETJS Hercules Win
7.50
6.66
+1.7pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
7.50
→
Expected Closing
6.66
Expected CLV
+1.7pp
Why
JS Hercules has strong steam and a closing edge of 17.25 percentage points. The model probability of 30.58% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: Limited historical data to confirm the edge.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
2026-06-13
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
2026-06-13
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.50
2026-06-14
Pass
Ranked 12/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 100.1). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 6.66
4Hurstville FC vs Mt Druitt Town1-1
✗ Incorrect
New South Wales NPL 2
2026-06-13
BETMt Druitt Town Win
4.33
3.61
+4.6pp
77
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
107d ago
4.33
→
Expected Closing
3.61
Expected CLV
+4.6pp
Why
Mt Druitt Town shows a strong closing edge of 14.45 percentage points, with the model probability of 37.54% well above the market probability of 23.09%. Main risk: Limited sample size in historical patterns.
AO Itabaiana's odds drift suggests market skepticism despite a slight model edge. Elo and xG differences are unfavorable. Main risk: Potential underestimation of home advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-06-13
Candidate pick
@ 3.10
2026-06-13
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.10
2026-06-14
Pass
Ranked 20/46 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 95.88). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
107d ago
2.70
→
Expected Closing
1.79
Expected CLV
+18.8pp
Why
Charlestown City Blues have seen significant market steam with odds dropping sharply from 4.0 to 2.7. However, the model probability of 29.25% is well below the market's 37.04%, indicating an overreaction. Main risk: Lambton Jaffas' superior Elo and xG metrics suggest they are the stronger team.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-06-13
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
2026-06-13
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.70
2026-06-14
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/4, pre-LLM score 60.33). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 1.79
2Rosengård W vs Norrköping W1-1
✗ Incorrect
Damallsvenskan
2026-06-13
FADEValuation disagreementRosengård W Win
2.90
1.86
+19.3pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
107d ago
2.90
→
Expected Closing
1.86
Expected CLV
+19.3pp
Why
Norrköping W's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability of 22.89% is far below the market's 34.48%. This suggests the market has overreacted to steam on the away side. Main risk: Rosengård W's strong Elo and home advantage.
Langwarrin's odds have shortened due to strong steam, but the model probability of 39.46% is slightly below the market's 42.55%. This indicates limited value on the home side, making the away fade a contrarian play. Main risk: Langwarrin's slight Elo and xG advantages.
