1Bischofshofen vs Schwaz4-3
✗ Incorrect
Regionalliga - West
2026-06-04
BETSchwaz Win
3.40
3.41
-0.1pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
117d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.41
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Strong steam movement in favor of Schwaz with a significant drop in odds from 4.75 to 3.4, indicating sharp action. The model probability (33.81%) exceeds the market probability (29.41%), providing a positive closing edge of 4.4 percentage points. Despite the negative Elo differential, the xG difference is slightly favorable, and the low volatility reduces risk. Main risk: Limited historical pattern data and potential overreaction to steam.
1Bischofshofen vs Schwaz4-3
✓ Correct
Regionalliga - West
2026-06-04
FADEBischofshofen Win
3.40
1.78
+26.8pp
68
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
117d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
1.78
Expected CLV
+26.8pp
Why
Strong steam movement and sharp repricing favoring the away side, with a significant odds drop from 4.75 to 3.4. Market probability aligns closely with model probability, suggesting value in opposing the home side. Main risk: Limited historical pattern data and small xG differential.
1Bischofshofen vs Schwaz4-3
✗ Incorrect
Regionalliga - West
2026-06-04
BETSchwaz Win
3.40
3.41
-0.1pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
117d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.41
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Strong steam signal with sharp repricing and significant odds movement (-28.4%). Market probability aligns closely with model probability, suggesting value. Elo and xG differences are minimal, but the sharp market move indicates momentum. Main risk: Limited historical data and negative Elo differential.
1Bischofshofen vs Schwaz4-3
✓ Correct
Regionalliga - West
2026-06-04
FADEValuation disagreementBischofshofen Win
3.40
1.78
+26.8pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
117d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
1.78
Expected CLV
+26.8pp
Why
Strong steam on Schwaz despite negative elo differential and limited historical data. Market overreacting to sharp repricing. Main risk: Schwaz's slight xG edge and recent steam momentum.