FC Miami City shows strong steam signals with a high steam score of 96 and significant market movement (+27.4%). The model probability of 37.54% is notably higher than the market probability of 23.09%, indicating value. Main risk: The sharp repricing suggests market skepticism about the home side's chances, reflected in the drift in odds.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-07-05
Pass
Ranked 5/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-06
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.33
2026-07-08
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/68, pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-09
Pass
Ranked 5/57 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
—
Closing
@ 4.14
2Talleres Remedios vs Flandria1-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera B Metropolitana
2026-07-10
FADEFlandria Win
6.50
5.66
+2.3pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
81d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
5.66
Expected CLV
+2.3pp
Why
Flandria has a strong steam score of 94 and significant closing edge (+20.26), but the negative move percentage (-31.6%) indicates potential overreaction to market activity. Elo and xG metrics are slightly unfavorable, suggesting caution. Main risk: The negative move percentage could indicate market skepticism about Flandria's chances.
KFUM Oslo has a massive closing edge (+32.65) and a model probability of 50.04%, which is significantly higher than the market probability of 17.39%. Despite a low steam score (61), the xG difference (+0.59) and favorable Elo difference (+101.1) support the bet. Main risk: The low steam score and slight odds contraction suggest limited market enthusiasm.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.75
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 5.75
2026-07-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.75
2026-07-11
Pass
Ranked 31/114 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-12
Pass
Ranked 6/96 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.17). Main risk: N/A.
1Zlin vs Dukla Banská Bystrica2-1
✗ Incorrect
Friendlies Clubs
2026-07-10
BETDukla Banská Bystrica Win
3.30
3.79
-3.9pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
81d ago
3.30
→
Expected Closing
3.79
Expected CLV
-3.9pp
Why
Dukla Banská Bystrica has experienced a significant odds drop from 7.5 to 3.3, indicating strong market confidence. The sharp steam and high breadth percentage suggest a strong momentum play. Main risk: The team has a lower ELO and minimal xG advantage, indicating potential overreaction.
Gimhae City shows strong steam with a positive closing edge of 11.9 percentage points and favorable model probability. Despite a significant ELO disadvantage, the market move suggests value. Main risk: The odds drift upward could indicate some market skepticism.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.90
2026-07-09
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 5/33, pre-LLM score 103.53). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 3.90
—
Closing
@ 4.27
3Talleres Remedios vs Flandria1-1
✗ Incorrect
Primera B Metropolitana
2026-07-10
BETFlandria Win
6.50
5.66
+2.3pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
81d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
5.66
Expected CLV
+2.3pp
Why
Flandria has seen a sharp odds drop from 9.5 to 6.5, with a high closing edge of 20.26 percentage points. This suggests strong market support despite the ELO disadvantage. Main risk: The team is still a significant underdog, and the market move could be speculative.
FC Miami City has a strong closing edge of 14.45 percentage points and favorable model probability. The odds movement reflects sharp steam, indicating value. Main risk: Lack of historical pattern similarity could mean the move is less reliable.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-07-05
Pass
Ranked 12/42 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.53). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-06
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Update
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.33
2026-07-08
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/24, pre-LLM score 103.53). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-09
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 4/33, pre-LLM score 103.53). Main risk: N/A.
Dandenong City shows strong steam with a positive closing edge and favorable model probability. The odds movement suggests market confidence. Main risk: The ELO difference is minimal, and the market move could be overstated.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.80
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=51, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=32.5h, hist_n=250, hist_clv_rate=4%)
The historical pattern indicates a positive CLV rate of 52%, with a pattern similarity of 57.1%. The market is undergoing sharp repricing, suggesting that the odds are adjusting to reflect the true probabilities. The closing edge is 4.44pp, which is within the acceptable range for a bet. Main risk: The elo and xG differences slightly favor Olympic, which could reduce the likelihood of a draw.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size63
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+28.1%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 4.00
2026-07-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.00
2026-07-11
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=57, breadth=73%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=27.8h, hist_n=249, hist_clv_rate=4%)
The historical pattern supports a positive CLV rate of 52%, with a pattern similarity of 54.3%. The market is in sharp repricing mode, and the closing edge is 5.84pp, which is within the acceptable range. The elo and xG differences are minimal, supporting the possibility of a draw. Main risk: The sharp-led market movement could indicate insider information favoring a non-draw outcome.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size63
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+28.1%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.20
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=19, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=42.0h, hist_n=250, hist_clv_rate=4%)
The market has moved sharply against the draw, with a negative closing edge of -4.84pp. This suggests that the current odds may be overreacting to sharp money. The historical pattern has a lower pattern similarity of 45.0%, reducing confidence in a draw outcome. Main risk: The sharp-led movement could still reflect accurate insider information, making the fade risky.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size63
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+28.1%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.90
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=99, breadth=100%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=90.0h, hist_n=538, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 2.90
2026-07-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.90
2026-07-11
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=58, breadth=54%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=42.0h, hist_n=249, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=85%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=18.0h, hist_n=528, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Burnley has seen significant steam but the model probability (32.85%) is far below the market probability (45.45%), indicating overreaction. Main risk: Burnley could outperform due to their higher league quality.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.20
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 2.20
—
Closing
@ 3.04
2SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian ZhixingSuper League
2026-07-10
FADEValuation disagreementSHANGHAI SIPG Win
3.40
1.44
+40.0pp
68
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
81d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
1.44
Expected CLV
+40.0pp
Why
Dalian Zhixing's odds have shortened significantly despite a very low model probability (5.74%) compared to the market (29.41%). This suggests a sharp overreaction. Main risk: Dalian Zhixing could capitalize on volatility in the Super League.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.40
2026-07-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=43, breadth=60%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=106.3h, hist_n=226, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Candidate pick
@ 3.40
2026-07-10
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.40
2026-07-11
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=70, breadth=93%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=34.4h, hist_n=536, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=70, breadth=93%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=10.3h, hist_n=528, hist_clv_rate=2%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
81d ago
2.40
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+6.6pp
Why
Maribor's odds have drifted despite strong steam, but the model probability (30.58%) is still well below the market (41.67%). This indicates an inflated market price. Main risk: Charlton's form could justify the market's confidence.
