Portland Timbers show strong model value with a probability of 64.41% against market probability of 42.55%. The xG difference is highly favorable at 1.34, and the match volatility is low. Main risk: Limited steam activity and market tracking signal.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.35
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 15/120 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 2.35
2026-07-22
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.35
2026-07-26
Pass
Ranked 26/133 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.33). Main risk: N/A.
Juan Pablo II College has significant closing edge (32.0) and strong model probability (60.57%) compared to market probability (28.57%). The xG difference of 1.07 further supports the pick. Main risk: Elo difference is unfavorable, suggesting potential underperformance.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.50
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 3.50
2026-07-22
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.50
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 21/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/171, pre-LLM score 94.26). Main risk: N/A.
IF Brommapojkarna shows strong model probability (43.02%) against market probability (15.38%) and has a favorable xG difference of 0.24. Closing edge is high at 27.64. Main risk: Elo difference is neutral, indicating a tight matchup.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 6.50
2026-07-22
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.50
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 33/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 38/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.68). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-26
Pass
Ranked 33/133 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.2). Main risk: N/A.
Blackburn's odds have dropped sharply by 44.6%, and there's a strong closing edge of 7.39 percentage points. The market is heavily favoring them despite being underdogs, suggesting strong momentum. Main risk: High volatility and Nottingham Forest's Elo advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
—
Closing
@ 4.37
2Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC2-2
✗ Incorrect
Major League Soccer
2026-07-22
BETAtlanta United FC Win
3.90
3.56
+2.5pp
72
🔥
▾
Entry
69d ago
3.90
→
Expected Closing
3.56
Expected CLV
+2.5pp
Why
Atlanta United FC has seen a notable odds drop of 17.9% and a positive closing edge of 4.83 percentage points. The market is showing strong support for the away side. Main risk: Relatively low historical pattern similarity.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.90
2026-07-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=118.5h, hist_n=230, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=62, breadth=90%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=70.4h, hist_n=450, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 6/21 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 3.90
—
Closing
@ 3.56
3HJK Helsinki vs Coleraine FCUEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-22
BETColeraine FC Win
5.50
8.75
-6.8pp
80
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
69d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
8.75
Expected CLV
-6.8pp
Why
Coleraine FC has seen strong market steam with a 21.4% odds drop and a significant closing edge of 16.99 percentage points. The market is signaling value on the away side. Main risk: HJK Helsinki's home advantage and slightly better Elo rating.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 18/21 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.85). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-22
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
2026-07-22
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.50
2026-07-23
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=64, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=14.3h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
Cienciano has experienced a 52% odds drift, leading to a massive closing edge of 26.84 percentage points. This suggests significant value despite being a longshot. Main risk: Lanus's stronger Elo and xG metrics.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-07-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=41, breadth=25%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=70.7h, hist_n=179, hist_clv_rate=5%)
1U. Catolica vs D. La SerenaPrimera División
2026-07-22
FADEValuation disagreementU. Catolica Win
5.50
1.43
+51.8pp
65
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
69d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
1.43
Expected CLV
+51.8pp
Why
D. La Serena's odds have shortened dramatically, but the model probability remains far below the market's. This suggests a likely overcorrection. Main risk: U. Catolica's potential underperformance or squad rotation could align with the steam.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-07-21
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
2026-07-22
Update
@ 5.50
2026-07-22
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.50
2026-07-23
Pass
Although D. La Serena's odds have shortened significantly, the model probability (11.29%) is still much lower than the market probability (17.39%). The sharp-led movement suggests some insider confidence, but the large Elo and xG disadvantage for D. La Serena makes this a high-risk scenario. Main risk: The sharp movement could indicate hidden value, but the metrics do not support a bet or fade.
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 5/6 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 58.68). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 14/18 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 55.36). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 1.43
2Bologna vs 1. FC Heidenheim1-1
✗ Incorrect
Friendlies Clubs
2026-07-22
FADEValuation disagreementBologna Win
2.55
2.03
+10.1pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
69d ago
2.55
→
Expected Closing
2.03
Expected CLV
+10.1pp
Why
1. FC Heidenheim has seen strong steam, with odds dropping significantly. However, the model probability is still below the market's, suggesting an overreaction. Main risk: Heidenheim's recent form or lineup changes could validate the market move.
