Lincoln Red Imps FC has seen a sharp steam move with a significant odds drop from 7.0 to 5.25, indicating strong market confidence. The closing edge is substantial at 13.34 percentage points, and the model probability of 32.39% exceeds the market probability of 19.05%. Main risk: The team has a slight xG disadvantage and lower historical performance reliability.
Start has experienced a sharp odds drop from 6.5 to 5.0, with a massive closing edge of 36.16 percentage points. The model probability of 56.16% far exceeds the market probability of 20.0%. Main risk: Start has a slight Elo disadvantage against Viking.
Puebla's odds have drifted upward from 3.6 to 4.5, creating a strong value opportunity with a closing edge of 16.37 percentage points. The model probability of 38.59% is significantly higher than the market probability of 22.22%. Main risk: Elo and xG differences are marginally against Puebla.
Baník Ostrava has seen a notable odds drift from 4.09 to 5.06, with a strong closing edge of 23.17 percentage points. The model probability of 42.93% is much higher than the market probability of 19.76%. Main risk: Baník Ostrava has a significant Elo disadvantage against Slavia Praha.
Sydney Olympic's odds have drifted from 4.75 to 5.5, presenting a closing edge of 20.31 percentage points. The model probability of 38.49% is more than double the market probability of 18.18%. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics slightly favor Brisbane Roar.
1Slovan Liberec vs Teplice0-1
✗ Incorrect
Czech Liga
2026-07-28
FADEValuation disagreementSlovan Liberec Win
5.22
1.71
+39.3pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
62d ago
5.22
→
Expected Closing
1.71
Expected CLV
+39.3pp
Why
The market is heavily steaming Teplice, but the model probability for Teplice is significantly lower than the market probability, indicating an overreaction. Historical patterns and drift repricing suggest fading the steam is prudent. Main risk: Teplice could outperform expectations given the strong drift signal.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
62d ago
2.88
→
Expected Closing
1.95
Expected CLV
+16.6pp
Why
Belmont Swansea's odds have drifted, and the market probability exceeds the model probability, showing potential overconfidence in the home side. Historical CLV patterns support fading the steam. Main risk: Belmont Swansea's Elo disadvantage could lead to underperformance.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.88
2026-07-11
Pass
Ranked 9/14 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 60.01). Main risk: N/A.
