D. La Serena has seen significant sharp steam with a 31.2% odds drop and a high steam score of 95. Despite a negative closing edge, the market repricing and strong steam suggest value. Main risk: The team has a negative Elo difference and a lower model probability compared to the market.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-07-21
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
2026-07-21
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.50
2026-07-22
Pass
Ranked 22/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.83). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 23/35 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.83). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 15/50 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.08). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 68/96 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.93). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 7.03
2Larne vs FK Crvena Zvezda0-4
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-21
BETLarne Win
11.00
17.69
-3.4pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
70d ago
11.00
→
Expected Closing
17.69
Expected CLV
-3.4pp
Why
Larne has experienced sharp steam with a 26.7% odds drop and a strong steam score of 92. The model probability of 30.14% is significantly higher than the market probability of 9.09%, indicating value. Main risk: Large Elo and xG disadvantage for Larne.
Orgryte IS has strong drift momentum with a 30.4% odds increase and a closing edge of 23.73. The model probability of 37.06% is significantly higher than the market probability of 13.33%. Main risk: The Elo and xG differences are not strongly in Orgryte's favor.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
2026-07-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=135.5h, hist_n=229, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-20
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 5/15, pre-LLM score 88.53). Main risk: N/A.
4Mjallby AIF vs Lincoln Red Imps FC3-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-21
BETLincoln Red Imps FC Win
12.00
19.82
-3.3pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
70d ago
12.00
→
Expected Closing
19.82
Expected CLV
-3.3pp
Why
Lincoln Red Imps FC shows strong drift momentum with a 26.3% odds increase and a closing edge of 22.25. The model probability of 30.58% is significantly higher than the market probability of 8.33%. Main risk: Significant Elo disadvantage for Lincoln Red Imps FC.
PAU has strong drift momentum with a 33.3% odds increase and a closing edge of 19.44. The model probability of 31.94% is significantly higher than the market probability of 12.5%. Main risk: Elo and xG differences slightly favor Espanyol.
