Tunisia has an enormous model-market probability gap (41.39% vs. 4.35%) and the highest closing edge (37.04pp) in the dataset. Strong steam and sharp repricing support this bet. Main risk: Netherlands' significant Elo advantage.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
11.00
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 39/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
Pass
Ranked 62/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 8/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 23.00(Candidate pick 11.00)
2026-06-24
Pass
Ranked 8/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
Candidate pick
@ 26.00
—
Closing
@ 28.50
2New Zealand vs Belgium1-5
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-23
BETNew Zealand Win
13.00
14.00
-0.6pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
98d ago
13.00
→
Expected Closing
14.00
Expected CLV
-0.6pp
Why
New Zealand shows a massive model-market probability gap (41.39% vs. 7.69%) and a strong closing edge of 33.7pp. The market is sharply repricing with strong steam, suggesting undervaluation. Main risk: Belgium's superior quality and historical strength.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 82/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
Pass
Ranked 59/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
Pass
Ranked 6/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 15.00(Candidate pick 13.00)
—
Closing
@ 14.00
3Scotland vs Brazil0-3
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-23
BETScotland Win
8.00
10.50
-3.0pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
98d ago
8.00
→
Expected Closing
10.50
Expected CLV
-3.0pp
Why
Scotland's model probability (41.93%) far exceeds the market's (12.5%), with a strong closing edge of 29.43pp. Steam and sharp repricing indicate value. Main risk: Brazil's overwhelming Elo and historical dominance.
McKinney Chupacabras have seen significant market steam, but the model probability (27.07%) is far below the market's (41.67%), indicating an overheated market. The closing edge is deeply negative (-14.6), suggesting poor value. Main risk: Denton Diablos' form or injuries could be underestimated.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.40
2026-06-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=23.5h)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
98d ago
2.41
→
Expected Closing
2.87
Expected CLV
-6.7pp
Why
IBV Vestmannaeyjar's odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability (33.77%) is still below the market's (41.49%). The negative closing edge (-7.72) implies the steam may not be justified. Main risk: FH hafnarfjordur's inconsistency could make the away side more appealing than the model suggests.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.41
2026-06-23
Candidate pick
@ 2.41
2026-06-23
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.41
2026-06-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=57, breadth=100%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=111.8h)
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=39.8h)
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=32.1h, hist_n=264, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-06-28
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=59, breadth=54%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=15.8h, hist_n=263, hist_clv_rate=4%)
—
Closing
@ 2.87
3Algeria vs AustriaWorld Cup
2026-06-23
FADEContrarianDraw
2.75
2.07
+11.9pp
65
⚡
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
98d ago
2.75
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+11.9pp
Why
The draw has been heavily steamed, but the model probability (30.07%) is significantly below the market's (36.36%). The closing edge is negative (-6.29), indicating poor value. Main risk: A balanced match could result in a draw despite the market overreaction.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.75
2026-06-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=51, breadth=85%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=66, breadth=85%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=145.0h)
