South East Utd. has a significant closing edge of 27.57% and strong steam indicators. The model probability of 34.24% far exceeds the market probability of 6.67%. Main risk: Low league quality and limited historical data.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
15.00
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 15.00
—
Closing
@ 15.01
2Germany vs Curaçao7-1
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-14
BETCuraçao Win
29.00
43.50
-1.1pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
29.00
→
Expected Closing
43.50
Expected CLV
-1.1pp
Why
Curaçao offers a massive closing edge of 29.14% and a model probability of 32.59% compared to a market probability of just 3.45%. Odds have shortened significantly, indicating sharp interest. Main risk: Extremely low implied probability and potential overreaction to steam.
Saudi Arabia shows a closing edge of 23.57% with a model probability of 36.9% against a market probability of 13.33%. Steam and sharp-led signals support the value. Main risk: Moderate elo advantage for Uruguay and potential underestimation of their strength.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.50
2026-06-09
Pass
Ranked 11/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 45.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
Pass
Ranked 4/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.5). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-11
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
2026-06-12
Update
@ 7.50
2026-06-12
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.50
2026-06-13
Pass
Ranked 21/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.97). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 7.50
2026-06-14
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.50
2026-06-15
Pass
Ranked 27/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 47.54). Main risk: N/A.
1Floresta vs Figueirense1-2
✓ Correct
Serie C
2026-06-14
BETFigueirense Win
4.10
3.74
+2.4pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
4.10
→
Expected Closing
3.74
Expected CLV
+2.4pp
Why
Figueirense's odds have drifted significantly, creating a strong closing edge of 11.72 percentage points. Despite a negative Elo difference, the model probability of 36.11% is well above the market probability of 24.39%. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics slightly favor Floresta.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.10
2026-06-13
Pass
Ranked 7/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 103.83). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 4.10
—
Closing
@ 3.74
2Canada vs QatarWorld Cup
2026-06-14
BETQatar Win
13.00
11.25
+1.2pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
13.00
→
Expected Closing
11.25
Expected CLV
+1.2pp
Why
Qatar's odds have ballooned, offering a massive closing edge of 16.65 percentage points. The model probability of 24.34% is far higher than the market's 7.69%. Main risk: Qatar's Elo and xG metrics are weaker compared to Canada.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
2026-06-11
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=48, breadth=83%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=189.0h)
2026-06-12
Pass
Qatar's odds movement suggests steam, but the extreme elo difference and low market probability make this a high-risk bet. Main risk: Canada's superior metrics and lack of historical support for Qatar.
2026-06-13
Pass
Ranked 16/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 13.00
2026-06-14
Withdrawn before validation
@ 13.00
2026-06-15
Pass
Ranked 6/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 93.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-16
Pass
Ranked 8/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 93.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-17
Pass
Ranked 21/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.34). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 23/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 91.34). Main risk: N/A.
Gimnasia Concepción shows a strong closing edge of 18.56 percentage points, and the model probability of 32.85% is much higher than the market's 14.29%. Main risk: Limited historical data to validate this sharp move.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.00
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 7.00
—
Closing
@ 6.84
4Rio Branco ES vs Porto BA4-0
✗ Incorrect
Serie D
2026-06-14
BETPorto BA Win
7.00
8.11
-2.0pp
68
🔥
▾
Entry
107d ago
7.00
→
Expected Closing
8.11
Expected CLV
-2.0pp
Why
Porto BA's odds have drifted significantly, creating a closing edge of 14.52 percentage points. The model probability of 28.81% is double the market's 14.29%. Main risk: Elo and xG metrics are nearly neutral, offering little support.
South East Utd.'s odds have drifted significantly, but the model probability of 34.24% seems overly optimistic given their weak xG metrics. Main risk: Market may be underestimating South East Utd.'s potential.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
107d ago
2.70
→
Expected Closing
2.60
Expected CLV
+1.4pp
Why
Hubei Chufeng Heli has seen a sharp odds drift, indicating strong steam against them. However, the model probability (28.81%) is significantly below the market probability (37.04%), suggesting the market may be overreacting. Main risk: Shenzhen 2028's superior Elo and xG metrics could justify the market move.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-06-14
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
—
Closing
@ 2.60
2AO Itabaiana vs Ituano2-2
✗ Incorrect
Serie C
2026-06-14
FADEValuation disagreementAO Itabaiana Win
2.40
2.56
-2.6pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
107d ago
2.40
→
Expected Closing
2.56
Expected CLV
-2.6pp
Why
Ituano's odds have shortened significantly, driven by strong steam. However, the model probability (32.39%) is well below the market probability (41.67%), indicating potential overpricing. Main risk: Ituano's slight xG advantage and market sentiment could align with their improving form.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.40
2026-06-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=96, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=42.5h)
