Predictions / Football / Brazil. Serie C / Floresta vs Figueirense

Prediction Audit: Floresta vs Figueirense Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Floresta Floresta
Jun 14, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Figueirense Figueirense

AI correctly predicted the Figueirense win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Figueirense Figueirense ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Figueirense considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Figueirense +11.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Floresta 34.2% 42.9% -8.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 32.6% -3.0 pp Aligned
Figueirense 36.1% 24.5% +11.6 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Figueirense's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Figueirense win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Figueirense.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Figueirense more conservatively (24.5% vs model 36.1%, 11.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Figueirense win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 14, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Floresta 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Figueirense 36.1%
    • xG · Floresta 1.28 — Figueirense 1.32
  2. Jun 14, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Floresta 2.14 · Draw 2.81 · Figueirense 3.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Floresta 42.9% · Draw 32.6% · Figueirense 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 14, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Floresta 2.14 · Draw 2.81 · Figueirense 3.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Floresta 42.9% · Draw 32.6% · Figueirense 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 14, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Figueirense win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 23:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1517909

Closing Odds 3.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Figueirense win · Floresta 1–2 Figueirense
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie C
  • Fixture: Floresta vs Figueirense
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-14 22:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Floresta 1.28 — Figueirense 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 39.7% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +36.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C Serie C — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 32
3 Ferroviária 19 8 6 5 30
4 Maringá 19 8 6 5 30
5 Floresta 19 8 6 5 30
6 Inter De Limeira 19 8 6 5 30
7 Paysandu 19 9 2 8 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 29
9 Ypiranga-RS 19 8 5 6 29
10 Guarani Campinas 19 7 7 5 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 28
12 Maranhão 19 7 6 6 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 26
14 Caxias 19 6 7 6 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 21
17 Barra 19 5 6 8 21
18 Anápolis 19 5 4 10 19
19 AO Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 17
20 Confiança 19 3 4 12 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Guarani Campinas 19 34 24 +10 28
2 Maringá 19 32 30 +2 30
3 Botafogo PB 19 28 19 +9 33
4 Brusque 19 28 22 +6 32
5 Ypiranga-RS 19 27 24 +3 29
6 Paysandu 19 26 27 -1 29
7 Ferroviária 19 22 15 +7 30
8 Floresta 19 22 20 +2 30
9 Inter De Limeira 19 22 20 +2 30
10 Barra 19 21 21 0 21
11 Amazonas 19 21 23 -2 26
12 Santa Cruz 19 20 15 +5 29
13 Maranhão 19 19 18 +1 27
14 Figueirense 19 19 22 -3 28
15 Ituano 19 18 21 -3 22
16 Caxias 19 17 16 +1 25
17 Anápolis 19 17 22 -5 19
18 AO Itabaiana 19 14 27 -13 17
19 Volta Redonda 19 13 25 -12 21
20 Confiança 19 11 20 -9 13
Serie C Brazil. Serie C Predictions