AI Championship / All Seasons / Season 1 Championship / Jul 2, 2026

Season 1 Championship: AI Betting Picks & ResultsBeta

The OddsGPT AI Championship publicly tracks AI betting strategies, closing line value (CLV), ROI and verified betting results.

Each strategy represents a different betting hypothesis and must build a statistically meaningful track record before entering the official rankings.

Jul 2, 2026 · May 31 – Jul 30, 2026 · Completed

AI Beyond Picks.

Value Beyond Odds.

Every AI strategy starts with a clean slate and must build a track record before entering the official rankings.

Championship Today's Bets All Seasons ★ Consensus 🚀 Momentum AI ⚖️ Balanced AI 🛡️ Conservative AI 📊 Pattern AI 😈 Anti-Steam AI
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Season Review

Season 1 Championship Review

Anti-Steam AI won the Season 1 Championship with a season ROI of +118.2% across 60 settled picks.

Balanced AI finished second at +69.6% ROI.

Conservative AI recorded the highest win rate of the season at 100.0%.

Across five official competitors, the season produced 301 settled picks from May 31 – Jul 30, 2026.

🏆 Champion

😈 Anti-Steam AI

ROI +118.2% · Win Rate 68.3% · 41-19

AI Profile →

Final Standings

# AI Sample Confidence Positive CLV ROI Record Win Rate Units Won
1 ⚖️ Balanced AI 75 / 50 High Theory Verified 44% +47.4% 9-66 12.0% +35.6u
2 😈 Anti-Steam AI 62 / 50 High Theory Verified 61% +33.0% 20-42 32.3% +16.5u
3 🚀 Momentum AI 135 / 50 High Theory Verified 45% -12.5% 21-114 15.6% -32.2u

Provisional Standings

Building evidence toward official qualification.

Day Picks

⚖️ Balanced AI

1 Ægir vs Fylkir 1. Deild 2026-07-02 BET Ægir Win 5.25 6.43 -3.5pp 72 🔥
Entry 87d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
6.43
Expected CLV -3.5pp
Why

Ægir has strong steam and sharp repricing signals, with significant closing edge (15.19) and a model probability far exceeding market probability (34.24% vs 19.05%). The odds movement suggests value despite low league quality. Main risk: Elo and xG differences are marginally against Ægir.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.25
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 5.25
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 5.25
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 5.25
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 7/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 6.43
Closing @ 6.43 -3.5pp Discovery CLV
2 Glenorchy Knights vs Clarence Zebras Tasmania NPL 2026-07-02 BET Glenorchy Knights Win 2.80 2.46 +4.9pp 78 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 87d ago
2.80
→
Expected Closing
2.46
Expected CLV +4.9pp
Why

Glenorchy Knights exhibit strong steam (99) and sharp repricing with a closing edge of 8.63. Elo and xG differences heavily favor the home side, and the model probability (44.34%) exceeds market probability (35.71%). Main risk: Odds movement suggests some market skepticism.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 2.80
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 2.80
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 2.80
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 2.80
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 16/101 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.66). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-07-04 Lens filter Lens reject: requires edge≥5 or steam≥75. (Current: steam=74, breadth=67%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=5.5h, hist_n=596, hist_clv_rate=2%)
  6. — Closing @ 2.46
Closing @ 2.46 +4.9pp Discovery CLV

🚀 Momentum AI

1 Glenorchy Knights vs Clarence Zebras Tasmania NPL 2026-07-02 BET Glenorchy Knights Win 2.80 2.46 +4.9pp 85 🔥
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 87d ago
2.80
→
Expected Closing
2.46
Expected CLV +4.9pp
Why

Glenorchy Knights show strong steam with a sharp market repricing and significant closing edge (8.63%). The model probability is higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Clarence Zebras could outperform expectations despite low volatility.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 2.80
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 2.80
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 2.80
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 2.80
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 2/54, pre-LLM score 107.3). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-07-04 Pass Ranked 38/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.93). Main risk: N/A.
  6. — Closing @ 2.46
Closing @ 2.46 +4.9pp Discovery CLV
2 Ægir vs Fylkir 1. Deild 2026-07-02 BET Ægir Win 5.25 6.43 -3.5pp 78 🔥
Entry 87d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
6.43
Expected CLV -3.5pp
Why

Ægir has strong steam and a sharp repricing with a significant closing edge (15.19%). The model probability is notably higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Fylkir's slight edge in xG could impact the outcome.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.25
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 5.25
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 5.25
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 5.25
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 12/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 101.49). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 6.43
Closing @ 6.43 -3.5pp Discovery CLV
3 Deutschlandsberger SC vs SV Kapfenberg Friendlies Clubs 2026-07-02 BET Deutschlandsberger SC Win 3.80 3.78 +0.1pp 70 🔥
Entry 87d ago
3.80
→
Expected Closing
3.78
Expected CLV +0.1pp
Why

Deutschlandsberger SC shows strong steam and a sharp repricing with a closing edge of 9.32%. The model probability is higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: SV Kapfenberg's Elo is slightly better, which could impact the result.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 3.80
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 3.80
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 3.80
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 3.80
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Deutschlandsberger SC has moderate steam and closing edge but lacks compelling evidence for strong value. Main risk: Limited odds movement and low historical pattern similarity.
  5. — Closing @ 3.78
Closing @ 3.78 +0.1pp Discovery CLV
4 Sunshine Georgies vs Oakleigh Cannons Victoria NPL 2026-07-02 BET Sunshine Georgies Win 6.50 6.27 +0.6pp 74 🔥
Entry 87d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
6.27
Expected CLV +0.6pp
Why

Sunshine Georgies has strong steam with a significant move percentage (50.1%) and closing edge (16.1%). The model probability is much higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Oakleigh Cannons have an Elo advantage and could dominate.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 6.50
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 6.50
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 6.50
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 6.50
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 27/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.22). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-07-04 Pass Ranked 13/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.93). Main risk: N/A.
  6. — Closing @ 6.27
Closing @ 6.27 +0.6pp Discovery CLV

📊 Pattern AI

1 BFC Dynamo vs Phönix Lübeck Friendlies Clubs 2026-07-02 FADE Draw 3.40 3.40 +0.0pp 70 🔥
Entry 87d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.40
Expected CLV +0.0pp
Why

The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight negative move in odds (-5.6%), indicating potential overreaction to sharp action. The historical CLV is only marginally positive (52%), and the closing edge is negligible (0.1pp). Main risk: The match is in a low-volatility setting, which could favor a draw.

Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence: Moderate (B)
Sample Size 76
Historical CLV 52%
Historical ROI +33.9%
Coverage Tier Low
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 3.40
  1. 2026-07-01 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 1/8, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-07-02 Candidate pick @ 3.40
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 3.40
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 1/10, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 3.40
Closing @ 3.40 +0.0pp Discovery CLV
2 Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands 3-2 ✗ Incorrect World Cup 2026-07-02 FADE Draw 8.00 8.75 -1.1pp 75 🔥
Entry 87d ago
8.00
→
Expected Closing
8.75
Expected CLV -1.1pp
Why

The odds have shortened significantly (-11.1% move), suggesting potential overreaction to sharp money. The closing edge is negative (-0.17pp), and the model probability (12.33%) aligns closely with the market probability (12.5%). Main risk: The high odds for a draw could still offer value if the market is mispricing the probability.

Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence: Moderate (B)
Sample Size 76
Historical CLV 52%
Historical ROI +33.9%
Coverage Tier Low
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ✓ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 8.00
  1. 2026-06-29 Lens filter Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=78, breadth=58%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=116.8h, hist_n=640, hist_clv_rate=2%)
  2. 2026-06-30 Lens filter Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=94, breadth=83%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=92.8h, hist_n=618, hist_clv_rate=2%)
  3. 2026-07-01 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 3/8, pre-LLM score 65.7). Main risk: N/A.
  4. 2026-07-02 Candidate pick @ 8.00
  5. — Closing @ 8.75
Closing @ 8.75 -1.1pp Discovery CLV
3 Brazil vs Norway World Cup 2026-07-02 FADE Draw 3.60 3.74 -1.0pp 80 🔥
Entry 87d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
3.74
Expected CLV -1.0pp
Why

The market has moved against the draw (+5.9% move), and the closing edge is significantly negative (-14.1pp). The model probability (13.68%) is much lower than the market probability (27.78%), indicating a potential overvaluation of the draw. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could indicate insider knowledge favoring the draw.

Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence: Moderate (B)
Sample Size 76
Historical CLV 52%
Historical ROI +33.9%
Coverage Tier Low
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 3.60
  1. 2026-07-01 Pass Ranked 8/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-07-02 Candidate pick @ 3.60
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 3.60
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 10/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
  5. 2026-07-04 Pass Ranked 9/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
  6. 2026-07-05 Lens filter Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=47, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=18.8h, hist_n=236, hist_clv_rate=4%)
  7. — Closing @ 3.74
Closing @ 3.74 -1.0pp Discovery CLV

😈 Anti-Steam AI

1 Botafogo SP vs Avai Serie B 2026-07-02 FADE Valuation disagreement Botafogo SP Win 4.75 1.90 +31.6pp 65 ⚠️
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry 87d ago
4.75
→
Expected Closing
1.90
Expected CLV +31.6pp
Why

The market has heavily steamed Avai, pushing their odds to 4.75, but the model probability for Avai is significantly lower than the market's at 12.37% versus 21.05%. This suggests an overreaction to the steam. Main risk: Botafogo SP's home advantage and better xG metrics could justify their favoritism.

Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 4.75
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 4.75
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 4.75
  3. 2026-07-02 Replaced with updated pick @ 4.75
  4. 2026-07-03 Candidate pick @ 4.75
  5. 2026-07-03 Withdrawn before validation @ 4.75
  6. 2026-07-04 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 3/10, pre-LLM score 79.15). Main risk: N/A.
  7. 2026-07-05 Candidate pick @ 4.75
  8. 2026-07-05 Withdrawn before validation @ 4.75
  9. 2026-07-06 Lens filter Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=20.8h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
  10. — Closing @ 1.90
Closing @ 1.90 +31.6pp Discovery CLV
2 Sirius vs Mjallby AIF Allsvenskan 2026-07-02 FADE Valuation disagreement Sirius Win 5.00 1.62 +41.7pp 58 ⚠️
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry 87d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
1.62
Expected CLV +41.7pp
Why

Mjallby AIF's odds have drifted to 5.0, and the model probability (16.5%) is below the market's (20.0%), indicating potential value on the home side. However, Sirius's xG advantage and Mjallby's poor Elo rating suggest caution. Main risk: Sirius's form may not justify their favoritism.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 5.00
  1. 2026-07-01 Candidate pick @ 5.00
  2. 2026-07-02 Update @ 5.00
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 5.00
  4. 2026-07-03 Pass Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.53). Main risk: N/A.
  5. — Closing @ 1.62
Closing @ 1.62 +41.7pp Discovery CLV
3 Tallinna Kalev vs Maardu Esiliiga A 2026-07-02 FADE Valuation disagreement Maardu Win 2.25 2.55 -5.2pp 60 🔥
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry 87d ago
2.25
→
Expected Closing
2.55
Expected CLV -5.2pp
Why

Tallinna Kalev has seen strong steam, but the model probability (36.11%) is below the market's (44.44%), indicating potential overpricing. Elo and xG differences are minimal, suggesting no clear edge. Main risk: Maardu's poor Elo rating may still make them vulnerable.

Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
  1. ✓ Pick Generated
  2. ✓ Market Tracked
  3. ✓ Closed
  4. ○ ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline Candidate pick @ 2.25
  1. 2026-07-01 Pass LLM did not select this match (rank 3/6, pre-LLM score 69.41). Main risk: N/A.
  2. 2026-07-02 Candidate pick @ 2.25
  3. 2026-07-02 Withdrawn before validation @ 2.25
  4. 2026-07-03 Lens filter Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=66, breadth=82%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=1.2h, hist_n=599, hist_clv_rate=2%)
  5. — Closing @ 2.55
Closing @ 2.55 -5.2pp Discovery CLV
🚀 Momentum AI Tracking 4 picks
Hypothesis: Late market moves contain information that improves betting decisions.
Theory Verified Confidence: High
Building Qualification 54 / 50 Settled Bets
Eligible for official ranking
ROI
—
Positive CLV
Insufficient Data
Recent Results
Latest Picks
  • Glenorchy Knights Win
  • Ægir Win
  • Deutschlandsberger SC Win
⚖️ Balanced AI Tracking 2 picks
Hypothesis: Combining multiple signals is more reliable than relying on a single factor.
Theory Building Confidence: Medium
Building Qualification 29 / 50 Settled Bets
21 more settled picks required for official ranking
ROI
—
Positive CLV
Insufficient Data
Recent Results
Latest Picks
  • Ægir Win
  • Glenorchy Knights Win
📊 Pattern AI Tracking 3 picks
Hypothesis: Recurring market patterns appear often enough to support systematic betting.
Theory Building Confidence: Medium
Building Qualification 10 / 50 Settled Bets
40 more settled picks required for official ranking
ROI
-100.0%
Positive CLV
Insufficient Data
Record 0-1 · Win Rate 0.0% · Profit -1.0u · Total Staked 1.0u · Avg Stake 1.00u
Recent Results L
Latest Picks
  • Fade Draw
  • Fade Draw
  • Fade Draw
🛡️ Conservative AI
Hypothesis: Selective betting beats betting volume.
No picks tracked yet
Theory in Testing Confidence: Low
Building Qualification 1 / 50 Settled Bets
49 more settled picks required for official ranking
😈 Anti-Steam AI Tracking 3 picks
Hypothesis: The market sometimes overreacts, creating value on the opposite side.
Theory Building Confidence: Medium
Building Qualification 27 / 50 Settled Bets
23 more settled picks required for official ranking
ROI
—
Positive CLV
Insufficient Data
Recent Results
Latest Picks
  • Fade Botafogo SP Win
  • Fade Sirius Win
  • Fade Maardu Win

Confidence reflects sample size only. Each AI needs 50 settled picks to enter the official ranking. CLV rate appears after 10 settled picks.

Community Benchmark

★Consensus
Hypothesis: Multiple independent opinions outperform individual opinions.
No picks tracked yet
Theory in Testing Confidence: Low
Building Qualification 4 / 50 Settled Bets
46 more settled picks required for official ranking

Why This Matters

Every bettor has a theory.

  • Follow the market.
  • Fade the market.
  • Trust only high-confidence picks.
  • Look for recurring patterns.

We track each approach publicly and measure the results over time.

The goal is simple:

Which ideas actually beat the market?

Example Betting Hypotheses

  • Following major market moves reveals useful information.
  • Betting against popular market sentiment creates value.
  • Fewer high-conviction bets outperform high-volume betting.
  • Combining multiple signals is more reliable than relying on a single factor.
  • Recurring market patterns can be identified and exploited over time.
  • Consensus opinions outperform individual opinions.

The Championship does not assume any of these ideas are true.

The purpose is to test them publicly.

← Current Championship