The market is undergoing sharp repricing with a slight positive closing edge (2.81pp). However, the historical pattern's CLV rate is only marginally positive (52%), and the pattern similarity is moderate (60%). The main risk is that the sharp-led signal might indicate a genuine market adjustment, but the edge is too small to justify a bet. Main risk: Line may move against the entry after posting.
The model shows a decent edge (5.15pp), but the historical pattern similarity is only moderate (55.7%), and the CLV rate is not strongly supportive (52%). The market state indicates the model is leading, but the lack of market movement and low steam score suggest limited confidence. Main risk: The model's edge may materialize, but the historical pattern is not strong enough to support a bet.
The sharp-led signal and significant negative closing edge (-7.26pp) suggest the market is strongly against the draw. The historical pattern's CLV rate (52%) and low pattern similarity (45%) further weaken the case for a bet. Main risk: The sharp-led signal could be overreacting, but the strong negative edge makes the draw a fade.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size53
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+41.1%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-07-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=130.3h, hist_n=245, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=82.3h, hist_n=237, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-16
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-16
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-07-17
Pass
Ranked 7/7 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 61.2). Main risk: N/A.
1Hobart City vs Clarence Zebras II4-0
✗ Incorrect
Tasmania Southern Championship
2026-07-18
FADEValuation disagreementClarence Zebras II Win
3.60
3.60
+0.0pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
73d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
3.60
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Clarence Zebras II has experienced a strong drift, with odds increasing from 2.9 to 3.6. The market probability (27.78%) is still higher than the model probability (23.31%), indicating a potential overestimation of their chances. Main risk: Clarence Zebras II has a significant Elo advantage of 266.9.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-07-18
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
—
Closing
@ 3.60
2Criciuma vs Vila Nova2-0
✗ Incorrect
Serie B
2026-07-18
FADEValuation disagreementVila Nova Win
6.25
5.75
+1.4pp
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
73d ago
6.25
→
Expected Closing
5.75
Expected CLV
+1.4pp
Why
Vila Nova's odds have drifted from 5.25 to 6.25, and the market probability (16.0%) is still higher than the model probability (11.85%). This suggests the market may still be overestimating their chances. Main risk: Vila Nova has a strong Elo advantage of 77.8 and a significant xG difference of 1.59.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.25
2026-07-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=137.8h, hist_n=245, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-14
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=43, breadth=73%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=113.8h, hist_n=199, hist_clv_rate=5%)
2026-07-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=43, breadth=73%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=89.8h, hist_n=198, hist_clv_rate=5%)
