1France vs IraqWorld Cup
2026-06-19
BETIraq Win
34.00
28.00
+0.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
102d ago
34.00
→
Expected Closing
28.00
Expected CLV
+0.6pp
Why
Iraq's odds have drifted significantly from 19.0 to 34.0, yet the model assigns a probability of 30.48%, creating a massive closing edge of 27.54 percentage points. The steam score of 92 and sharp repricing signal further support this contrarian value play. Main risk: Extremely high odds suggest a low baseline win probability, and volatility is high.
Magic United has experienced significant odds movement from 23.0 to 9.5, indicating strong market steam and repricing. The model probability of 33.31% far exceeds the market probability of 10.53%, providing a strong value edge. Main risk: High volatility and a significant Elo disadvantage (-180.5) could lead to unpredictability.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 18/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.2). Main risk: N/A.
Uzbekistan's odds have shifted from 9.0 to 12.0, but the model probability of 30.48% still provides a strong closing edge of 22.15 percentage points. The low volatility and strong steam signal make this a calculated value play. Main risk: Portugal's higher Elo and quality could dominate despite the edge.
St George Willawong has seen a sharp odds drop from 6.0 to 3.6, indicating strong market support. The closing edge of 9.76% suggests value, and the low volatility reduces risk. Main risk: Negative Elo and xG differences indicate potential underperformance.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 28/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
Candidate pick
@ 3.60
—
Closing
@ 3.51
2Sabadell vs Zamora4-0
✗ Incorrect
Primera División RFEF - Play Offs
2026-06-19
BETZamora Win
4.75
5.11
-1.5pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
102d ago
4.75
→
Expected Closing
5.11
Expected CLV
-1.5pp
Why
Zamora's odds have risen sharply, but the model probability of 34.24% against the market's 21.05% shows significant value. The closing edge of 13.19% further supports this. Main risk: Limited historical data and small Elo difference.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-06-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=26, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=42.0h)
Magic United's odds have dropped dramatically from 23.0 to 9.5, but their Elo difference of -180.5 is concerning. High volatility adds further uncertainty. Main risk: Market overreaction to sharp movement.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 25/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.94). Main risk: N/A.
Guangzhou E-Power's odds have risen significantly, but the model probability of 30.58% against the market's 18.18% suggests value. The closing edge of 12.4% supports this bet. Main risk: High volatility and negative xG difference.
Bentleigh Greens' odds have risen from 2.6 to 4.5, but the model probability of 37.54% against the market's 22.22% indicates value. The closing edge of 15.32% is compelling. Main risk: Limited historical data and sharp odds movement.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.50
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 18/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.6). Main risk: N/A.
1Mexico vs South Korea1-0
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-19
FADEValuation disagreementSouth Korea Win
2.10
4.21
-23.9pp
75
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
102d ago
2.10
→
Expected Closing
4.21
Expected CLV
-23.9pp
Why
Mexico's odds have drifted significantly despite strong steam and a low xG advantage. The model probability (38.23%) is well below the market probability (47.62%), indicating overvaluation. Main risk: South Korea's superior Elo rating and potential undervaluation of their form.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.10
2026-06-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=75%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=168.0h)
2026-06-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=68, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=144.0h)
2026-06-14
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=62, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=120.0h)
2026-06-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=62, breadth=92%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=96.0h)
2026-06-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=58, breadth=75%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=72.0h)
2026-06-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=66, breadth=85%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=48.0h)
2026-06-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=68, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=24.0h)
Adelaide Blue Eagles have seen significant steam with a sharp odds drop, but the model probability (36.59%) is close to market probability (38.17%), suggesting limited value. Main risk: Modbury Jets' home advantage and potential market correction.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.62
2026-06-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=52.5h)
2026-06-19
Candidate pick
@ 2.62
2026-06-19
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.62
2026-06-20
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=60%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=4.4h)
—
Closing
@ 1.91
3Brunswick Juventus FC vs Bulleen Lions1-5
✗ Incorrect
Victoria NPL 2
2026-06-19
FADEValuation disagreementBrunswick Juventus FC Win
3.10
1.95
+19.0pp
60
⚠️
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
102d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
1.95
Expected CLV
+19.0pp
Why
Bulleen Lions' odds have shortened significantly, but the model probability (30.58%) is slightly below the market probability (32.26%). The xG advantage for Bulleen Lions supports fading the home side. Main risk: Limited historical data and potential market inefficiency.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-06-18
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=30, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=33.5h)
