1Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia0-0
✗ Incorrect
First League
2026-07-20
BETSlavia Sofia Win
6.50
6.65
-0.3pp
75
⚡
▾
Entry
71d ago
6.50
→
Expected Closing
6.65
Expected CLV
-0.3pp
Why
Slavia Sofia shows strong model probability (47.56%) compared to market probability (15.38%), indicating significant value. The closing edge is high at 32.18, and the xG difference is favorable at 0.47. Main risk: Elo difference is heavily against Slavia Sofia (-102.8), suggesting they are the weaker team overall.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.50
2026-07-16
Pass
Ranked 38/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.23). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
Pass
Ranked 10/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
Pass
Ranked 28/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
Pass
Ranked 13/116 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.95). Main risk: N/A.
Real Oruro has a strong model probability (41.85%) compared to market probability (16.67%), with a closing edge of 25.18. The market state indicates sharp repricing, suggesting informed betting activity. Main risk: Negative xG difference (-0.11) and low historical CLV rates may limit reliability.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
2026-06-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=22.0h)
2026-07-19
Pass
Ranked 61/116 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 48.4). Main risk: N/A.
Qingdao Jonoon has a strong model probability (69.36%) versus market probability (39.68%), with a closing edge of 29.68. The xG difference is highly favorable at 1.54, and the market state indicates discovery, suggesting potential undervaluation. Main risk: Low steam score (40) and lack of significant market movement.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.52
2026-07-20
Candidate pick
@ 2.52
2026-07-20
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.52
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=43, breadth=71%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=103.6h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=62%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=79.4h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 3.00
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 53/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.78). Main risk: N/A.
Calcutta Police has seen significant sharp steam with a high steam score (95) and breadth percentage (87.5%). The odds have shortened considerably from 6.0 to 4.75, indicating strong market confidence. The closing edge is positive (+3.08), and the Elo difference (+237.6) supports the pick. Main risk: The market probability is still relatively low at 21.05%, indicating a potential upset.
Oakland Roots have experienced strong steam (steam score 92) and a significant odds drop from 4.9 to 3.7. The closing edge is substantial (+10.03), and the model probability (37.06%) is much higher than the market probability (27.03%). Main risk: The Elo and xG differences are negligible, suggesting a close match.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.70
2026-07-17
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=141.4h, hist_n=230, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-18
Candidate pick
@ 3.66
2026-07-18
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.66
2026-07-19
Pass
Ranked 8/37 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.65). Main risk: N/A.
Barcelona SC has a strong steam score (86) and 100% breadth, with odds drifting from 3.63 to 4.33. The model probability (31.59%) is significantly higher than the market probability (23.09%), providing a solid closing edge of +8.5. Main risk: The drift in odds suggests some market skepticism despite the positive edge.
Real Oruro has a strong market steam signal (steam score 72) and a positive closing edge (+25.18). The odds have shortened from 7.0 to 6.0, and the model probability (41.85%) is significantly higher than the market probability (16.67%). Main risk: The xG difference is slightly negative, which could indicate some vulnerability.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
2026-06-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=22.0h)
Cooma Tigers FC has experienced an extreme odds drift (423.1%), with odds ballooning from 6.5 to 34.0. This suggests a strong negative sentiment in the market. Despite the high model probability (34.7%), the market probability is extremely low (2.94%), indicating a lack of confidence in the home side. Main risk: The high volatility of the match could lead to unexpected outcomes.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.50
2026-07-17
Pass
Ranked 42/51 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 75.78). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
Pass
Ranked 30/81 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
Pass
Ranked 23/37 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 87.9). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-20
Candidate pick
@ 2.50
2026-07-20
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.50
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=53, breadth=57%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=31.6h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-22
Pass
Ranked 29/39 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.56). Main risk: N/A.
The historical CLV for this pattern is only slightly positive (52%), and the closing edge is negligible at 0.23pp. The market is undergoing sharp repricing, suggesting potential overreaction to sharp money. Main risk: The match has low volatility, which could favor a draw outcome.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size47
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+41.2%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.40
2026-07-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=4, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=38.3h, hist_n=190, hist_clv_rate=5%)
1Ceara vs CRBSerie B
2026-07-20
FADEValuation disagreementCRB Win
3.44
3.49
-0.4pp
70
⚡
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
71d ago
3.44
→
Expected Closing
3.49
Expected CLV
-0.4pp
Why
CRB has been steamed heavily, but the model probability (12.06%) is much lower than the market probability (29.07%), with a sharp negative closing edge (-17.01 pp). The xG difference and Elo ratings are nearly even, suggesting no clear advantage for CRB. Main risk: Potential underestimation of CRB's form or tactical adjustments.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.34
2026-07-19
Candidate pick
@ 3.34
2026-07-20
Update
@ 3.44(Candidate pick 3.34)
2026-07-20
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.44(Candidate pick 3.34)
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=29, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=20.4h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
—
Closing
@ 3.49
2Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC2-1
✗ Incorrect
Liga Pro
2026-07-20
FADEValuation disagreementOrense SC Win
4.00
3.97
+0.2pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
71d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
3.97
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Orense SC has seen significant steam with a high steam score and breadth percentage, but the model probability (12.49%) is far below the market probability (25.0%), indicating an overheated market. The closing edge is deeply negative (-12.51 pp), and the xG difference strongly favors Mushuc Runa SC. Main risk: Orense SC's recent form or unforeseen lineup changes.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-19
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=0, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=41.5h, hist_n=229, hist_clv_rate=4%)
