The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Slavia Sofia at 47.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Slavia Sofia Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | 47.6% | 14.2% | +33.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.2% | +1.7 pp | Aligned |
| CSKA Sofia | 28.5% | 63.5% | -35.0 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates CSKA Sofia's win probability at 63.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 35.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Slavia Sofia by 35.0 percentage points (82.6% vs model 47.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 47.6% · Draw 23.9% · CSKA Sofia 28.5%
- xG · Slavia Sofia 2.00 — CSKA Sofia 1.53
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 6.65 · Draw 4.26 · CSKA Sofia 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 14.2% · Draw 22.2% · CSKA Sofia 63.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Slavia Sofia 6.65 · Draw 4.26 · CSKA Sofia 1.49
- Implied 1X2 · Slavia Sofia 14.2% · Draw 22.2% · CSKA Sofia 63.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 4 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
