The draw between Qatar and Switzerland shows strong steam with a high steam score of 88 and a significant closing edge of 15.36 percentage points. The model probability of 29.65% is notably higher than the market probability of 14.29%, indicating value. Main risk: The market may be overreacting to sharp money, and the low volatility could limit upside.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.00
2026-06-08
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/9, pre-LLM score 55.47). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-09
Pass
Ranked 6/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 49.45). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
Pass
Ranked 6/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 50.15). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-11
Candidate pick
@ 7.00
2026-06-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.00
2026-06-12
Pass
Ranked 5/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.48). Main risk: N/A.
Cape Verde Islands as an away pick against Spain shows an extreme closing edge of 30.39 percentage points and a model probability of 34.24% versus a market probability of 3.85%. However, the sharp-led signal and the very high odds suggest this could be a contrarian overreaction. Main risk: The market may have correctly priced Spain's dominance, making this a high-risk fade.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
26.00
2026-06-09
Pass
Ranked 4/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 49.8). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-10
Candidate pick
@ 30.00
2026-06-10
Replaced with updated pick
@ 30.00
2026-06-11
Candidate pick
@ 26.00
2026-06-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 26.00
2026-06-12
Pass
Ranked 10/60 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 66.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-13
Pass
Ranked 13/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 85.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-14
Pass
Ranked 9/117 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 89.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-15
Pass
Ranked 6/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.23). Main risk: N/A.
The draw option for Qatar vs Switzerland shows strong steam with a high steam score of 88 and a significant closing edge of 15.36 percentage points. The market has sharply repriced, and the model probability (29.65%) is well above the market probability (14.29%), indicating potential value. Main risk: Limited historical pattern data and low league volatility may reduce reliability of the signal.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
7.00
2026-06-08
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=27, breadth=38%, signal=volatile_market, kickoff_in=138.0h)
2026-06-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=27, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=114.0h)
2026-06-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=29, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=90.0h)
2026-06-11
Candidate pick
@ 7.00
2026-06-11
Withdrawn before validation
@ 7.00
2026-06-12
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=60, breadth=86%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=42.0h)
