1New Zealand vs BelgiumWorld Cup
2026-06-27
BETNew Zealand Win
15.00
14.00
+0.5pp
70
🔥
▾
Entry
94d ago
15.00
→
Expected Closing
14.00
Expected CLV
+0.5pp
Why
New Zealand shows a strong steam signal with a closing edge of 33.92 percentage points. The model probability of 40.59% far exceeds the market's 6.67%, indicating significant value. The sharp repricing suggests market inefficiency. Main risk: Belgium's Elo advantage and high volatility.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 82/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
Pass
Ranked 59/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
Pass
Ranked 6/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 97.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 15.00(Candidate pick 13.00)
—
Closing
@ 14.00
2Panama vs EnglandWorld Cup
2026-06-27
BETPanama Win
17.00
17.50
-0.2pp
72
🔥
▾
Entry
94d ago
17.00
→
Expected Closing
17.50
Expected CLV
-0.2pp
Why
Panama's odds have drifted significantly, creating a large positive closing edge of 34.98 percentage points. The model probability of 40.86% is much higher than the market's 5.88%, suggesting value. The strong steam signal and sharp repricing indicate market overreaction. Main risk: Panama's low Elo rating and high volatility.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
13.00
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 94/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 51.95). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
Pass
Ranked 58/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.55). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/65, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/59, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-24
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 3/73, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/89, pre-LLM score 99.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 17.00(Candidate pick 13.00)
—
Closing
@ 17.50
3Perth Glory II vs Stirling Lions1-1
✗ Incorrect
Western Australia NPL
2026-06-27
FADEStirling Lions Win
4.00
1.56
+39.1pp
65
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
94d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
1.56
Expected CLV
+39.1pp
Why
Perth Glory II's odds have drifted, but the closing edge is only 8.31 percentage points, which is relatively low. The model probability of 33.31% does not strongly justify a bet. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Stirling Lions' form.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 4.00
—
Closing
@ 1.56
4Jordan vs Argentina1-3
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-27
BETJordan Win
15.00
19.00
-1.4pp
83
🔥
▾
Entry
93d ago
15.00
→
Expected Closing
19.00
Expected CLV
-1.4pp
Why
Jordan's odds have also drifted heavily, with a closing edge of 32.63 percentage points. The model probability of 39.3% is significantly higher than the market's 6.67%, and the steam score is at the maximum level of 99. Main risk: Argentina's overwhelming strength and potential market inefficiency.
Plzen's odds have shortened significantly, but the market probability of 83.33% is not supported by the model's lower implied probability. The steam score for Artis is strong at 90, suggesting potential value on the away side. Main risk: Plzen's clear quality advantage and home dominance.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
8.50
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 8.50
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 8/151 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 93.73). Main risk: N/A.
The match between Lyn and Hodd shows a low volatility environment with a closing edge of 1.37pp, which is within acceptable limits for a pattern replay. Historical CLV data supports the draw side with a 52% positive rate. The market state indicates sharp repricing, and the pattern similarity is 60%, suggesting a reasonable match to historical trends. Main risk: The xG differential slightly favors Lyn, which could reduce the likelihood of a draw.
The Strommen vs Moss fixture has a closing edge of 3.95pp, supported by a 52% historical CLV positive rate and a pattern similarity of 58.1%. The market is in sharp repricing mode, and the odds movement aligns with historical patterns. The low volatility and balanced xG differential further support this bet. Main risk: Elo differential slightly favors Moss, which could tilt the outcome away from a draw.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size85
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+27.0%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.90
2026-06-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%. (Current: steam=62, breadth=83%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=60.8h)
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%. (Current: steam=62, breadth=83%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=36.8h)
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 3.90
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%. (Current: steam=50, breadth=77%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=12.8h)
The Völsungur vs Grotta match shows a closing edge of 4.01pp, but the pattern similarity is only 58%, which is on the lower end of acceptable thresholds. Additionally, the market state is in discovery mode, indicating less confidence in the current odds. While historical CLV data is positive, the high Elo differential in favor of Grotta raises concerns about the likelihood of a draw. Main risk: The market may still be adjusting, leading to potential mispricing.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size85
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+27.0%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.90
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%. (Current: steam=52, breadth=50%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=37.8h)
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 3.90
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥15; historical ROI must be >0%. (Current: steam=42, breadth=85%, signal=market_fading, kickoff_in=13.8h)
1Algeria vs AustriaWorld Cup
2026-06-27
FADEContrarianDraw
2.20
2.07
+2.9pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
93d ago
2.20
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+2.9pp
Why
The market has strongly steamed the draw, with odds dropping significantly from 3.25 to 2.2. However, the model probability for a draw is only 29.91%, far below the market's implied probability of 45.45%. This suggests the draw is overvalued. Main risk: The low volatility of the match could favor a draw outcome.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.75
2026-06-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=51, breadth=85%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=66, breadth=85%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=145.0h)
Inter De Limeira's odds have drifted despite strong steam, and the model probability (34.24%) is much lower than the market probability (44.44%). This suggests the market overvalues the home side. Main risk: Small positive Elo differential for the home team.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.25
2026-06-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=84, breadth=70%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=36.8h)
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 2.25
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 5/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.8). Main risk: N/A.
Shanghai Second has strong steam and a slight edge in model probability (36.11% vs. 37.04% market), but the closing edge is negative, and the odds movement suggests overpricing. Main risk: Limited data and potential for market correction.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.70
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 2.70
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 11/17 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 60.48). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.70
—
Closing
@ 2.77
4Botafogo SP vs CRBSerie B
2026-06-27
FADEValuation disagreementCRB Win
3.40
3.48
-0.7pp
70
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
93d ago
3.40
→
Expected Closing
3.48
Expected CLV
-0.7pp
Why
CRB has seen strong steam with odds drifting from 2.75 to 3.4, but the model probability of 13.15% is significantly lower than the market's implied probability of 29.41%. The sharp repricing suggests the market is overestimating CRB's chances. Main risk: CRB's xG advantage of 1.53 could indicate a potential upset.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.40
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 3.40
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=60, breadth=42%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=93.8h)
2026-06-27
Replaced with updated pick
@ 3.40
2026-06-28
Candidate pick
@ 3.40
2026-06-29
Update
@ 3.40
2026-06-30
Update
@ 3.50(Candidate pick 3.40)
—
Closing
@ 3.48
5NSÍ II vs B36 II0-1
✗ Incorrect
1. Deild
2026-06-27
FADEValuation disagreementNSÍ II Win
2.20
2.01
+4.3pp
68
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
93d ago
2.20
→
Expected Closing
2.01
Expected CLV
+4.3pp
Why
NSÍ II has been heavily steamed, with odds shortening from 1.75 to 2.2. However, the model probability of 36.11% is below the market's implied probability of 45.45%. This suggests the home side is overvalued. Main risk: The xG and elo differences are minimal, indicating a tight match.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.20
2026-06-27
Candidate pick
@ 2.20
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 13/13 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 44.84). Main risk: N/A.
