1Halmstad vs BK HackenAllsvenskan
2026-07-15
BETHalmstad Win
5.50
4.89
+2.3pp
85
🔥
▾
Entry
76d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
4.89
Expected CLV
+2.3pp
Why
Halmstad shows significant model value with a closing edge of 40.02 and strong drift signals. Despite a low steam score, the model probability of 58.2% far exceeds the market probability of 18.18%. Main risk: Elo difference favors BK Hacken, indicating potential underestimation of their strength.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-07-15
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
2026-07-15
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.50
2026-07-16
Pass
Ranked 19/87 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
Pass
Ranked 23/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.67). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
Pass
Ranked 51/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.83). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-19
Pass
Ranked 20/116 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 73.83). Main risk: N/A.
Wuhan Three Towns has a strong model probability of 79.12% compared to the market probability of 47.62%, supported by a closing edge of 31.5. The xG difference of 2.07 further supports their chances. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors Sichuan Jiuniu, suggesting potential overvaluation of Wuhan.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.10
2026-07-13
Pass
Ranked 6/51 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-14
Pass
Ranked 15/99 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.0). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-15
Candidate pick
@ 2.10
2026-07-15
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.10
2026-07-17
Pass
Ranked 24/144 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.6). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-18
Pass
Ranked 29/128 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 80.22). Main risk: N/A.
—
Closing
@ 2.31
3St Joseph S Fc vs BohemiansUEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-15
FADEBohemians Win
5.25
1.61
+43.1pp
65
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
76d ago
5.25
→
Expected Closing
1.61
Expected CLV
+43.1pp
Why
St Joseph S Fc shows strong steam signals and sharp repricing, with a closing edge of 15.65. However, their Elo and xG differences are negative, indicating a weaker team overall. Main risk: Market may be overreacting to recent steam movements favoring the home side.
1Malisheva vs Vllaznia Shkodër5-0
✗ Incorrect
UEFA Europa Conference League
2026-07-15
FADEDraw
3.60
3.79
-1.4pp
65
🔥
▾
Entry
76d ago
3.60
→
Expected Closing
3.79
Expected CLV
-1.4pp
Why
The market is drifting away from the draw, indicating weak support. Historical CLV is only marginally positive at 52%, and the closing edge is minimal at 1.76pp. Main risk: The drift could reverse if late money supports the draw.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size54
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+43.9%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.60
2026-07-14
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=70, breadth=100%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=37.3h, hist_n=493, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The draw shows a sharp-led repricing with a positive closing edge of 3.31pp and historical CLV at 52%. The market probability aligns closely with the model, suggesting a fair value bet. Main risk: The sharp-led movement could be overreacting to small market signals.
Money Signal
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size54
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+43.9%
Coverage TierLow
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.80
2026-07-13
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=52, breadth=89%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=69.8h, hist_n=208, hist_clv_rate=5%)
1Atert Bissen vs KI Klaksvik1-2
✓ Correct
UEFA Champions League
2026-07-15
FADEValuation disagreementKI Klaksvik Win
2.25
2.78
-8.5pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
76d ago
2.25
→
Expected Closing
2.78
Expected CLV
-8.5pp
Why
KI Klaksvik has seen a significant drift in odds from 1.85 to 2.25, indicating a loss of market confidence. The model probability (34.24%) is significantly lower than the market probability (44.44%), resulting in a negative edge of -10.2 percentage points. Despite a strong drift signal and a notable Elo advantage, the market's repricing suggests skepticism about their chances. Main risk: KI Klaksvik's Elo advantage could still translate into a win despite the market drift.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.25
2026-07-13
Candidate pick
@ 2.20
2026-07-13
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.20
2026-07-14
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 78.35). Main risk: N/A.
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
76d ago
2.72
→
Expected Closing
2.72
Expected CLV
+0.0pp
Why
Houston Dash W has seen strong steam with odds shortening from 3.58 to 2.72, but the model probability (31.03%) is below the market probability (36.76%), resulting in a negative edge of -5.73 percentage points. The sharp repricing and low league quality further suggest an overreaction. Main risk: Houston Dash W's slight Elo and xG advantages could still make them competitive.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.72
2026-07-15
Candidate pick
@ 2.72
2026-07-15
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.72
2026-07-16
Pass
Ranked 4/8 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.28). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-17
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 73.68). Main risk: N/A.
