Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa Conference League / Malisheva vs Vllaznia Shkodër

Prediction Audit: Malisheva vs Vllaznia Shkodër Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Malisheva Malisheva
Jul 15, 2026 - 14:30
5 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 24%
Vllaznia Shkodër Vllaznia Shkodër

AI correctly predicted the Malisheva win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Malisheva Malisheva ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Malisheva higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Malisheva -14.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Malisheva 39.9% 54.2% -14.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.1% 23.9% +4.2 pp Aligned
Vllaznia Shkodër 32.0% 21.9% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Malisheva's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 14.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Malisheva win 5–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Malisheva than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Malisheva higher (54.2% vs model 39.9%, 14.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Malisheva win 5–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 15, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Malisheva 39.9% · Draw 28.1% · Vllaznia Shkodër 32.0%
    • xG · Malisheva 1.22 — Vllaznia Shkodër 1.38
  2. Jul 15, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Malisheva 1.67 · Draw 3.79 · Vllaznia Shkodër 4.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Malisheva 54.2% · Draw 23.9% · Vllaznia Shkodër 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 15, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Malisheva 1.67 · Draw 3.79 · Vllaznia Shkodër 4.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Malisheva 54.2% · Draw 23.9% · Vllaznia Shkodër 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 15, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Malisheva win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 28/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 23:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2542288

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Malisheva win · Malisheva 5–0 Vllaznia Shkodër
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Fixture: Malisheva vs Vllaznia Shkodër
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Malisheva 1.22 — Vllaznia Shkodër 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa Conference League UEFA Europa Conference League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0