Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu

Prediction Audit: Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns
Jul 18, 2026 - 12:00
2 2.71
0 0.82
xG Accuracy: 66%
Sichuan Jiuniu Sichuan Jiuniu

AI correctly predicted the Wuhan Three Towns win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, 1-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Wuhan Three Towns considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Wuhan Three Towns +34.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wuhan Three Towns 76.3% 41.7% +34.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 15.8% 26.8% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Sichuan Jiuniu 7.9% 31.6% -23.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Wuhan Three Towns's win probability at 76.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 41.7%, a difference of 34.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wuhan Three Towns win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Wuhan Three Towns attacking xG significantly stronger (2.71 vs 0.82)
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wuhan Three Towns more conservatively (41.7% vs model 76.3%, 34.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wuhan Three Towns win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns 76.3% · Draw 15.8% · Sichuan Jiuniu 7.9%
    • xG · Wuhan Three Towns 2.71 — Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wuhan Three Towns 2.31 · Draw 3.60 · Sichuan Jiuniu 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns 41.7% · Draw 26.8% · Sichuan Jiuniu 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wuhan Three Towns 2.31 · Draw 3.60 · Sichuan Jiuniu 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Wuhan Three Towns 41.7% · Draw 26.8% · Sichuan Jiuniu 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wuhan Three Towns win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 20/100 · Not reliable
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (35 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (101%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 5/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1486382

Closing Odds 2.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wuhan Three Towns win · Wuhan Three Towns 2–0 Sichuan Jiuniu
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Wuhan Three Towns; market prices Wuhan Three Towns instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Wuhan Three Towns 2.71 xG vs Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 → Wuhan Three Towns 76.3%
  • Market: Wuhan Three Towns ~41.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27