1Croatia vs GhanaWorld Cup
2026-06-25
FADECroatia Win
5.50
1.84
+36.2pp
70
⚠️
▾
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
96d ago
5.50
→
Expected Closing
1.84
Expected CLV
+36.2pp
Why
Ghana's market probability (18.18%) is lower than the model probability (28.35%), but the closing edge (10.17%) is modest. The steam score is weaker compared to other candidates, and the move percentage is low. Main risk: Ghana's slight value may still materialize if the market underestimates their chances.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.50
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 83/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 57.02). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-21
Pass
Ranked 53/113 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 59.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-22
Pass
Ranked 21/65 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.84). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-23
Pass
Ranked 18/59 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.87). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-24
Pass
Ranked 18/73 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 83.06). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-25
Candidate pick
@ 5.50
2026-06-25
Withdrawn before validation
@ 5.50
2026-06-26
Pass
Ranked 20/129 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.65). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-27
Pass
Ranked 27/151 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 78.41). Main risk: N/A.
2Tunisia vs Netherlands1-3
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-06-25
BETTunisia Win
26.00
28.50
-0.3pp
80
🔥
▾
Entry
96d ago
26.00
→
Expected Closing
28.50
Expected CLV
-0.3pp
Why
Tunisia offers an exceptional closing edge (37.4%) and strong steam signals, with a model probability (41.25%) significantly higher than the market probability (3.85%). The sharp repricing suggests potential mispricing. Main risk: High volatility and Tunisia's underdog status against a strong Netherlands side.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
26.00
2026-06-18
Pass
Ranked 39/94 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 56.52). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-19
Pass
Ranked 62/118 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 54.05). Main risk: N/A.
2026-06-20
Pass
Ranked 8/138 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.05). Main risk: N/A.
1Algeria vs AustriaWorld Cup
2026-06-25
FADEContrarianDraw
2.38
2.07
+6.3pp
85
🔥
▾
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
96d ago
2.38
→
Expected Closing
2.07
Expected CLV
+6.3pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed the draw, with a significant drop in odds and a high steam score of 97. However, the model probability for a draw is only 29.67%, well below the market's implied probability of 42.02%. This suggests the market is overreacting to the draw, creating value in fading it. Main risk: Low volatility in the match could still result in a draw.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.75
2026-06-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=51, breadth=85%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=169.0h)
2026-06-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=66, breadth=85%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=145.0h)
2026-06-27
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.20(Candidate pick 2.75)
2026-06-28
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=97, breadth=92%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=0.8h, hist_n=661, hist_clv_rate=2%)
—
Closing
@ 2.07
2Fluminense U20 vs Palmeiras U200-3
✗ Incorrect
Brasileiro U20 A
2026-06-25
FADEValuation disagreementFluminense U20 Win
3.10
3.61
-4.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
🚀 Strong Price Change
🚀 Strong Price Change
Entry
96d ago
3.10
→
Expected Closing
3.61
Expected CLV
-4.6pp
Why
Fluminense U20 has seen market steam, but their model probability (30.58%) is slightly below the market's implied probability (32.26%), and they have a significant Elo disadvantage (-271.3). The market appears to be overvaluing the home side. Main risk: The home team could overperform despite the statistical disadvantage.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.10
2026-06-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=30, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=40.8h)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
96d ago
2.90
→
Expected Closing
3.13
Expected CLV
-2.5pp
Why
Olympic has been steamed with a sharp drop in odds, but the model probability (34.24%) is nearly identical to the market's implied probability (34.48%), offering no edge. The market may be overreacting to recent betting activity. Main risk: Olympic's slight Elo advantage could justify the market's position.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.90
2026-06-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=49, breadth=40%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=79.8h)
2026-06-25
Candidate pick
@ 2.90
2026-06-25
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.90
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; odds move must be ≥8%; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=14, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=7.8h)
2026-06-27
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=67, breadth=64%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=0.1h, hist_n=668, hist_clv_rate=2%)
