Predictions / Football / Australia. Queensland NPL / Eastern Suburbs vs Olympic

Prediction Audit: Eastern Suburbs vs Olympic Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eastern Suburbs Eastern Suburbs
Jun 27, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Olympic Olympic

The model missed the final outcome (Olympic win 1–2).

The model had projected Eastern Suburbs at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Eastern Suburbs Olympic ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Eastern Suburbs higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Eastern Suburbs -8.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Eastern Suburbs 39.5% 47.4% -8.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.9% 23.4% +4.6 pp Aligned
Olympic 32.6% 29.2% +3.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Eastern Suburbs's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Olympic win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Eastern Suburbs. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Eastern Suburbs; match finished Olympic

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Eastern Suburbs by 8.0 percentage points (47.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 39.5% · Draw 27.9% · Olympic 32.6%
    • xG · Eastern Suburbs 1.32 — Olympic 1.28
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Eastern Suburbs 1.93 · Draw 3.92 · Olympic 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 47.4% · Draw 23.4% · Olympic 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Eastern Suburbs 1.93 · Draw 3.92 · Olympic 3.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Eastern Suburbs 47.4% · Draw 23.4% · Olympic 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olympic win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 60/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1545193

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Olympic win · Eastern Suburbs 1–2 Olympic
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Queensland NPL
  • Fixture: Eastern Suburbs vs Olympic
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Eastern Suburbs 1.32 — Olympic 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Queensland NPL Queensland NPL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lions 22 17 2 3 53
2 Peninsula Power 22 13 6 3 45
3 Moreton City Excelsior 22 12 3 7 39
4 Gold Coast Knights 22 11 5 6 38
5 Brisbane City 22 9 7 6 34
6 WDSC Wolves 22 9 6 7 33
7 Eastern Suburbs 22 9 2 11 29
8 Olympic 22 8 2 12 26
9 Magic United 22 7 1 14 22
10 Rochedale Rovers 22 6 3 13 21
11 Gold Coast United 22 6 2 14 20
12 Brisbane Roar II 22 5 1 16 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lions 22 57 22 +35 53
2 Moreton City Excelsior 22 51 35 +16 39
3 Peninsula Power 22 49 27 +22 45
4 Brisbane City 22 47 48 -1 34
5 Gold Coast Knights 22 46 32 +14 38
6 Olympic 22 39 43 -4 26
7 WDSC Wolves 22 36 40 -4 33
8 Eastern Suburbs 22 34 35 -1 29
9 Rochedale Rovers 22 34 52 -18 21
10 Magic United 22 33 59 -26 22
11 Brisbane Roar II 22 32 52 -20 16
12 Gold Coast United 22 26 39 -13 20