FC Miami City shows strong steam signals with a high steam score of 96 and a significant move percentage of 27.4%. The model probability of 37.54% is notably higher than the market probability of 23.09%, indicating value. The closing edge is positive at 14.45, and the league quality is high (bucket A). Main risk: The sharp repricing suggests market skepticism about the home side's chances, reflected in the drift in odds.
Replaced with updated pick
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.33
2026-07-05
Pass
Ranked 5/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-06
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-06
Replaced with updated pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Candidate pick
@ 4.33
2026-07-07
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.33
2026-07-08
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/68, pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-09
Pass
Ranked 5/57 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 94.36). Main risk: N/A.
Mjallby AIF has a strong model probability of 73.82% compared to the market probability of 50%, creating a significant closing edge of 23.82. The team has a positive xG difference of 1.83 and a favorable Elo difference of 59.8. The league quality is high, and the match is in the discovery phase, suggesting potential value. Main risk: Lack of steam movement and relatively low steam score may indicate limited market confidence.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.00
2026-07-06
Candidate pick
@ 2.00
2026-07-06
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.00
2026-07-09
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=42, breadth=38%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=59.8h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
2026-07-10
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=54, breadth=62%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=35.8h, hist_n=225, hist_clv_rate=4%)
—
Closing
@ 1.94
3Portugal vs Spain0-1
✗ Incorrect
World Cup
2026-07-06
BETPortugal Win
4.00
4.31
-1.8pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
85d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
4.31
Expected CLV
-1.8pp
Why
Portugal has a strong model probability of 58.09% compared to the market probability of 25%, resulting in a significant closing edge of 33.09. The team has a positive xG difference of 0.96 and a slight Elo advantage of 17.6. The sharp-led market state supports the pick. Main risk: Negative move percentage (-4.8%) indicates some market resistance to the home side.
Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-05
Pass
Ranked 28/109 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 71.38). Main risk: N/A.
Orange County SC has strong steam and a positive closing edge (+6.83). Elo and xG differences favor the away side, supporting the pick. Main risk: Low market probability and potential volatility in away performance.
Ponte Preta shows exceptional closing edge (+38.86) and strong steam, with model probability significantly exceeding market probability. This represents high-value potential. Main risk: Elo disadvantage and reliance on market repricing signals.
The draw option for Gold Coast Knights vs Lions has strong steam but lacks historical pattern similarity and has a negative Elo difference. Main risk: Draws are inherently volatile and difficult to predict.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-06-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65; requires strong money signal. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=43, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=90.0h, hist_n=76, hist_clv_rate=52%)
2026-07-02
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=43, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=89.6h, hist_n=76, hist_clv_rate=52%)
2026-07-03
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=43, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=89.2h, hist_n=76, hist_clv_rate=52%)
2026-07-04
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=43, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=80.2h, hist_n=76, hist_clv_rate=52%)
2026-07-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=43, breadth=69%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=56.3h, hist_n=73, hist_clv_rate=52%)
The draw market for Alta vs Charlotte Independence shows a slight positive closing edge of 1.86pp and is supported by a historical pattern with a 52% positive CLV rate. The sharp-led market state and low volatility further strengthen the case. Main risk: The edge is marginal, and the elo difference slightly favors Charlotte Independence.
The draw market for Switzerland vs Colombia shows a significant negative closing edge (-14.78pp) and a sharp-led market state, indicating strong contrarian value in fading this outcome. Historical patterns do not support the draw either, with low similarity (45%). Main risk: Colombia's lower xG and elo ratings could lead to a more defensive approach, increasing the likelihood of a draw.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size70
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+29.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.00
2026-07-06
Candidate pick
@ 3.00
2026-07-06
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.00
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=5, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=18.8h, hist_n=255, hist_clv_rate=4%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
85d ago
2.35
→
Expected Closing
2.41
Expected CLV
-1.1pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed Tacoma Defiance, but the model probability (35.64%) is significantly below the market probability (42.55%), indicating an overreaction. The closing edge is negative (-6.91), and the Elo difference slightly favors Portland Timbers II. Main risk: Tacoma's xG advantage and low volatility could lead to a stable performance at home.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.35
2026-07-05
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=58, breadth=78%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=24.8h, hist_n=236, hist_clv_rate=4%)
