Predictions / Football / Sweden. Allsvenskan / Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm

Prediction Audit: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mjallby AIF Mjallby AIF
Jul 11, 2026 - 13:00
1 2.94
2 1.11
xG Accuracy: 46%
AIK Stockholm AIK Stockholm

The model missed the final outcome (AIK Stockholm win 1–2).

The model had projected Mjallby AIF at 67.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mjallby AIF AIK Stockholm ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 3-0, 4-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Mjallby AIF considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mjallby AIF +17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mjallby AIF 67.1% 49.3% +17.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.6% 25.0% -6.4 pp Market Higher
AIK Stockholm 14.3% 25.7% -11.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Mjallby AIF's win probability at 67.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 49.3%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was AIK Stockholm win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Mjallby AIF.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.05) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Mjallby AIF; match finished AIK Stockholm
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Mjallby AIF by 17.8 percentage points (49.3% vs model 67.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 11, 2026 · 20:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 67.1% · Draw 18.6% · AIK Stockholm 14.3%
    • xG · Mjallby AIF 2.94 — AIK Stockholm 1.11
  2. Jul 11, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mjallby AIF 1.93 · Draw 3.93 · AIK Stockholm 3.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 49.7% · Draw 24.4% · AIK Stockholm 25.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 11, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mjallby AIF 1.94 · Draw 3.83 · AIK Stockholm 3.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Mjallby AIF 49.3% · Draw 25.0% · AIK Stockholm 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 11, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result AIK Stockholm win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 42/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (118%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 09:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1578529

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds 1.49
CLV Pending
Final Result AIK Stockholm win · Mjallby AIF 1–2 AIK Stockholm
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 67.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 65–70% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Allsvenskan
  • Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Mjallby AIF 2.94 — AIK Stockholm 1.11 (total xG ≈ 4.05)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Allsvenskan Allsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sirius 22 16 3 3 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 13 4 5 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 13 2 7 41
4 IF Elfsborg 22 10 7 5 37
5 BK Hacken 22 9 9 4 36
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 10 5 7 35
7 Malmo FF 22 10 3 9 33
8 AIK Stockholm 22 9 6 7 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 9 5 8 32
10 Gais 22 8 6 8 30
11 IF Brommapojkarna 22 7 6 9 27
12 Mjallby AIF 22 5 7 10 22
13 Kalmar FF 22 5 4 13 19
14 Degerfors IF 22 5 4 13 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 3 6 13 15
16 Halmstad 22 3 5 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sirius 22 52 28 +24 51
2 Hammarby FF 22 49 20 +29 43
3 Djurgardens IF 22 47 21 +26 41
4 BK Hacken 22 39 30 +9 36
5 Malmo FF 22 37 33 +4 33
6 Vasteras SK FK 22 34 35 -1 35
7 IF Elfsborg 22 31 22 +9 37
8 AIK Stockholm 22 31 34 -3 33
9 IFK Goteborg 22 31 41 -10 32
10 IF Brommapojkarna 22 30 36 -6 27
11 Gais 22 28 20 +8 30
12 Mjallby AIF 22 27 38 -11 22
13 Orgryte IS 22 25 49 -24 15
14 Kalmar FF 22 21 36 -15 19
15 Degerfors IF 22 19 34 -15 19
16 Halmstad 22 16 40 -24 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Kalmar FF 22 1.6 0.5 +1.1 19
2 IFK Goteborg 22 1.9 0.9 +1.0 32
3 Malmo FF 22 1.3 0.6 +0.7 33
4 AIK Stockholm 22 3.8 3.2 +0.6 33
5 Djurgardens IF 22 0.5 1.6 -1.1 41
6 Mjallby AIF 22 2.8 5.1 -2.3 22
7 Sirius 22 — — — 51
8 Hammarby FF 22 — — — 43
9 IF Elfsborg 22 — — — 37
10 BK Hacken 22 — — — 36
11 Vasteras SK FK 22 — — — 35
12 Gais 22 — — — 30
13 IF Brommapojkarna 22 — — — 27
14 Degerfors IF 22 — — — 19
15 Orgryte IS 22 — — — 15
16 Halmstad 22 — — — 14