Logan Lightning shows strong steam with a sharp odds move (-18%) and closing edge (7.55%). However, the market probability aligns closely with the model probability, reducing confidence in value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor the away side.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.10
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.10
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.10
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 12/45 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 98.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Pass
Ranked 19/54 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 95.37). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-04
Pass
Ranked 26/66 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.65). Main risk: N/A.
The match between Kairat Almaty and Okzhetpes shows a strong historical pattern with a positive CLV rate of 52% and a closing edge of 5.21pp. The market is repricing sharply, and the model probability exceeds the market probability significantly. Main risk: The elo and xG differences favor Kairat Almaty, which could reduce the likelihood of a draw.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size76
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.30
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.30
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.30
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 4/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Candidate pick
@ 4.30
2026-07-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.30
2026-07-04
Pass
Ranked 5/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.4). Main risk: N/A.
The Gold Coast Knights vs Lions match has a closing edge of 5.67pp and a positive historical CLV rate of 52%. The market is repricing sharply, and the model probability is higher than the market probability. Main risk: The negative elo and xG differences suggest Lions may have a slight edge.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size76
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.20
2026-06-15
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=17, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=32.5h)
2026-06-16
Lens filter
Lens reject: historical sample must be ≥50; historical CLV rate must be ≥55%. (Current: steam=15, breadth=0%, signal=model_edge, kickoff_in=8.5h)
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 6/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-03
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-03
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-04
Pass
Ranked 6/10 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-05
Candidate pick
@ 4.20
2026-07-05
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.20
2026-07-06
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be <8pp (Pattern axis); posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=88, breadth=77%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=32.3h, hist_n=568, hist_clv_rate=2%)
2026-07-07
Lens filter
Lens reject: posterior CLV must be ≥52%. (Current: steam=67, breadth=77%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=8.3h, hist_n=548, hist_clv_rate=2%)
The Sturt Lions vs Playford City Patriots match shows a closing edge of 5.72pp and a historical CLV rate of 52%. The model leads the market, and the odds are attractive for a draw. Main risk: The low xG and elo differences make the outcome less predictable.
Pattern Evidence
Pattern Confidence:
Moderate(B)
Sample Size76
Historical CLV52%
Historical ROI+33.9%
Coverage TierLow
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.18
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 4.18
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.18
2026-07-02
Pass
Ranked 7/9 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 64.1). Main risk: N/A.
Melbourne City II has seen a significant odds drift from 1.83 to 2.35, driven by market steam. However, the model probability (35.17%) is below the market's implied probability (42.55%), suggesting the market may still be overestimating their chances. The Elo difference (-103.1) also favors Altona Magic. Main risk: Melbourne City II's odds drift could reflect genuine concerns about their form or lineup, which might justify fading the home side.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
2.35
2026-07-01
Candidate pick
@ 2.35
2026-07-01
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.35
2026-07-02
Pass
LLM did not select this match (rank 2/6, pre-LLM score 75.28). Main risk: N/A.
