Weston Bears have strong steam and sharp repricing, indicating significant market interest. The closing edge is high at 28.93%, and the model probability of 39.46% is well above the market probability of 10.53%. Main risk: High volatility and the significant elo difference favoring Melbourne City.
2026-07-26
Replaced with updated pick
@ 9.50(Candidate pick 41.00)
—
Closing
@ 9.21
2America Mineiro vs Goias1-0
✓ Correct
Serie B
2026-07-26
BETAmerica Mineiro Win
3.00
3.05
-0.6pp
78
🔥
▾
Entry
65d ago
3.00
→
Expected Closing
3.05
Expected CLV
-0.6pp
Why
America Mineiro shows strong drift with a high closing edge of 28.97% and a model probability of 62.3%, which is nearly double the market probability of 33.33%. The xG difference of 1.13 is favorable. Main risk: Elo difference slightly favors Goias.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 16/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 90.22). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-26
Candidate pick
@ 3.00
—
Closing
@ 3.05
3FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC2-1
✓ Correct
K League 1
2026-07-26
BETFC Anyang Win
4.00
4.08
-0.5pp
80
⚡
▾
Entry
65d ago
4.00
→
Expected Closing
4.08
Expected CLV
-0.5pp
Why
FC Anyang has strong drift and a very high closing edge of 32.12%. The model probability of 57.12% is significantly higher than the market probability of 25%. The xG difference of 0.91 supports the pick. Main risk: Elo difference favors Gangwon FC.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.00
2026-07-24
Pass
Ranked 32/148 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 74.85). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 23/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 88.28). Main risk: N/A.
1Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets0-2
✗ Incorrect
First League
2026-07-26
BETDunav Ruse Win
9.00
7.57
+2.1pp
75
🔥
▾
Entry
65d ago
9.00
→
Expected Closing
7.57
Expected CLV
+2.1pp
Why
Dunav Ruse has strong steam and sharp repricing with odds dropping significantly from 15.0 to 9.0. Model probability suggests value. Main risk: Ludogorets has a significant Elo and xG advantage.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.00
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 29/35 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.56). Main risk: N/A.
3 de Noviembre has seen a notable odds drop from 9.0 to 6.5, supported by strong steam and market repricing. Model probability exceeds market probability, indicating potential value. Main risk: The match is still far away, and market sentiment could shift.
Weston Bears have experienced a sharp odds drop from 26.0 to 9.5, indicating strong market support. The model probability is significantly higher than the market probability, suggesting value. Main risk: Melbourne City is a much stronger team on paper, and volatility is high.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
9.50
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 26/35 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 19.00
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 19.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 9/96 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 99.07). Main risk: N/A.
El Linqueño has experienced a strong drift with odds increasing from 4.1 to 6.5. Model probability is much higher than market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Elo and xG differences favor Gimnasia Concepción.
Shanghai Port II has seen a sharp odds drop, but the model probability only slightly exceeds the market probability, and historical patterns do not strongly support this move. Main risk: Market momentum could still push further in favor of Shanghai Port II.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.30
2026-07-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=29.2h, hist_n=219, hist_clv_rate=0%)
1Hradec Králové vs Pardubice2-1
✗ Incorrect
Czech Liga
2026-07-26
FADEValuation disagreementPardubice Win
3.30
3.23
+0.7pp
80
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
65d ago
3.30
→
Expected Closing
3.23
Expected CLV
+0.7pp
Why
The market has heavily steamed Pardubice, driving their odds down significantly from 4.0 to 3.3. However, the model probability for Pardubice (16.3%) is much lower than the market probability (30.3%), indicating an overreaction. Main risk: Potential underestimation of Pardubice's form or situational factors.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.30
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=111.9h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 4/18 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.07). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-26
Candidate pick
@ 3.30
—
Closing
@ 3.23
2CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv3-2
✗ Incorrect
First League
2026-07-26
FADEValuation disagreementBotev Plovdiv Win
5.00
5.03
-0.1pp
75
🔥
▾
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
65d ago
5.00
→
Expected Closing
5.03
Expected CLV
-0.1pp
Why
Botev Plovdiv has seen significant steam with odds shortening from 7.0 to 5.0. However, the model probability (18.68%) is below the market probability (20.0%), and the closing edge is negative. This suggests the market has overreacted. Main risk: Botev Plovdiv's potential to outperform expectations.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.00
2026-07-23
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=74, breadth=89%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=112.6h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
2026-07-24
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=61, breadth=73%, signal=market_steam, kickoff_in=88.4h, hist_n=439, hist_clv_rate=1%)
2026-07-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=88, breadth=82%, signal=strong_steam, kickoff_in=62.9h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
Entry
65d ago
3.75
→
Expected Closing
3.72
Expected CLV
+0.2pp
Why
Los Angeles Galaxy has received moderate steam, with odds dropping from 4.33 to 3.75. The model probability (21.36%) is lower than the market probability (26.67%), and the closing edge is negative. This suggests the market may be overestimating their chances. Main risk: Galaxy's recent form and potential for an upset.
⚡ Solid Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.75
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=120.6h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 15/18 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 51.0). Main risk: N/A.
