Weston Bears show strong steam signals with sharp market repricing and a significant closing edge of 34.2%. The model probability of 39.46% is much higher than the market probability, indicating value. Main risk: Melbourne City has a higher Elo rating and better historical performance.
Chico exhibits strong drift signals and a closing edge of 36.4%, with model probability significantly exceeding market probability. Their xG difference of 0.73 supports the pick. Main risk: Atletico Nacional's superior Elo rating and league experience.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
○Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
6.00
2026-07-21
Pass
Ranked 8/120 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 82.17). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 19/107 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 3 picks. (Pre-LLM score 79.25). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 6.00
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 6.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 39/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 81.85). Main risk: N/A.
Qingdao Jonoon has a strong drift signal and a closing edge of 34.71%, with model probability of 68.04% far exceeding market probability. Their xG difference of 1.47 is a positive indicator. Main risk: Lower Elo rating compared to Tianjin Teda.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.00
2026-07-20
Candidate pick
@ 2.52
2026-07-20
Withdrawn before validation
@ 2.52
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=43, breadth=71%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=103.6h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-22
Lens filter
Lens reject: edge must be ≥-3pp. (Current: steam=40, breadth=62%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=79.4h, hist_n=173, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 3.00
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 3.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 53/171 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 77.78). Main risk: N/A.
Radomlje has strong steam with odds dropping from 7.61 to 5.18. The closing edge is positive at 7.76 percentage points, and the model probability of 27.07% suggests value. Main risk: Koper has a slight advantage in Elo and xG metrics.
🔥 Very Strong Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
5.18
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=136.3h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
Weston Bears show strong steam with a notable odds drop from 26.0 to 19.0. The model probability of 39.46% far exceeds the market probability of 5.26%, offering significant value. Main risk: Melbourne City has a clear Elo advantage and better team quality.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
19.00
2026-07-23
Pass
Ranked 26/35 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 20 picks. (Pre-LLM score 76.7). Main risk: N/A.
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 19.00
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 19.00
2026-07-25
Pass
Ranked 9/96 in candidate pool, exceeding daily cap of 5 picks. (Pre-LLM score 99.07). Main risk: N/A.
South Adelaide Panthers have seen a notable odds drop from 6.5 to 5.5, with a strong steam signal. The model probability of 31.94% is higher than the market probability of 18.18%. Main risk: Adelaide Olympic has a slight Elo advantage.
Gold Coast United has experienced a sharp odds drop from 6.0 to 4.75, indicating market support. The model probability of 29.25% exceeds the market probability of 21.05%. Main risk: Gold Coast Knights have a higher Elo rating and better xG metrics.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.75
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 4.75
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.75
2026-07-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥65. (Current: steam=52, breadth=46%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=4.9h, hist_n=172, hist_clv_rate=3%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
67d ago
3.90
→
Expected Closing
2.00
Expected CLV
+24.4pp
Why
Sportivo Trinidense's odds have sharply dropped, but the model probability is significantly lower than the market probability, indicating steam-driven overvaluation. Main risk: Cerro Porteno's strong Elo and xG advantage could still dominate at home.
🔥 Sharp Money Signal
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
✓ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
3.90
2026-07-23
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=66, breadth=40%, signal=sharp_led, kickoff_in=43.8h, hist_n=434, hist_clv_rate=1%)
Historical signal — current rules would not generate this fade.
⚠️ Major Price Change
⚠️ Major Price Change
Entry
67d ago
4.10
→
Expected Closing
2.04
Expected CLV
+24.6pp
Why
Dalian Zhixing's odds have drifted upward, but the model probability remains far below market pricing. Elo disadvantage further supports fading the away side. Main risk: Hangzhou Greentown's form could falter despite their Elo edge.
Withdrawn before validation
Decision Lifecycle
✓Pick Generated
✓Market Tracked
✓Closed
○ROI Recorded
Bet Tracking Timeline
Candidate pick @
4.10
2026-07-21
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70; model must disagree with market. (Current: steam=40, breadth=100%, signal=tracking, kickoff_in=130.1h, hist_n=218, hist_clv_rate=0%)
2026-07-24
Candidate pick
@ 4.10
2026-07-24
Withdrawn before validation
@ 4.10
2026-07-25
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=52, breadth=77%, signal=market_drift, kickoff_in=32.7h, hist_n=172, hist_clv_rate=3%)
2026-07-26
Lens filter
Lens reject: steam score must be ≥70. (Current: steam=68, breadth=85%, signal=strong_drift, kickoff_in=9.7h, hist_n=446, hist_clv_rate=1%)
