Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. 1. Deild / NSÍ II vs B36 II

Prediction Audit: NSÍ II vs B36 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NSÍ II NSÍ II
Jun 27, 2026 - 13:15
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
B36 II B36 II

The model missed the final outcome (B36 II win 0–1).

The model had projected NSÍ II at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NSÍ II B36 II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices NSÍ II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NSÍ II -6.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NSÍ II 38.6% 44.7% -6.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.9% 24.0% +3.9 pp Aligned
B36 II 33.5% 31.2% +2.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates NSÍ II's win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.6%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was B36 II win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on NSÍ II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned NSÍ II; match finished B36 II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NSÍ II by 6.1 percentage points (44.7% vs model 38.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 20:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NSÍ II 38.6% · Draw 27.9% · B36 II 33.5%
    • xG · NSÍ II 1.32 — B36 II 1.28
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NSÍ II 1.99 · Draw 3.68 · B36 II 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · NSÍ II 44.7% · Draw 24.1% · B36 II 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 13:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · NSÍ II 2.01 · Draw 3.74 · B36 II 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · NSÍ II 44.7% · Draw 24.0% · B36 II 31.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 13:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result B36 II win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2204661

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result B36 II win · NSÍ II 0–1 B36 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: NSÍ II vs B36 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 13:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): NSÍ II 1.32 — B36 II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 B71 24 19 2 3 59
2 Víkingur II 24 17 3 4 54
3 Suduroy 24 16 2 6 50
4 ÍF II 24 10 7 7 37
5 TB 24 8 7 9 31
6 B36 II 24 9 2 13 29
7 NSÍ II 24 7 4 13 25
8 Hoyvík 24 7 2 15 23
9 HB II 24 5 7 12 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 B71 24 76 25 +51 59
2 Suduroy 24 73 33 +40 50
3 Víkingur II 24 61 39 +22 54
4 ÍF II 24 55 48 +7 37
5 B36 II 24 51 62 -11 29
6 TB 24 46 51 -5 31
7 Hoyvík 24 36 67 -31 23
8 NSÍ II 24 34 55 -21 25
9 HB II 24 30 41 -11 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 30 71 -41 11